: Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations
for the future. When the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expectations,
however, our expectations will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers a framework for
developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A
scenario in this context is an account of a plausible future. Scenario planning consists of using a few contrasting
scenarios to explore the uncertainty surrounding the future consequences of a decision. Ideally, scenarios
should be constructed by a diverse group of people for a single, stated purpose. Scenario planning can
incorporate a variety of quantitative and qualitative information in the decision-making process. Often, consideration
of this diverse information in a systemic way leads to better decisions. Furthermore, the participation
of a diverse group of people in a systemic process of collecting, discussing, and analyzing scenarios
builds shared understanding. The robustness provided by the consideration of multiple possible futures has
served several groups well; we present examples from business, government, and conservation planning that
illustrate the value of scenario planning. For conservation, major benefits of using scenario planning are (1)
increased understanding of key uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation
planning, and (3) greater resilience of decisions to surprise.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
Land use change around protected areas can diminish their conservation value, making it important to
predict future land use changes nearby. Our goal was to evaluate future land use changes around protected
areas of different types in the United States under different socioeconomic scenarios. We analyzed
econometric-based projections of future land use change to capture changes around 1260 protected
areas, including National Forests, Parks, Refuges, and Wilderness Areas, from 2001 to 2051, under different
land use policies and crop prices. Our results showed that urban expansion around protected areas
will continue to be a major threat, and expand by 67% under business-as-usual conditions.
Concomitantly, a substantial number of protected areas will lose natural vegetation in their surroundings.
National land-use policies or changes in crop prices are not likely to affect the overall pattern of land use,
but can have effects in certain regions. Discouraging urbanization through zoning, for example, can
reduce future urban pressures around National Forests and Refuges in the East, while the implementation
of an afforestation policy can increase the amount of natural vegetation around some Refuges throughout
the U.S. On the other hand, increases in crop prices can increase crop/pasture cover around some protected
areas, and limit the potential recovery of natural vegetation. Overall, our results highlight that future
land-use change around protected areas is likely to be substantial but variable among regions and
protected area types. Safeguarding the conservation value of protected areas may require serious consideration of threats and opportunities arising from future land use.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
