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Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model.pdf
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Inclusion of fundamental ecological interactions between carbon and nitrogen cycles in the land component of an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) leads to decreased carbon uptake associated with CO2 fertilization, and increased carbon uptake associated with warming of the climate system. The balance of these two opposing effects is to reduce the fraction of anthropogenic CO2 predicted to be sequestered in land ecosystems. The primary mechanism responsible for increased land carbon storage un- der radiatively forced climate change is shown to be fertilization of plant growth by increased mineralization of nitrogen directly associated with increased decomposition of soil organic matter under a warming climate, which in this particular model results in a negative gain for the climate-carbon feedback. Estimates for the land and ocean sink fractions of recent anthropogenic emissions are individually within the range of observational estimates, but the combined land plus ocean sink fractions produce an airborne fraction which is too high compared to observations. This bias is likely due in part to an underestimation of the ocean sink frac- tion. Our results show a significant growth in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions over the coming century, attributable in part to a steady decline in the ocean sink fraction. Comparison to experimental studies on the fate of radio-labeled nitrogen tracers in temperate forests indicates that the model representation of competition between plants and microbes for new mineral nitrogen resources is reasonable. Our results suggest a weaker dependence of net land carbon flux on soil moisture changes in tropical regions, and a stronger positive growth response to warming in those regions, than predicted by a similar AOGCM implemented without land carbon-nitrogen interactions. We expect that the between-model uncertainty in predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated anthropogenic climate change will be reduced as additional climate models introduce carbon-nitrogen cycle interactions in their land components.
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The evolution of growth rates on an expanding range edge
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Individuals in the vanguard of a species invasion face altered selective conditions when compared with conspecifics behind the invasion front. Assortment by dispersal ability on the expanding front, for example, drives the evolution of increased dispersal, which, in turn, leads to accel- erated rates of invasion. Here I propose an additional evolutionary mechanism to explain accelerating invasions: shifts in population growth rate (r). Because individuals in the van- guard face lower population density than those in established populations, they should (relative to individuals in established populations) experience greater r-selection. To test this possibility, I used the ongoing invasion of cane toads (Bufo marinus) across northern Australia. Life-history theory shows that the most efficient way to increase the rate of population growth is to reproduce earlier. Thus, I predict that toads on the invasion front will exhibit faster individual growth rates (and thus will reach breeding size earlier) than those from older populations. Using a common garden design, I show that this is indeed the case: both tadpoles and juvenile toads from frontal popu- lations grow around 30 per cent faster than those from older, long established populations. These results support theoretical predictions that r increases during range advance and highlight the importance of understanding the evolution of life history during range advance.
Keywords: Bufo marinus; invasive species; Rhinella marina; r-selection
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On the vapour trail of an atmospheric imprint in insects
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Terrestrial arthropods, at constant risk from desiccation, are highly sensitive to atmospheric temperature and humidity. A physiological marker of these abiotic conditions could highlight phenotypic adaptations, indicate niche partitioning, and predict responses to climate change for a group representing three-quarters of the Earth’s animal species. We show that the 18O composition of insect haemolymph is such a measure, providing a dynamic and quantitatively predictable signal for respiratory gas exchange and inputs from atmospheric humidity. Using American cockroaches (Periplaneta americana) under defined experimental conditions, we show that insects respiring at low humidity demon- strate the expected enrichment in the 18O composition of haemolymph because of evapor- ation. At high humidity, however, diffusional influx of atmospheric water vapour into the animal forces haemolymph to become depleted in 18O. Additionally, using cockroaches sampled from natural habitats, we show that the haemo- lymph 18O signature is transferred to the organic material of the insect’s exoskeleton. Insect cuticle, therefore, exhibits the mean atmospheric conditions surrounding the animals prior to moulting. This discovery will help to define the climatic tolerances of species and their habitat preferences, and offers a means of quantifying the balance between niche partitioning and ‘neutral’ processes in shaping complex tropical forest communities.
Keywords: stable isotopes; arthropods; niches; neutral theory; climate change
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How global extinctions impact regional biodiversity in mammals
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Phylogenetic diversity (PD) represents the evol- utionary history of a species assemblage and is a valuable measure of biodiversity because it cap- tures not only species richness but potentially also genetic and functional diversity. Preserving PD could be critical for maintaining the func- tional integrity of the world’s ecosystems, and species extinction will have a large impact on ecosystems in areas where the ecosystem cost per species extinction is high. Here, we show that impacts from global extinctions are linked to spatial location. Using a phylogeny of all mam- mals, we compare regional losses of PD against a model of random extinction. At regional scales, losses differ dramatically: several biodiversity hotspots in southern Asia and Amazonia will lose an unexpectedly large proportion of PD. Global analyses may therefore underestimate the impacts of extinction on ecosystem processes and function because they occur at finer spatial scales within the context of natural biogeography.
Keywords: phylogenetic diversity; biodiversity; threatened species; mammals; extinction
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Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems
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Most studies that forecast the ecological conse- quences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple exper- iments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates.
Keywords: climate change; ocean acidification; global warming; species interactions; ecosystem shift; productivity and consumption
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The bigger they come, the harder they fall: body size and prey abundance influence predator −prey ratios
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Large carnivores are highly threatened, yet the processes underlying their population declines are still poorly understood and widely debated. We explored how body mass and prey abundance influence carnivore density using data on 199 populations obtained across multiple sites for 11 carnivore species. We found that relative decreases in prey abundance resulted in a five- to sixfold greater decrease in the largest carnivores compared with the smallest species. We discuss a number of possible causes for this inherent vulnerability, but also explore a possible mechanistic link between predator size, ener- getics and population processes. Our results have important implications for carnivore ecol- ogy and conservation, demonstrating that larger species are particularly vulnerable to anthropo- genic threats to their environment, especially those which have an adverse affect on the abundance of their prey.
Keywords: carnivore ecology; predator–prey relationships; abundance scaling; climate change; metabolism
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Creating Wetlands: Primary Succession, Water Quality Changes, and Self-Design over 15 Years
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The succession of vegetation, soil development, water quality changes, and carbon and nitrogen dynamics are summarized in this article for a pair of 1-hectare flow-through-created riverine wetlands for their first 15 years. Wetland plant richness increased from 13 originally planted species to 116 species overall after 15 years, with most of the increase occurring in the first 5 years. The planted wetland had a higher plant community diversity index for 15 years, whereas the unplanted wetland was more productive. Wetland soils turned hydric within a few years; soil organic carbon doubled in 10 years and almost tripled in 15 years. Nutrient removal was similar in the two wetlands in most years, with a trend of decreased removal over 15 years for phosphorus. Denitrification accounted for a small percentage of the nitrogen reduction in the wetlands. The wetlands were effective carbon sinks with retention rates of 1800–2700 kilograms of carbon per hectare per year, higher than in comparable reference wetlands and more commonly studied boreal peatlands. Methane emission rates are low enough to create little concern that the wetlands are net sources of climate change radiative forcing. Planting appears to have influenced carbon accumulation, methane emissions, and macrophyte community diversity.
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Biodiversity and the Feel-Good Factor: Understanding Associations between Self-Reported Human Well-being and Species Richness
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Over half of the world’s human population lives in cities, and for many, urban greenspaces are the only places where they encounter biodiversity. This is of particular concern because there is growing evidence that human well-being is enhanced by exposure to nature. However, the specific qualities of greenspaces that offer the greatest benefits remain poorly understood. One possibility is that humans respond positively to increased levels of biodiversity. Here, we demonstrate the lack of a consistent relationship between actual plant, butterfly, and bird species richness and the psychological well-being of urban greenspace visitors. Instead, well-being shows a positive relationship with the richness that the greenspace users perceived to be present. One plausible explanation for this discrepancy, which we investigate, is that people generally have poor biodiversity- identification skills. The apparent importance of perceived species richness and the mismatch between reality and perception pose a serious challenge for aligning conservation and human well-being agendas.
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Global Biodiversity Conservation and the Alleviation of Poverty
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Poverty and biodiversity loss are two of the world’s dire challenges. Claims of conservation’s contribution to poverty alleviation, however, remain controversial. Here, we assess the flows of ecosystem services provided to people by priority habitats for terrestrial conservation, considering the global distributions of biodiversity, physical factors, and socioeconomic context. We estimate the value of these habitats to the poor, both through direct benefits and through payments for ecosystem services to those stewarding natural habitats. The global potential for biodiversity conservation to support poor communities is high: The top 25% of conservation priority areas could provide 56%–57% of benefits. The aggregate benefits are valued at three times the estimated opportunity costs and exceed $1 per person per day for 331 million of the world’s poorest people. Although trade-offs remain, these results show win–win synergies between conservation and poverty alleviation, indicate that effective financial mecha- nisms can enhance these synergies, and suggest biodiversity conservation as a fundamental component of sustainable economic development.
Keywords: ecosystem service flows, poverty alleviation, biodiversity conservation priorities, natural capital, valuation
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Contemporary Evolution of Reproductive Isolation and Phenotypic Divergence in Sympatry along a Migratory Divide
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Understanding the influence of human-induced changes on the evolutionary trajectories of populations is a fundamental problem [1, 2]. The evolution of reproductive isolation in sympatry is rare, relying on strong selection along steep ecological gradients [3–7]. Improved wintering conditions owing to human activities promoted the recent establishment of a migratory divide in Central European blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) [8, 9]. Here, we show that differential migratory orientation facilitated reproductive isolation of sympatric populations within <30 generations. The genetic divergence in sympatry exceeds that of allopatric blackcaps separated by 800 km and is associated with diverse phenotypic divergence. Blackcaps migrating along the shorter northwestern route have rounder wings and narrower beaks and differ in beak and plumage color from sympatric south- west-migrating birds. We suggest that distinct wing and beak morphologies are ecomorphological adaptations resulting from divergent, multifarious selection regimes during migration. We hypothesize that restricted gene flow accelerates the evolution of adaptive phenotypic divergence toward the contrasting selection regimes. Similar adaptive processes can occur in more than 50 bird species that recently changed their migratory behavior [10, 11] or in species with low migratory connectivity. Our study thus illustrates how ecological changes can rapidly drive the contemporary evolution of ecotypes.
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