-
Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
-
Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century,
but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming
predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science
of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and
approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and
microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that
different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of
climate change, including the extent of species’ natural resilience. We introduce a framework
that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of
conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework
and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and
genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
A Determination of the Cloud Feedback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade
-
Estimates of Earth's climate sensitivity are uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in the
long-term cloud feedback. I estimated the magnitude of the cloud feedback in response to short-term
climate variations by analyzing the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget from March 2000 to February
2010. Over this period, the short-term cloud feedback had a magnitude of 0.54 T 0.74 (2s) watts
per square meter per kelvin, meaning that it is likely positive. A small negative feedback is possible,
but one large enough to cancel the climate’s positive feedbacks is not supported by these observations.
Both long- and short-wave components of short-term cloud feedback are also likely positive.
Calculations of short-term cloud feedback in climate models yield a similar feedback. I find no
correlation in the models between the short- and long-term cloud feedbacks.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Ecological Restoration in the Light of Ecological History
-
Ecological history plays many roles in ecological restoration, most notably as a tool to identify and
characterize appropriate targets for restoration efforts. However, ecological history also reveals deep human
imprints on many ecological systems and indicates that secular climate change has kept many targets
moving at centennial to millennial time scales. Past and ongoing environmental changes ensure that many
historical restoration targets will be unsustainable in the coming decades. Ecological restoration efforts
should aim to conserve and restore historical ecosystems where viable, while simultaneously preparing to
design or steer emerging novel ecosystems to ensure maintenance of ecological goods and services.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
A-maize-ing Diversity
-
Analysis of a new maize resource reveals that a large number of genetic loci with small effects may underlie the wide variation seen in traits such as flowering time.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest
-
Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as
anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and
changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across
Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events.
Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts
observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected
to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per
hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 × 1015 to
1.6 × 1015 grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the
potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Biodiversity and Climate Change
-
Efforts to elucidate the effect of climate change on biodiversity with detailed data sets and refined models reach novel conclusions.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Amid Worrisome Signs of Warming, ‘Climate Fatigue’ Sets In
-
As scientists debate whether climate is changing faster than anticipated, some worry that a
drumbeat of dire warnings may be helping to erode U.S. public concerns about global warming
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Biodiversity Under Global Change
-
Many common plant species, such as prairie grasses, have evolved traits for the efficient capture and use of two key resources that limit terrestrial productivity: nitrogen (N) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Over the past 60 years, human activity has vastly increased the availability of these resources. Atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased by 40%, and N availability has more than doubled. These changes are likely to have important consequences for species interactions, community structure, and ecosystem functioning. On
page 1399 of this issue, Reich investigates one important consequence, biodiversity loss, based on a long-term elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization experiment.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems
-
Integrated studies of coupled human and natural systems reveal new and complex patterns and processes not evident when studied by social or natural scientists separately. Synthesis of six case studies from around the world shows that couplings between human and natural systems vary across space, time, and organizational units. They also exhibit nonlinear dynamics with thresholds, reciprocal feedback loops, time lags, resilience, heterogeneity, and surprises. Furthermore, past couplings have legacy effects on present conditions and future possibilities.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Biodiversity in a Warmer World
-
A new framework helps to understand how species ranges change under global warming.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents