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Impacts of land use land cover on temperature trends over the continental United States
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We investigate the sensitivity of surface temperature trends to land use land cover change (LULC) over the conterminous United States (CONUS) using the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) approach. We estimated the OMR trends for the 1979–2003 period from the US Historical Climate Network (USHCN), and the NCEP-NCAR North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). We used a new mean square differences (MSDs)-based assessment for the comparisons between temperature anomalies from observations and interpolated reanalysis data. Trends of monthly mean temperature anomalies show a strong agreement, especially between adjusted USHCN and NARR (r = 0.9 on average) and demonstrate that NARR captures the climate variability at different time scales. OMR trend results suggest that, unlike findings from studies based on the global reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis), NARR often has a larger warming trend than adjusted observations (on average, 0.28 and 0.27°C/decade respectively).
OMR trends were found to be sensitive to land cover types. We analysed decadal OMR trends as a function of land types using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and new National Land Cover Database (NLCD) 1992–2001 Retrofit Land Cover Change. The magnitude of OMR trends obtained from the NLDC is larger than the one derived from the ‘static’ AVHRR. Moreover, land use conversion often results in more warming than cooling.
Overall, our results confirm the robustness of the OMR method for detecting non-climatic changes at the station level, evaluating the impacts of adjustments performed on raw observations, and most importantly, providing a quantitative estimate of additional warming trends associated with LULC changes at local and regional scales. As most of the warming trends that we identify can be explained on the basis of LULC changes, we suggest that in addition to considering the greenhouse gases–driven radiative forcings, multi-decadal and longer climate models simulations must further include LULC changes. Copyright 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
KEY WORDS land use land cover change; reanalysis; temperature trends; observed minus reanalysis approach; US historical climate network
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LAND USE PLANNING: A TIME-TESTED APPROACH FOR ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE
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Oregon’s land use planning program has protected an estimated 1.2 million acres of forest and agricultural land from development since its inception in 1973. As a result, these resource lands continue to provide forest products and food as well as another unexpected benefit: carbon storage. By keeping forests as forests, land use planning capitalizes on the natural landscape’s ability to sequester atmospheric carbon, a key contributor to climate change. Nationwide, however, forest land is the land type most frequently converted to more developed uses. When this happens, carbon storage opportunities are lost, and the new use, such as a housing development, often becomes a net carbon producer.
Scientists from the Pacific Northwest Research Station and Oregon Department of Forestry quantified the carbon storage maintained by the land use planning program in western Oregon. They found these gains were equivalent to avoiding 1.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually—the amount of carbon that would have been emitted by 395,000 cars in a year. Had the 1.7 million metric tons of stored carbon been released through development, Oregon’s annual increase in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2000 would have been three times what it actually was. As policymakers look for ways to mitigate climate change, land use planning is a proven tool with measurable results.
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Effect of per-capita land use changes on Holocene forest clearance and CO2 emissions
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The centerpiece of the early anthropogenic hypothesis is the claim that humans took control of greenhouse-gas trends thousands of years ago because of emissions from early agriculture (Ruddiman, 2003, 2007). A common reaction to this claim is that too few people lived thousands of years ago to have had a major effect on either land use or greenhouse-gas concentrations. Implicit in this view is the notion that per-capita land clearance has changed little for millennia, but numerous field studies have shown that early per-capita land use was large and then declined as increasing population density led to more intensive farming. Here we explore the potential impact of changing per-capita land use in recent millennia and conclude that greater clearance by early agriculturalists could have had a disproportionately large impact on CO2 emissions.
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The role of terrestrial plants in limiting atmospheric CO2 decline over the past 24 million years
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Environmental conditions during the past 24 million years are thought to have been favourable for enhanced rates of atmospheric carbon dioxide drawdown by silicate chemical weathering1–7. Proxy records indicate, however, that the Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations did not fall below about 200–250 parts per million during this period8. The stabilization of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near this minimum value suggests that strong negative feedback mechanisms inhibited further drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide by high rates of global silicate rock weathering. Here we investigate one possible negative feedback mechanism, occurring under relatively low carbon dioxide concentrations and in warm climates, that is related to terrestrial plant productivity and its role in the decomposition of silicate minerals9–11. We use simulations of terrestrial and geochemical carbon cycles and available experimental evidence to show that vegetation activity in upland regions of active orogens was severely limited by near-starvation of carbon dioxide in combination with global warmth over this period. These conditions diminished biotic-driven silicate rock weathering and thereby attenuated an important long-term carbon dioxide sink. Although our modelling results are semi-quantitative and do not capture the full range of biogeochemical feedbacks that could influence the climate, our analysis indicates that the dynamic equilibrium between plants, climate and the geosphere probably buffered the minimum atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 24 million years.
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The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability
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Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research. This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land cover and land use as a coupled human–environment system to ad- dress theory, concepts, models, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two. The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system—causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues. The six articles of the special feature are introduced and situated within these components of study.
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Impact of deforestation in the Amazon basin on cloud climatology
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Shallow clouds are prone to appear over deforested surfaces whereas deep clouds, much less frequent than shallow clouds, favor forested surfaces. Simultaneous atmospheric soundings at forest and pasture sites during the Rondonian Boundary Layer Experiment (RBLE-3) elucidate the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed correlation between clouds and land cover. We demonstrate that the atmospheric boundary layer over the forested areas is more unstable and characterized by larger values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) due to greater humidity than that which is found over the deforested area. The shallow convection over the deforested areas is relatively more active than the deep convection over the forested areas. This greater activity results from a stronger lifting mechanism caused by mesoscale circulations driven by deforestation-induced heterogeneities in land cover.
climate land-cover heterogeneity mesoscale circulations
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Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during 1700 –1850 induced by preindustrial cultivation
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Preindustrial changes in the Asian summer monsoon climate from the 1700s to the 1850s were estimated with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using historical global land cover/use change data reconstructed for the last 300 years. Extended cultivation resulted in a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent and southeastern China and an associated weakening of the Asian summer monsoon circulation. The precipitation decrease in India was marked and was consistent with the observational changes derived from examining the Himalayan ice cores for the concurrent period. Between the 1700s and the 1850s, the anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and aerosols were still minor; also, no long-term trends in natural climate variations, such as those caused by the ocean, solar activity, or volcanoes, were reported. Thus, we propose that the land cover/ use change was the major source of disturbances to the climate during that period. This report will set forward quantitative ex-amination of the actual impacts of land cover/use changes on Asian monsoons, relative to the impact of greenhouse gases and aerosols, viewed in the context of global warming on the interannual, decadal, and centennial time scales.
atmospheric water balance climate change historical land-cover change monsoon rainfall
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Domesticated Nature: Shaping Landscapes and Ecosystems for Human Welfare
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Like all species, humans have exercised their impulse to perpetuate and propagate themselves. In doing so, we have domesticated landscapes and ecosystems in ways that enhance our food supplies, reduce exposure to predators and natural dangers, and promote commerce. On average, the net benefits to humankind of domesticated nature have been positive. We have, of course, made mistakes, causing unforeseen changes in ecosystem attributes, while leaving few, if any, truly wild places on Earth. Going into the future, scientists can help humanity to domesticate nature more wisely by quantifying the tradeoffs among ecosystem services, such as how increasing the provision of one service may decrease ecosystem resilience and the provision of other services.
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LATITUDINAL GRADIENTS OF BIODIVERSITY: Pattern, Process, Scale, and Synthesis
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The latitudinal gradient of decreasing richness from tropical to extra- tropical areas is ecology’s longest recognized pattern. Nonetheless, notable exceptions to the general pattern exist, and it is well recognized that patterns may be dependent on characteristics of spatial scale and taxonomic hierarchy. We conducted an exten- sive survey of the literature and provide a synthetic assessment of the degree to which variation in patterns (positive linear, negative linear, modal, or nonsignificant) is a consequence of characteristics of scale (extent or focus) or taxon. In addition, we considered latitudinal gradients with respect to generic and familial richness, as well as species evenness and diversity. We provide a classification of the over 30 hypotheses advanced to account for the latitudinal gradient, and we discuss seven hypotheses with most promise for advancing ecological, biogeographic, and evolutionary understanding. We conclude with a forward-looking synthesis and list of fertile areas for future research.
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A phylogenetic perspective on the distribution of plant diversity
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Phylogenetic studies are revealing that major ecological niches are more conserved through evolutionary history than expected, implying that adaptations to major climate changes have not readily been accomplished in all lineages. Phylogenetic niche conservatism has important consequences for the assembly of both local communities and the regional species pools from which these are drawn. If corridors for movement are available, newly emerging environments will tend to be filled by species that filter in from areas in which the relevant adaptations have already evolved, as opposed to being filled by in situ evolution of these adaptations. Examples include intercontinental disjunctions of tropical plants, the spread of plant lineages around the Northern Hemisphere after the evolution of cold tolerance, and the radiation of northern alpine plants into the Andes. These observations highlight the role of phylogenetic knowledge and historical biogeography in explanations of global biodiversity patterns. They also have implications for the future of biodiversity.
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