This report provides the methods and results of climate change vulnerability assessments of 119 species in New York.
Elizabeth Byers and Sam Norris. 2011. Climate change vulnerability assessment of species of concern in West Virginia. West Virginia Division of Natural Resources, Elkins, WV.
This project assessed and ranked the relative climate change vulnerability of 185 animal and plant species in West Virginia.
This presentation from Professor David Culver of American University provides an update to the Steering Committee on the Appalachian LCC funded research project that is assembling and identifying key location and classification data while developing products that depict and map cave and karst habitats and biological resources across the Appalachian LCC. Developing a consistent classification system and mapping for cave and karst habitats is a foundational need for these highly unique habitats.This project will develop cave and karst data and a georeferenced suite of products that are consistent in methodology to support larger-scale planning efforts, yet usable at scales that will support local resource decision-makers.
You can also watch this video on our Vimeo Channel.
This video presentation from Mark Anderson and Arlene Olivero Sheldon of The Nature Conservancy provides an update to the Steering Committee on this Appalachian LCC funded research project. A Stream Classification System for the Appalachian LCC is developing a hierarchical classification for stream and river systems and a GIS map for aquatic ecosystems. The study will include a report describing the methods used to evaluate and develop the classification system, a literature review of existing stream classifications, and a GIS stream data set.
You can also watch the video on our Vimeo Channel.
This video presentation from Paul Leonard of the Appalachian LCC and Clemson University walks through the development of a regional conservation plan for the Cooperative using an interactive and iterative spatial prioritization framework. Using available data and modeling approaches, researchers from Clemson University developed a suite of conservation planning models that include site selection, ecological threat assessments, and broad ranging habitat and ecological connectivity analyses. The research team worked closely with steering committee-organized technical teams from each major region in our LCC to help guide the iterative feedback loops which informed the conservation design. The research team is now working on the second phase of this conservation planning and design modeling that will integrate aquatic and cultural resource components into the design work.
You can also watch the video on our Vimeo Channel.
How should the Appalachian LCC acquire information about the vulnerability of Appalachian species and habitats to climate change to share with its partners? This report summarizes the findings and recommendations of a seven-member Expert Panel that sought to answer this question identified as a major research priority. The Panel addressed three aspects of the question: the selection of species and habitats to assess, approaches to vulnerability assessment, and the availability of downscaled climate data.
Among a host of other critical ecosystem functions, intact riparian forests can help to reduce vulnerability of coldwater stream habitats to warming regional temperatures. Restoring and conserving these forests can therefore be an important part of regional and landscape-scale conservation plans, but managers need science and decision-support tools to help determine when these actions will be most effective. To help fill this need, we developed the Riparian Prioritization for Climate Change Resilience (RPCCR) web-based decision support tool to quickly and easily identify, based on current riparian cover and predicted vulnerability to air temperature warming, sites that are priority candidates for riparian restoration and conservation.
The 1st phase of the Aquatic Ecological Flows project involved reviewing existing tools and gathering available data within the project area on hydrologic and ecological flow model(s) that would be suitable for the region. This Report details that work.
Identifying aquatic ecosystems requires a classification of stream and lake features into recognizable entities or categories. Although a number of nationally recognized terrestrial community classifications exist, the most accepted being the National Vegetation Classification System (Grossman et al. 1998), currently there is no national or international standard for classifying aquatic communities or ecosystems. Despite the lack of a national aquatic community classification, aquatic ecosystem classifications and frameworks have been developed at a variety of spatial scales. Their goal is often to reflect the distribution of aqutic biological communities. These assemblages recur across the landscape under similar habitat conditions and ecological processes (Higgins et al. 2005). The methods used to develop aquatic ecosystem classifications vary widely, as do the biotic and abiotic variables considered in the classifications. The classifications generally fall into two broad categories: 1) taxonomic or bio-ecosystem classifications and 2) environmental or geo-physical ecosystem classifications (Rowe and Barnes 1994); however some classifications combine aspects of both.
Stream flows are essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Integrated modeling approaches assessing the impact of changes in climate, land use, and water withdrawals on stream flows and the subsequent impact of changes in flow regime on aquatic biota at multiple spatial scales are necessary to insure an adequate supply of water for humans and healthy river ecosystems. The combined application of simple, large scale models with more complex, high resolution models has the potential to provide for more robust climate change impact studies, which focus on maintaining a better balance between the availability of water to support aquatic assemblages while conserving water for long-term human needs than using either approach in isolation.
Hydrological modeling for flow-ecology science in the Southeastern United States -
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Traditional urban growth models are very localized and data-intensive and lack the capability to be applied across large regions, in response to these limitations the North Carolina Cooperative Research Unit began using the USGS SLEUTH urban growth model to develop urbanization scenarios as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP). Extensive modifications of the model framework and calibration were undertaken that resulted in the ability to rapidly develop urbanization scenarios for very large regions, such as the Appalachian and Gulf Coastal Plain Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). This new modeling effort allows LCC’s to address fundamental questions that affect conservation planning over decadal time scales.
Developing long-term urbanization scenarios for the Appalachian and Gulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks LCCs as part of the Southeast Regional Assessment Project -
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Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, changing the dates when birds arrive to breed and when flowers bloom in spring, and shifting the ranges of species as they move to cooler places. One problem for wildlife as their ranges shift is that their path is often impeded – their habitats have become fragmented by agriculture and urbanization, presenting barriers to their migration. Because of this, the most common recommended strategy to protect wildlife as climate changes is to connect their habitats, providing them safe passage. There are great challenges to implementing this strategy in the southeastern U.S., however, because most intervening lands between habitat patches are held in private ownership. We will combine data on key wildlife species and their habitats throughout the southeastern U.S. with new computer modeling technologies that allow us to identify key connections that will be robust to regional and global changes in climate and land use.
Connectivity for Climate Change in the Southeastern United States -
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Conservation practitioners must navigate many challenges to advance effective natural-resource management in the presence of multiple uncertainties. Numerous climatic and ecological changes remain on the horizon, and their eventual consequences are not completely understood. Even so, their influences are expected to impact important resources and the people that depend on them across local, regional, and sometimes global scales. Although forecasts of future conditions are almost always imperfect, decision makers are increasingly expected to communicate and use uncertain information when making policy choices that affect multiple user groups. The degree to which management objectives are met can depend on 1) how critical uncertainties are identified and accounted for, and 2) effective communication among user groups, scientists, and resource
managers.
Communicating and Using Uncertain Scientific Information in the Production of ‘Actionable Science’ -
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Predicting population responses to climate change requires an understanding of how population dynamics vary over space and time. For instance, a measured indicator may vary among repeated samples from a single site, from site to site within a lake, from lake to lake, and over time. Although variability has historically been viewed as an impediment to understanding population responses to ecological changes, the structure of variation can also be an important part of the response. In this project, we will build upon recently completed analyses of fish population data in the Great Lakes basin to help predict how spatial and temporal variation in fish populations may respond to climate change and other important drivers.
Characterization of spatial and temporal variability in fishes in response to climate change -
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Few previous studies have focused on how climate change may impact headwater systems, despite the importance of these areas for aquatic refugia. The lack of these studies has resulted in the majority of climate impact assessments focusing on conservation of ecological systems at broad levels, and has not focused on turning results into useful and actionable information for managers on the ground. A critical and timely research question is: “What data and modeling frameworks are needed to provide scientists reliable, climate-informed, water temperature estimates for freshwater ecosystems that can assist watershed management decision making?” This research will answer this through two primary activities: 1) gathering and compiling existing stream temperature data within the DOI-Northeast region and subsequent deployment of data loggers to areas where additional data are needed, and 2) an intercomparison of state-of-the-art statistical and deterministic stream temperature models to evaluate their ability to replicate point stream temperature measurements and model scalability to non-gaged sites with the Northeast region.
Bringing people, data, and models together - addressing impacts of climate change on stream temperature -
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