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Downscaling Scenarios of Climate Change Project to Map Entire Appalachian LCC Region
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A DOI Southeast Climate Science Center funded project will be evaluating the latest generation of global climate models to generate scenarios of future change to climate, hydrology, and vegetation for the Southeastern U.S. as well as the entire range of the Appalachian LCC.
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News & Events
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2013 SN Portfolio (Full Report)
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In February 2013, almost 50 experts from a wide range of technical background in both natural and social sciences, as well as geographic expertise across the entire region, volunteered to participate in the annual review of the Appalachian LCC Science Needs Portfolio. 2013 marked the first revision of the Portfolio.
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2013 Science Needs Portfolio
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PDF Thematic Areas
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Climate Change
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2013 SN Portfolio: Mission to create an effective adaptation strategy for climate change based on the best available science.
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2013 Science Needs Portfolio
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PDF Thematic Areas
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Virginia’s Climate Modeling and Species Vulnerability Assessment
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The National Wildlife Federation (NWF) is excited to announce the publication of Virginia’s Climate Modeling and Species Vulnerability Assessment: How Climate Data Can Inform Management and Conservation. This report is the culmination of over 4 years of effort by NWF, Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries (DGIF), Conservation Management Institute, and Kutztown University to downscale climate data for Virginia and use that in a species modeling effort to project how a selections of species (wildlife, fish, and plants) may change their distribution across the landscape based on climate change.
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News & Events
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Clark, J.S. et al. Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: climate and competition tracking of demographic rates
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Author's Abstract Forest responses to climate change will depend on demographic impacts in the context of competition. Current models used to predict species responses, termed climate envelope models (CEMs), are controversial, because (i) calibration and prediction are based on correlations in space (CIS) between species abundance and climate, rather than responses to climate change over time (COT), and (ii) they omit competition. To determine the relative importance of COT, CIS, and competition for light, we applied a longitudinal analysis of 27 000 individual trees over 6–18 years subjected to experimental and natural variation in risk factors. Sensitivities and climate and resource tracking identify which species are vulnerable to these risk factors and in what ways. Results show that responses to COT differ from those predicted based on CIS. The most important impact is the effect of spring temperature on fecundity, rather than any input variable on growth or survival. Of secondary importance is growing season moisture. Species in the genera Pinus, Ulmus, Magnolia, and Fagus are particularly vulnerable to climate variation. However, the effect of competition on growth and mortality risk exceeds the effects of climate variation in space or time for most species. Because sensitivities to COT and competition are larger than CIS, current models miss the most important effects. By directly comparing sensitivity to climate in time and space, together with competition, the approach identifies which species are sensitive to climate change and why, including the heretofore overlooked impact on fecundity.
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Literature
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Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?
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Author's abstract:
We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.
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Literature
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Workshop Approach for Developing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Actions for Natural Resource Management Agencies in the United States
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Workshop Approach for Developing Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and Actions for Natural Resource Management Agencies in the United States Image
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Resources
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General Resources Holdings
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The Planning for Growth and Open Space Conservation Webinar Series
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Planning for Climate Change Adaptation: Considerations for Forests, Wildlife, and Land Use
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Events
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Evaluating Effect of Climate Change on River Flows in the Clinch River Basin
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A new project by the U.S. Geological Survey is evaluating the potential cascading effects to river flows and quality aquatic habitat due to changes in climate within an ecologically important area of the Appalachian LCC. A greater understanding of likely flow changes within the Virginia portion of the Clinch River Basin will allow managers to better respond to alterations and degradation of physical habitat. Information and results from this study will also provide managers with methods to be applied throughout the Appalachian LCC region. (Photo by Virginia Department of Game and Inland Fisheries)
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Research
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Conservation Cooridor Digest
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Monthly information on management, science, and climate change from Conservation Cooridor, an organization that provides up-to-date findings from science that will inform applied conservation. Conservation Cooridor also highlights new innovations in applied conservation, with the goal of guiding the direction of applied science toward management needs.
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News & Events
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Conservation Newsletters
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Conservation Corridor Newsletters
