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Synthesis of Knowledge of Extreme Fire Behavior: Volume I for Fire Managers
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The National Wildfire Coordinating Group definition of extreme fire behavior (EFB) indicates a level of fire behavior characteristics that ordinarily precludes methods of direct control action. One or more of the following is usually involved: high rate of spread, prolific crowning/spotting, presence of fire whirls, and strong convection column. Predictability is difficult because such fires often exercise some degree of influence on their environment and behave erratically, sometimes dangerously. Alternate terms include “blow up” and “fire storm.”
Fire managers examining fires over the last 100 years have come to understand many of the factors necessary for EFB development. This work produced guidelines included in current firefighter training, which presents the current methods of predicting EFB by using the crown fire model, which is based on the environmental influences of weather, fuels, and topography.
Current training does not include the full extent of scientific understanding. Material in current training programs is also not the most recent scientific knowledge. National Fire Plan funds have sponsored newer research related to wind profiles’ influence on fire behavior, plume growth, crown fires, fire dynamics in live fuels, and conditions associated with vortex development. Of significant concern is that characteristic features of EFB depend on condi- tions undetectable on the ground, relying fundamentally on invisible properties such as wind shear or atmospheric stability.
Obviously no one completely understands all the factors contributing to EFB because of gaps in our knowledge. These gaps, as well as the limitations as to when various models or indices apply should be noted to avoid application where they are not appropriate or warranted. This synthesis will serve as a summary of existing extreme fire behavior knowledge for use by fire managers, firefighters, and fire researchers.
The objective of this project is to synthesize existing EFB knowledge in a way that connects the weather, fuel, and topographic factors that contribute to development of EFB. This synthesis will focus on the state of the science, but will also consider how that science is currently presented to the fire management community, including incident commanders, fire behavior analysts, incident meteorologists, National Weather Service office forecasters, and firefighters. It will seek to clearly delineate the known, the unknown, and areas of research with the greatest potential impact on firefighter protection.
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Carbon Sequestration in Two Created Riverine Wetlands in the Midwestern United States
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Wetlands have the ability to accumulate significant amounts of carbon (C) and thus could provide an effective approach to mitigate greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. Wetland hydrology, age, and management can affect primary productivity, decomposition, and ultimately C sequestration in riverine wetlands, but these aspects of wetland biogeochemistry have not been adequately investigated, especially in created wetlands. In this study we investigate the ability of created freshwater wetlands to sequester C by determining the sediment accretion and soil C accumulation of two 15-yr-old created wetlands in central Ohio—one planted and one naturally colonized. We measured the amount of sediment and soil C accumulated over the parent material and found that these created wetlands accumulated an average of 242 g C m-2 yr-1, 70% more than a similar natural wetland in the region and 26% more than the rate estimated for these same wetlands 5 yr before this study. The C sequestration of the naturally colonized wetland was 22% higher than that of the planted wetland (267 ± 17 vs. 219 ± 15 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively). Soil C accrual accounted for 66% of the aboveground net primary productivity on average. Open water communities had the highest C accumulation rates in both wetlands. This study shows that created wetlands can be natural, cost-effective tools to sequester C to mitigate the effect of greenhouse gas emissions.
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Historical Evaluation and Future Prediction of Eastern North American and Western Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Models during the Cool Season
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Extratropical cyclone track density, genesis frequency, deepening rate, and maximum intensity distributions over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic were analyzed for 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical period (1979–2004) and three future periods (2009–38, 2039–68, and 2069–98). The cyclones were identified using an automated tracking algorithm applied to sea level pressure every 6 h. The CMIP5 results for the historical period were evaluated using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The CMIP5 models were ranked given their track density, intensity, and overall performance for the historical period. It was found that six of the top seven CMIP5 models with the highest spatial resolution were ranked the best overall. These models had less un- derprediction of cyclone track density, more realistic distribution of intense cyclones along the U.S. East Coast, and more realistic cyclogenesis and deepening rates. The best seven models were used to determine projected future changes in cyclones, which included a 10%–30% decrease in cyclone track density and weakening of cyclones over the western Atlantic storm track, while in contrast there is a 10%–20% increase in cyclone track density over the eastern United States, including 10%–40% more intense (,980 hPa) cyclones and 20%–40% more rapid deepening rates just inland of the U.S. East Coast. Some of the reasons for these CMIP5 model differences were explored for the selected models based on model generated Eady growth rate, upper-level jet, surface baroclinicity, and precipitation.
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Climate Change Puts Children in Jeopardy
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From the text: Experts several years ago sounded the alarm on climate change’s potential harm to human health in the years to come. But the impact on a particularly vulnerable group—children—has not received a great deal of attention.
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Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities for Global Health
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Editorial: Journal of the American Medical Association. Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaledclimate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We searched PubMed from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climate Data Center. By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; and respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by fine particulate pollutants, such as asthma and allergic disorders; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and water-borne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic co-benefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, the cost of greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US carbon policies. Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Ecological extinction and evolution in the brave new ocean
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The great mass extinctions of the fossil record were a major creative force that provided entirely new kinds of opportunities for the subsequent explosive evolution and diversification of surviving clades. Today, the synergistic effects of human impacts are laying the groundwork for a comparably great Anthropocene mass extinction in the oceans with unknown ecological and evolutionary consequences. Synergistic effects of habitat destruction, overfishing, introduced species, warming, acidification, toxins, and massive runoff of nutrients are transforming once complex ecosystems like coral reefs and kelp forests into monotonous level bottoms, transforming clear and productive coastal seas into anoxic dead zones, and transforming complex food webs topped by big animals into simplified, microbially dominated ecosystems with boom and bust cycles of toxic dinoflagel- late blooms, jellyfish, and disease. Rates of change are increasingly fast and nonlinear with sudden phase shifts to novel alternative community states. We can only guess at the kinds of organisms that will benefit from this mayhem that is radically altering the selective seascape far beyond the consequences of fishing or warming alone. The prospects are especially bleak for animals and plants compared with metabolically flexible microbes and algae. Halting and ultimately reversing these trends will require rapid and fundamental changes in fisheries, agricultural practice, and the emissions of green- house gases on a global scale.
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Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?
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Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamflow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 . 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.
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Thermal legacies: transgenerational effects of temperature on growth in a vertebrate
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Transgenerational plasticity (TGP), a generalisation of more widely studied maternal effects, occurs whenever environmental cues experienced by either parent prior to fertilisation results in a modification of offspring reaction norms. Such effects have been observed in many traits across many species. Despite enormous potential importance—particularly in an era of rapid climate change—TGP in thermal growth physiology has never been demonstrated for vertebrates. We provide the first evidence for thermal TGP in a vertebrate: given sufficient time, sheepshead minnows adaptively program their offspring for maximal growth at the present temperature. The change in growth over a single generation (c. 30%) exceeds the single-generation rate of adaptive evolution by an order of magnitude. If widespread, transgenerational effects on thermal performance may have important implications on physiology, ecology and contemporary evolution, and may significantly alter the extinction risk posed by changing climate.
Keywords
Cyprinodon variegatus, ecological epigenetics, maternal effects, sheepshead minnow.
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Emergence of a mid-season period of low floral resources in a montane meadow ecosystem associated with climate change
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Summary. 1. Shifts in the spatial and temporal patterns of flowering could affect the resources available to pollinators, and such shifts might become more common as climate change progresses. 2. As mid-summer temperatures have warmed,we found that a montane meadow ecosystem in the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States exhibits a trend toward a bimodal distribution of flower abundance, characterized by a mid-season reduction in total flower number, instead of a broad, unimodal flowering peak lasting most of the summer season. 3. We examined the shapes of community-level flowering curves in this system and found that the typical unimodal peak results from a pattern of complementary peaks in flowering among three distinct meadow types (dry, mesic and wet) within the larger ecosystem. However, high mid-summer temperatures were associated with divergent shifts in the flowering curves of these individual meadow types. Specifically, warmer summers appeared to cause increasing bimodality in mesic habitats, and a longer interval between early and late flowering peaks in wet and dry habitats. 4. Together, these habitat-specific shifts produced a longer mid-season valley in floral abundance across the larger ecosystem in warmer years. Because of these warming-induced changes in flowering patterns, and the significant increase in summer temperatures in our study area, there has been a trend toward non-normality of flowering curves over the period 1974–2009. This trend reflects increasing bimodality in total community-wide flowering. 5. The resulting longer periods of low flowering abundance in the middle of the summer season could negatively affect pollinators that are active throughout the season, and shifts in flowering peaks within habitats might create mismatches between floral resources and demand by pollinators with limited foraging ranges. 6. Synthesis. Early-season climate conditions are getting warmer and drier in the high altitudes of the southern Rocky Mountains. We present evidence that this climate change is disrupting flowering phenology within and among different moisture habitats in a sub-alpine meadow ecosystem, causing a mid-season decline in floral resources that might negatively affect mutualists, especially pollinators. Our findings suggest that climate change can have complex effects on phenology at small spatial scales, depending on patch-level habitat differences.
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TRUST, CULTURE, AND COOPERATION: A Social Dilemma Analysis of Pro-Environmental Behaviors
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Social dilemmas require a choice between cooperation, or sacrificing for the greater good, and self-interest. One commonly studied social dilemma is environmental conservation. Previous work suggests that trust predicts cooperation in the form of environmental protection. We contend that this view ignores cultural factors. Building on prior cross-cultural research, we predict an interaction between strength of social ties and trust on cooperation. Findings from General Social Survey data indicate that low trust levels found in the U.S. South (a collectivist culture) renders trust ineffective at promoting environmental protection. However, trust predicts cooperation in nonsouthern regions (which are more individualist), where trust levels are higher.
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