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Climatic change and wetland desiccation cause amphibian decline in Yellowstone National Park
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Amphibians are a bellwether for environmental degradation, even in natural ecosystems such as Yellowstone National Park in the western United States, where species have been actively protected longer than anywhere else on Earth. We document that recent climatic warming and resultant wetland desiccation are causing severe declines in 4 once-common amphibian species native to Yellowstone. Climate monitoring over 6 decades, remote sensing, and repeated surveys of 49 ponds indicate that decreasing annual precipitation and increasing temperatures during the warmest months of the year have significantly altered the landscape and the local biological communities. Drought is now more common and more severe than at any time in the past century. Compared with 16 years ago, the number of permanently dry ponds in northern Yellowstone has increased 4-fold. Of the ponds that remain, the proportion supporting amphibians has declined significantly, as has the number of species found in each location. Our results indicate that climatic warming already has disrupted one of the best-protected ecosystems on our planet and that current assessments of species’ vulnerability do not adequately consider such impacts.
global warming landscape change remote sensing amphibian community drought
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An emerging movement ecology paradigm
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1st 2 paragraphs: Movement of individual organisms, one of the most fundamental features of life on Earth, is a crucial component of almost any ecological and evolutionary process, including major problems associated with habitat fragmentation, climate change, biological invasions, and the spread of pests and diseases. The rich variety of movement modes seen among microorganisms, plants, and animals has fascinated mankind since time immemorial. The prophet Jeremiah (7th century B.C.),for instance, described the temporal consistency in migratory patterns of birds, and Aristotle (4th centur y B.C.) searched for common features unifying animal movements (see ref. 1). Modern movement research, however, is characterized by a broad range of specialized scientific approaches, each developed to explore a different type of movement carried out by a specific group of organisms (2). Beyond this separation across movement types and taxonomic (or functional) groups, movement research divides into four different ‘‘paradigms,’’ the random, biomechanical, cognitive, and optimality approaches (1), which are loosely linked to each other. Although movement research is extensive and is growing rapidly (2),
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Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations
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The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of indi- viduals to the perceived risk while moving. These context- dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one pro- vided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth–death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.
demography Iberian lynx metapopulation population dynamics source-sink
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A framework for generating and analyzing movement paths on ecological landscapes
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The movement paths of individuals over landscapes are basically represented by sequences of points (xi, yi) occurring at times ti. Theoretically, these points can be viewed as being generated by stochastic processes that in the simplest cases are Gaussian random walks on featureless landscapes. Generalizations have been made of walks that (i) take place on landscapes with features, (ii) have correlated distributions of velocity and direction of movement in each time interval, (iii) are Le ́ vy processes in which distance or waiting-time (time-between steps) distributions have infinite moments, or (iv) have paths bounded in space and time. We begin by demonstrating that rather mild truncations of fat-tailed step-size distributions have a dramatic effect on dispersion of organisms, where such truncations naturally arise in real walks of organisms bounded by space and, more generally, influenced by the interactions of physiological, behavioral, and ecological factors with landscape features. These generalizations permit not only increased realism and hence greater accuracy in constructing movement pathways, but also provide a biogeographically detailed epistemological framework for interpreting movement patterns in all organisms, whether tossed in the wind or willfully driven. We illustrate the utility of our framework by demonstrating how fission–fusion herding behavior arises among individuals endeavoring to satisfy both nutritional and safety demands in heterogeneous environments. We conclude with a brief discussion of potential methods that can be used to solve the inverse problem of identifying putative causal factors driving movement behavior on known landscapes, leaving details to references in the literature.
fission–fusion GPS landscape matrices random and Levy walks dispersal movement ecology
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Understanding strategies for seed dispersal by wind under contrasting atmospheric conditions
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Traits associated with seed dispersal vary tremendously among sympatric wind-dispersed plants. We used two contrasting tropical tree species, seed traps, micrometeorology, and a mechanistic model to evaluate how variation in four key traits affects seed dispersal by wind. The conceptual framework of movement ecology, wherein external factors (wind) interact with internal factors (plant traits) that enable movement and determine when and where movement occurs, fully captures the variable inputs and outputs of wind dispersal models and informs their interpretation. We used model calculations to evaluate the spatial pattern of dispersed seeds for the 16 factorial combinations of four traits. The study species differed dramatically in traits related to the timing of seed release, and a strong species by season interaction affected most aspects of the spatial pattern of dispersed seeds. A rich interplay among plant traits and seasonal differences in atmo- spheric conditions caused this interaction. Several of the same plant traits are crucial for both seed dispersal and other aspects of life history variation. Observed traits that limit dispersal are likely to be constrained by their life history consequences.
atmospheric turbulence conditional seed release Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian closure (CELC) model long distance dispersal tropical forest
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Movement ecology of migration in turkey vultures
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We develop individual-based movement ecology models (MEM) to explore turkey vulture (Cathartes aura) migration decisions at both hourly and daily scales. Vulture movements in 10 migration events were recorded with satellite-reporting GPS sensors, and flight behavior was observed visually, aided by on-the-ground VHF radio-track- ing. We used the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset to obtain values for wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and cloud height and used a digital elevation model for a measure of terrain ruggedness. A turkey vulture fitted with a heart-rate logger during 124 h of flight during 38 contiguous days showed only a small increase in mean heart rate as distance traveled per day increased, which suggests that, unlike flapping, soaring flight does not lead to greatly increased metabolic costs. Data from 10 migrations for 724 hourly segments and 152 daily segments showed that vultures depended heavily upon high levels of TKE in the atmospheric bound- ary layer to increase flight distances and maintain preferred bearings at both hourly and daily scales. We suggest how the MEM can be extended to other spatial and temporal scales of avian migration. Our success in relating model-derived atmospheric variables to migration indicates the potential of using regional reanalysis data, as here, and potentially other regional, higher-resolution, atmospheric models in predicting changing movement patterns of soaring birds under var- ious scenarios of climate and land use change.
energetics flight meteorology
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Southern Ocean acidification: A tipping point at 450-ppm atmospheric CO2
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Southern Ocean acidification via anthropogenic CO2 uptake is expected to be detrimental to multiple calcifying plankton species by lowering the concentration of carbonate ion (CO32) to levels where calcium carbonate (both aragonite and calcite) shells begin to dissolve. Natural seasonal variations in carbonate ion concentrations could either hasten or dampen the future onset of this undersaturation of calcium carbonate. We present a large-scale Southern Ocean observational analysis that examines the seasonal magnitude and variability of CO32 and pH. Our analysis shows an intense wintertime minimum in CO32 south of the Antarctic Polar Front and when combined with anthropogenic CO2 uptake is likely to induce aragonite undersaturation when atmospheric CO2 levels reach 450 ppm. Under the IPCC IS92a scenario, Southern Ocean wintertime aragonite undersaturation is projected to occur by the year 2030 and no later than 2038. Some prominent calcifying plankton, in particular the Pteropod species Limacina helicina, have important veliger larval development during winter and will have to experience detrimental carbonate conditions much earlier than previously thought, with possible deleterious flow-on impacts for the wider Southern Ocean marine ecosystem. Our results highlight the critical importance of understanding seasonal carbon dynamics within all calcifying marine ecosystems such as continental shelves and coral reefs, because natural variability may potentially hasten the onset of future ocean acidification.
carbon cycle climate change
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Multiple movement modes by large herbivores at multiple spatiotemporal scales
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Recent theory suggests that animals should switch facultatively among canonical movement modes as a complex function of internal state, landscape characteristics, motion capacity, and navigational capacity. We tested the generality of this paradigm for free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) over 5 orders of magnitude in time (minutes to years) and space (meters to 100 km). At the coarsest spatiotemporal scale, elk shifted from a dispersive to a home-ranging phase over the course of 1–3 years after introduc- tion into a novel environment. At intermediate spatiotemporal scales, elk continued to alternate between movement modes. During the dispersive phase, elk alternated between encamped and exploratory modes, possibly linked to changes in motivational goals from foraging to social bonding. During the home-ranging phase, elk movements were characterized by a complex interplay between attraction to preferred habitat types and memory of previous movements across the home-range. At the finest tempo- ral and spatial scale, elk used area-restricted search while brows- ing, interspersed with less sinuous paths when not browsing. Encountering a patch of high-quality food plants triggered the switch from one mode to the next, creating biphasic movement dynamics that were reinforced by local resource heterogeneity. These patterns suggest that multiphasic structure is fundamental to the movement patterns of elk at all temporal and spatial scales tested.
elk foraging group formation motivation
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The movement ecology and dynamics of plant communities in fragmented landscapes
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A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities, and external factors. We modified this framework to generate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species coloniza- tion and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersed species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time, whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.
corridors dispersal diversity life-history traits species richness
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Measuring the effectiveness of protected area networks in reducing deforestation
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Global efforts to reduce tropical deforestation rely heavily on the establishment of protected areas. Measuring the effectiveness of these areas is difficult because the amount of deforestation that would have occurred in the absence of legal protection cannot be directly observed. Conventional methods of evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas can be biased because protection is not randomly assigned and because protection can induce deforesta- tion spillovers (displacement) to neighboring forests. We demon- strate that estimates of effectiveness can be substantially im- proved by controlling for biases along dimensions that are observable, measuring spatial spillovers, and testing the sensitivity of estimates to potential hidden biases. We apply matching meth- ods to evaluate the impact on deforestation of Costa Rica’s re- nowned protected-area system between 1960 and 1997. We find that protection reduced deforestation: approximately 10% of the protected forests would have been deforested had they not been protected. Conventional approaches to evaluating conservation impact, which fail to control for observable covariates correlated with both protection and deforestation, substantially overesti- mate avoided deforestation (by over 65%, based on our estimates). We also find that deforestation spillovers from protected to un- protected forests are negligible. Our conclusions are robust to potential hidden bias, as well as to changes in modeling assump- tions. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical methods, conservation scientists and policy makers can better understand the relationships between human and natural systems and can use this to guide their attempts to protect critical ecosystem services.
avoided deforestation conservation policy empirical evaluation spatial spillovers
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