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The effect of permafrost thaw on old carbon release and net carbon exchange from tundra
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Permafrost soils in boreal and Arctic ecosystems store almost twice as much carbon1,2 as is currently present in the atmosphere3. Permafrost thaw and the microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon is considered one of the most likely positive climate feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a warmer world1,2,4–7. The rate of carbon release from permafrost soils is highly uncertain, but it is crucial for predicting the strength and timing of this carbon-cycle feedback effect, and thus how important permafrost thaw will be for climate change this century and beyond1,2,4–7. Sustained transfers of carbon to the atmosphere that could cause a significant positive feedback to climate change must come from old carbon, which forms the bulk of the perma- frost carbon pool that accumulated over thousands of years8–11. Here we measure net ecosystem carbon exchange and the radio- carbon age of ecosystem respiration in a tundra landscape under- going permafrost thaw12 to determine the influence of old carbon loss on ecosystem carbon balance. We find that areas that thawed over the past 15 years had 40 per cent more annual losses of old carbon than minimally thawed areas, but had overall net eco- system carbon uptake as increased plant growth offset these losses. In contrast, areas that thawed decades earlier lost even more old carbon, a 78 per cent increase over minimally thawed areas; this old carbon loss contributed to overall net ecosystem carbon release despite increased plant growth. Our data document significant losses of soil carbon with permafrost thaw that, over decadal timescales, overwhelms increased plant carbon uptake13–15 at rates that could make permafrost a large biospheric carbon source in a warmer world.
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The role of stomata in sensing and driving environmental change
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Stomata, the small pores on the surfaces of leaves and stalks, regulate the flow of gases in and out of leaves and thus plants as a whole. They adapt to local and global changes on all timescales from minutes to millennia. Recent data from diverse fields are establishing their central importance to plant physiology, evolution and global ecology. Stomatal morphology, distribution and behaviour respond to a spectrum of signals, from intracellular signalling to global climatic change. Such concerted adaptation results from a web of control systems, reminiscent of a ‘scale-free’ network, whose untangling requires integrated approaches beyond those currently used.
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rainfall preceded by air passage over forests
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Vegetation affects precipitation patterns by mediating moisture, energy and trace-gas fluxes between the surface and atmosphere1. When forests are replaced by pasture or crops, evapotranspiration of moisture from soil and vegetation is often diminished, leading to reduced atmospheric humidity and potentially suppressing precipitation2,3. Climate models predict that large-scale tropical deforestation causes reduced regional precipitation4–10, although the magnitude of the effect is model9,11 and resolution8 dependent. In contrast, observational studies have linked deforestation to increased precipitation locally12–14 but have been unable to explore the impact of large-scale deforestation. Here we use satellite remote-sensing data of tropical precipitation and vegetation, combined with simulated atmospheric transport patterns, to assess the pan-tropical effect of forests on tropical rainfall. We find that for more than 60 per cent of the tropical land surface (latitudes 30 degrees south to 30 degrees north), air that has passed over extens- ive vegetation in the preceding few days produces at least twice as much rain as air that has passed over little vegetation. We demonstrate that this empirical correlation is consistent with evapotranspiration maintaining atmospheric moisture in air that
passes over extensive vegetation. We combine these empirical rela- tionships with current trends of Amazonian deforestation to estimate reductions of 12 and 21 per cent in wet-season and dry- season precipitation respectively across the Amazon basin by 2050, due to less-efficient moisture recycling. Our observation-based results complement similar estimates from climate models4–10, in which the physical mechanisms and feedbacks at work could be explored in more detail.
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New particle formation in forests inhibited by isoprene emissions
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It has been suggested that volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are involved in organic aerosol formation, which in turn affects radiative forcing and climate1. The most abundant VOCs emitted by terrestrial vegetation are isoprene and its derivatives, such as monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes 2. New particle formation in boreal regions is related to monoterpene emissions3 and causes an estimated negative radiative forcing4 of about 20.2 to 20.9 W m22. The annual variation in aerosol growth rates during particle nucleation events correlates with the seasonality of mono- terpene emissions of the local vegetation, with a maximum during summer5. The frequency of nucleation events peaks, however, in spring and autumn5. Here we present evidence from simulation experiments conducted in a plant chamber that isoprene can sig- nificantly inhibit new particle formation. The process leading to the observed decrease in particle number concentration is linked to the high reactivity of isoprene with the hydroxyl radical (OH). The suppression is stronger with higher concentrations of iso- prene, but with little dependence on the specific VOC mixture emitted by trees. A parameterization of the observed suppression factor as a function of isoprene concentration suggests that the number of new particles produced depends on the OH concentra- tion and VOCs involved in the production of new particles undergo three to four steps of oxidation by OH. Our measure- ments simulate conditions that are typical for forested regions and may explain the observed seasonality in the frequency of aero- sol nucleation events, with a lower number of nucleation events during summer compared to autumn and spring5. Biogenic emissions of isoprene are controlled by temperature and light2, and if the relative isoprene abundance of biogenic VOC emissions increases in response to climate change or land use change, the new particle formation potential may decrease, thus damping the aerosol negative radiative forcing effect.
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Successful range-expanding plants experience less above-ground and below-ground enemy impact
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Many species are currently moving to higher latitudes and altitudes1–3. However, little is known about the factors that influence the future performance of range-expanding species in their new habitats. Here we show that range-expanding plant species from a riverine area were better defended against shoot and root enemies than were related native plant species growing in the same area. We grew fifteen plant species with and without non-coevolved polyphagous locusts and cosmopolitan, polyphagous aphids. Contrary to our expectations, the locusts performed more poorly on the range-expanding plant species than on the congeneric native plant species, whereas the aphids showed no difference. The shoot herbivores reduced the biomass of the native plants more than they did that of the congeneric range expanders. Also, the range-expanding plants developed fewer pathogenic effects4,5 in their root-zone soil than did the related native species. Current predictions forecast biodiversity loss due to limitations in the ability of species to adjust to climate warming conditions in their range 6–8. Our results strongly suggest that the plants that shift ranges towards higher latitudes and altitudes may include potential invaders, as the successful range expanders may experience less control by above-ground or below- ground enemies than the natives.
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Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
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Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
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Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne
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Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures1. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain1–3, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid poten- tially dangerous levels of global warming4–8. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions9–11. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more compre- hensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emis- sion pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide- induced warming of 2 6C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 6C.
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Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 C
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More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 6C or below (relative to pre-industrial levels) as a guiding principle for mitigation efforts to reduce climate change risks, impacts and damages1,2. However, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions corresponding to a specified maximum warming are poorly known owing to uncertainties in the carbon cycle and the climate response. Here we provide a comprehensive probabilistic analysis aimed at quantifying GHG emission budgets for the 2000–50 period that would limit warming throughout the twenty-first century to below 2 6C, based on a combination of published distributions of climate system properties and observational con- straints. We show that, for the chosen class of emission scenarios, both cumulative emissions up to 2050 and emission levels in 2050 are robust indicators of the probability that twenty-first century warming will not exceed 26C relative to pre-industrial temperatures. Limiting cumulative CO2 emissions over 2000–50 to 1,000Gt CO2 yields a 25% probability of warming exceeding 2 6C—and a limit of 1,440 Gt CO2 yields a 50% probability—given a representative estimate of the distri- bution of climate system properties. As known 2000–06 CO2 emissions3 were234 Gt CO2, less than half the proven economi-cally recoverable oil, gas and coal reserves 4–6 can still be emitted up to 2050 to achieve such a goal. Recent G8 Communique ́s7 envisage halved global GHG emissions by 2050, for which we estimate a 12– 45% probability of exceeding 2 6C—assuming 1990 as emission base year and a range of published climate sensitivity distributions. Emissions levels in 2020 are a less robust indicator, but for the scenarios considered, the probability of exceeding 26C rises to 53–87% if global GHG emissions are still more than 25% above 2000 levels in 2020.
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Working Lands for Wildlife (WLFW)
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Grasslands and Savannas Lead Image
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Grasslands and Savannas Lead Image
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