-
Eads et al 2006.pdf
-
Located in
Resources
/
TRB Library
/
DIN-ECO
-
Eads et al 2007.pdf
-
Located in
Resources
/
TRB Library
/
DIN-ECO
-
Eads Layzer 2002.pdf
-
Located in
Resources
/
TRB Library
/
DIN-ECO
-
Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments
-
During the decline to extinction, animal populations may present dynamical phenomena not exhibited by robust populations (1,2). Some of these phenomena, such as the scaling of demographic variance, are related to small size (3–6) whereas others result from density- dependent nonlinearities (7). Although understanding the causes of population extinction has been a central problem in theoretical biology for decades (8), the ability to anticipate extinction has remained elusive (9). Here we argue that the causes of a population’s decline are central to the predictability of its extinction. Specifically, environmental degradation may cause a tipping point in population dynamics, corresponding to a bifurcation in the underlying population growth equations, beyond which decline to extinction is almost certain. In such cases, imminent extinction will be signalled by critical slowing down (CSD)
critical slowing down
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
-
Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts.
Critical slowing down
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data
-
Here we use a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30–50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
East and Central Aquatics Corridors and USDA Google Image Search
-
Located in
Site Images
-
East and Central Northern Deciduous Forests and USDA Google Image Search
-
Located in
Site Images
-
East and Central Northern Deciduous Forests Lead Image
-
East and Central Northern Deciduous Forests Lead Image.
Located in
WLFW-site-images
-
East Gulf Coastal Plain Joint Venture
-
The East Gulf Coastal Plain Joint Venture (EGCPJV) is a self-directed partnership of 13 state, federal, private, and academic organizations working together to coordinate bird conservation efforts in the coastal plain of six southeastern states.
Located in
LP Members
/
Organizations Search
