Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century,
but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming
predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science
of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and
approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and
microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that
different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of
climate change, including the extent of species’ natural resilience. We introduce a framework
that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of
conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework
and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and
genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.
Publication Date: 2011
Credits: SCIENCE VOL 332 1 APRIL 2011
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