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A safe operating space for humanity
Identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries that must not be transgressed could help prevent human activities from causing unacceptable environmental ...
Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere
Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we ...
Carbon loss from an unprecedented Arctic tundra wildfire
Arctic tundra soils store large amounts of carbon (C) in organic soil layers hundreds to thousands of years old that insulate, and in some cases maintain, ...
Activation of old carbon by erosion of coastal and subsea permafrost in Arctic Siberia
The future trajectory of greenhouse gas concentrations depends on interactions between climate and the biogeosphere1,2. Thawing of Arctic permafrost could ...
Analysing fossil-fuel displacement
It is commonly assumed that fossil fuels can be replaced by alternative forms of energy. Now research challenges this assumption, and highlights the role of ...
Energy consumption and the unexplained winter warming over northern Asia and North America
The worldwide energy consumption in 2006 was close to 498 exajoules. This is equivalent to an energy convergence of 15.8 TW into the populated regions, where ...
Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress
Forests provide innumerable ecological, societal and climatological benefits, yet they are vulnerable to drought and temperature extremes. Climate-driven ...
A drought-induced pervasive increase in tree mortality across Canada’s boreal forests
Drought-induced tree mortality is expected to increase worldwide under projected future climate changes (1–4). The Canadian boreal forests, which occupy about ...
An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot
Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological ...
Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change
Targets for stabilizing climate change are often based on considerations of the impacts of different levels of global warming, usually assessing the time of ...
Autopsy of two mega-heatwaves
Record-breaking heatwaves in 2003 and 2010 surprised both the public and experts. Observations provide new insights into how temperatures escalated to ...
A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. ...
Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation
The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the ...
Climatic change and wetland desiccation cause amphibian decline in Yellowstone National Park
Amphibians are a bellwether for environmental degradation, even in natural ecosystems such as Yellowstone National Park in the western United States, where ...
Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions
Monsoon systems influence the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. During the Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has ...
Climate, carbon cycling, and deep-ocean ecosystem
Climate variation affects surface ocean processes and the production of organic carbon, which ultimately comprises the primary food supply to the deep-sea ...
Climate negotiations under scientific uncertainty
How does uncertainty about “dangerous” climate change affect the prospects for international cooperation? Climate negotiations usually are depicted as a ...
Evolution of natural and social science interactions in global change research programs
Efforts to develop a global understanding of the functioning of the Earth as a system began in the mid-1980s. This effort necessitated linking knowledge from ...
Adapting to flood risk under climate change
Flooding is the most common natural hazard and third most damaging globally after storms and earthquakes. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase ...
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?
Environmental problems have contributed to numerous collapses of civilizations in the past. ... But today, for the first time, humanity’s global ...
Climate Change and Existing Law: A Survey of Legal Issues Past, Present, and Future
Summary: This report surveys existing law for legal issues that have arisen, or may arise in the future, on account of climate change and government responses ...
A holistic approach to climate targets
An assessment of allowable carbon emissions that factors in multiple climate targets finds smaller permissible emission budgets than those inferred from ...
Extreme climatic event drives range contraction of a habitat-forming species
Species distributions have shifted in response to global warming in all major ecosystems on the Earth. Despite cogent evidence for these changes, the ...
A Measurable Planetary Boundary for the Biosphere
Terrestrial net primary (plant) production provides a measurable boundary for human consumption of Earth’s biological resources.
A Determination of the Cloud Feedback from Climate Variations over the Past Decade
Estimates of Earth's climate sensitivity are uncertain, largely because of uncertainty in the long-term cloud feedback. I estimated the magnitude of the cloud ...
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years
Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here we provide a broader perspective by ...
Adaptation: Planning for Climate Change and Its Effects on Federal Lands
National forest managers are charged with tackling the effects of climate change on the natural resources under their care. The Forest Service National ...
Aeolian process effects on vegetation communities in an arid grassland ecosystem
Many arid grassland communities are changing from grass dominance to shrub dominance, but the mechanisms involved in this conversion process are not ...
Climate-induced changes in the small mammal communities of the Northern Great Lakes Region
We use museum and other collection records to document large and extraordinarily rapid changes in the ranges and relative abundance of nine species of mammals ...
An Uncertain Future for Soil Carbon
Predictions of how rapidly the large amounts of carbon stored as soil organic matter will respond to warming are highly uncertain (1). Organic matter plays a ...
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