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CARBON CYCLE : Fertilizing change
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Carbon cycle–climate feedbacks are expected to diminish the size of the terrestrial carbon sink over the next century. Model simulations suggest that nitrogen availability is likely to play a key role in mediating this response.
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First signs of carbon sink saturation in European forest biomass
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European forests are seen as a clear example of vegetation rebound in the Northern Hemisphere; recovering in area and growing stock since the 1950s, after centuries of stock decline and deforestation. These regrowing forests have shown to be a persistent carbon sink, projected to continue for decades, however, there are early signs of saturation. Forest policies and management strategies need revision if we want to sustain the sink.
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Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data
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Here we use a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30–50% greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system.
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A general integrative model for scaling plant growth, carbon flux, and functional trait spectra
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Linking functional traits to plant growth is critical for scaling attributes of organisms to the dynamics of ecosystems (1,2) and for understanding how selection shapes integrated botanical phenotypes (3). However, a general mechanistic theory showing how traits specifically influence carbon and biomass flux within and across plants is needed. Building on foundational work on relative growth rate (4–6), recent work on functional trait spectra (7–9), and metabolic scaling theory (10,11), here we derive a generalized trait-based model of plant growth. In agreement with a wide variety of empirical data, our model uniquely predicts how key functional traits interact to regulate variation in relative growth rate, the allometric growth normalizations for both angiosperms and gymnosperms, and the quantitative form of several functional trait spectra relationships. The model also provides a general quantitative framework to incorporate additional leaf-level trait scaling relationships (7,8) and hence to unite functional trait spectra with theories of relative growth rate, and metabolic scaling. We apply the model to calculate carbon use efficiency. This often ignored trait, which may influence variation in relative growth rate, appears to vary directionally across geographic gradients. Together, our results show how both quantitative plant traits and the geometry of vascular transport networks can be merged into a common scaling theory. Our model provides a framework for predicting not only how traits covary within an integrated allometric phenotype but also how trait variation mechanistically influences plant growth and carbon flux within and across diverse ecosystems.
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Snowball Earth termination by destabilization of equatorial permafrost methane clathrate
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The start of the Ediacaran period is defined by one of the most severe climate change events recorded in Earth history—the recov- ery from the Marinoan ‘snowball’ ice age, ,635 Myr ago (ref. 1). Marinoan glacial-marine deposits occur at equatorial palaeolati- tudes2, and are sharply overlain by a thin interval of carbonate that preserves marine carbon and sulphur isotopic excursions of about 25 and 115 parts per thousand, respectively3–5; these deposits are thought to record widespread oceanic carbonate precipitation during postglacial sea level rise1,3,4. This abrupt transition records a climate system in profound disequilibrium3,6 and contrasts shar- ply with the cyclical stratigraphic signal imparted by the balanced feedbacks modulating Phanerozoic deglaciation. Hypotheses accounting for the abruptness of deglaciation include ice albedo feedback3, deep-ocean out-gassing during post-glacial oceanic overturn7 or methane hydrate destabilization8–10. Here we report the broadest range of oxygen isotope values yet measured in mar- ine sediments (225% to 112%) in methane seeps in Marinoan deglacial sediments underlying the cap carbonate. This range of values is likely to be the result of mixing between ice-sheet-derived meteoric waters and clathrate-derived fluids during the flushing and destabilization of a clathrate field by glacial meltwater. The equatorial palaeolatitude implies a highly volatile shelf permafrost pool that is an order of magnitude larger than that of the present day. A pool of this size could have provided a massive biogeochem- ical feedback capable of triggering deglaciation and accounting for the global postglacial marine carbon and sulphur isotopic excur- sions, abrupt unidirectional warming, cap carbonate deposition, and a marine oxygen crisis. Our findings suggest that methane released from low-latitude permafrost clathrates therefore acted as a trigger and/or strong positive feedback for deglaciation and warming. Methane hydrate destabilization is increasingly suspected as an important positive feedback to climate change11–13 that coincides with critical boundaries in the geological record14,15 and may represent one particularly important mechanism active during conditions of strong climate forcing.
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Strong effect of dispersal network structure on ecological dynamics
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A central question in ecology with great importance for management, conservation and biological control is how changing connectivity affects the persistence and dynamics of interacting species. Researchers in many disciplines have used large systems of coupled oscillators to model the behaviour of a diverse array of fluctuating systems in nature1–4. In the well-studied regime of weak coupling, synchronization is favoured by increases in coupling strength and large-scale network structures (for example ‘small worlds’) that produce short cuts and clustering5–9. Here we show that, by contrast, randomizing the structure of dispersal networks in a model of predators and prey tends to favour asyn- chrony and prolonged transient dynamics, with resulting effects on the amplitudes of population fluctuations. Our results focus on synchronization and dynamics of clusters in models, and on time- scales, more appropriate for ecology, namely smaller systems with strong interactions outside the weak-coupling regime, rather than the better-studied cases of large, weakly coupled systems. In these smaller systems, the dynamics of transients and the effects of changes in connectivity can be well understood using a set of methods including numerical reconstructions of phase dynamics, examinations of cluster formation and the consideration of important aspects of cyclic dynamics, such as amplitude.
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Using (brain)temperature to analyse temporal dynamics in the songbird motor pathway
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Here we address these issues by using temperature to manipulate the biophysical dynamics in different regions of the songbird forebrain involved in song production. We find that cooling the premotor nucleus HVC (formerly known as the high vocal centre) slows song speed across all timescales by up to 45 per cent but only slightly alters the acoustic structure, whereas cooling the downstream motor nucleus RA (robust nucleus of the arcopallium) has no observable effect on song timing. Our observations suggest that dynamics within HVC are involved in the control of song timing, perhaps through a chain-like organization. Local manipulation of brain temperature should be broadly applicable to the identification of neural circuitry that controls the timing of behavioural sequences and, more generally, to the study of the origin and role of oscillatory and other forms of brain dynamics in neural systems.
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vegetation controlled by tropical sea surface temperatures in the mid-Pleistocene period
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The dominant forcing factors for past large-scale changes in vegetation are widely debated. Changes in the distribution of C4 plants—adapted to warm, dry conditions and low atmospheric CO2 concentrations1—have been attributed to marked changes in environmental conditions, but the relative impacts of changes in aridity, temperature2,3 and CO2 concentration4,5 are not well understood. Here, we present a record of African C4 plant abundance between 1.2 and 0.45 million years ago, derived from compound-specific carbon isotope analyses of wind-trans- ported terrigenous plant waxes. We find that large-scale changes in African vegetation are linked closely to sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. We conclude that, in the mid- Pleistocene, changes in atmospheric moisture content—driven by tropical sea surface temperature changes and the strength of the African monsoon—controlled aridity on the African continent, and hence large-scale vegetation changes.
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Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model
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The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate1. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems2, but this absorption is sensitive to climate3,4 as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations5, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change6. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon±climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could signi®cantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-®rst century. We ®nd that under a `business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr-1 is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models2, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.
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CO2 emissions from forest loss
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Deforestation is the second largest anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, after fossil fuel combustion. Following a budget reanalysis, the contribution from deforestation is revised downwards, but tropical peatlands emerge as a notable carbon dioxide source.
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