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Species invasions and extinction: The future of native biodiversity on islands
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Predation by exotic species has caused the extinction of many native animal species on islands, whereas competition from exotic plants has caused few native plant extinctions. Exotic plant addition to islands is highly nonrandom, with an almost perfect 1 to 1 match between the number of naturalized and native plant species on oceanic islands. Here, we evaluate several alternative implica- tions of these findings. Does the consistency of increase in plant richness across islands imply that a saturation point in species richness has been reached? If not, should we expect total plant richness to continue to increase as new species are added? Finally, is the rarity of native plant extinctions to date a misleading measure of the impact of past invasions, one that hides an extinction debt that will be paid in the future? By analyzing historical records, we show that the number of naturalized plant species has increased linearly over time on many individual islands. Further, the mean ratio of naturalized to native plant species across islands has changed steadily for nearly two centuries. These patterns suggest that many more species will become naturalized on islands in the future. We also discuss how dynamics of invasion bear upon alternative saturation scenarios and the implications these scenarios have for the future retention or extinction of native plant species. Finally, we identify invasion-motivated research gaps (propagule pressure, time-lags to extinction, abundance shifts, and loss of area) that can aid in forecasting extinction and in developing a more comprehensive theory of species extinctions.
birds plants species saturation
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Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
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Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.
Critical slowing down
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Education for a Sustainable Future
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Sustainability is being integrated into higher-education institutions’ mission and planning, curricula, research, student life, and operations.
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Biodiversity in a Warmer World
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A new framework helps to understand how species ranges change under global warming.
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Impacts of Climatic Change and Fishing on Pacific Salmon Abundance Over the Past 300 Years
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The effects of climate variability on Pacific salmon abundance are uncertain because historical records are short and are complicated by commercial har- vesting and habitat alteration. We use lake sediment records of 15N and biological indicators to reconstruct sockeye salmon abundance in the Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island regions of Alaska over the past 300 years. Marked shifts in populations occurred over decades during this period, and some pronounced changes appear to be related to climatic change. Variations in salmon returns due to climate or harvesting can have strong impacts on sockeye nursery lake productivity in systems where adult salmon carcasses are important nutrient sources.
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Global Change and the Ecology of Cities
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Urban areas are hot spots that drive environmental change at multiple scales. Material demands of production and human consumption alter land use and cover, biodiversity, and hydrosystems locally to regionally, and urban waste discharge affects local to global biogeochemical cycles and climate. For urbanites, however, global environmental changes are swamped by dramatic changes in the local environment. Urban ecology integrates natural and social sciences to study these radically altered local environments and their regional and global effects. Cities themselves present both the problems and solutions to sustainability challenges of an increasingly urbanized world.
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Complexity of Coupled Human and Natural Systems
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Integrated studies of coupled human and natural systems reveal new and complex patterns and processes not evident when studied by social or natural scientists separately. Synthesis of six case studies from around the world shows that couplings between human and natural systems vary across space, time, and organizational units. They also exhibit nonlinear dynamics with thresholds, reciprocal feedback loops, time lags, resilience, heterogeneity, and surprises. Furthermore, past couplings have legacy effects on present conditions and future possibilities.
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The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity
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Several states and countries have adopted targets for deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but there has been little physically realistic modeling of the energy and economic transformations required. We analyzed the infrastructure and technology path required to meet California’s goal of an 80% reduction below 1990 levels, using detailed modeling of infrastructure stocks, resource constraints, and electricity system operability. We found that technically feasible levels of energy efficiency and decarbonized energy supply alone are not sufficient; widespread electrification of transportation and other sectors is required. Decarbonized electricity would become the dominant form of energy supply, posing challenges and opportunities for economic growth and climate policy. This transformation demands technologies that are not yet commercialized, as well as coordination of investment, technology development, and infrastructure deployment.
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Homo economicus Evolves
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Economic models can benefit from incorporating insights from psychology, but behavior in the lab might be a poor guide to real-world behavior.
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More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
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A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.
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