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Nichols Amberg 1999.pdf
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Nichols Amberg 1999.pdf
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Nichols et al 2001.pdf
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Nichols Garling 2002.pdf
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NJ Landscape Project Training and Information Sessions
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Designed to guide strategic wildlife habitat conservation, the Landscape Project is an interactive ecosystem-based mapping tool that assists government agencies, planners, conservation groups, the public and others in making decisions that will protect imperiled and special concern wildlife.
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NOAA FireBird Newsletter
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Newsletter from the NOAAFireBird Project
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NOAAFIreBird
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The Firebird Project brings together a variety of stakeholders to address waterbird conservation along the Gulf Coast. Here you can find out about the many on-going projects under the Firebird umbrella.
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Nolan, Vivian
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Non-equilibrium succession dynamics indicate continued northern migration of lodgepole pine
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This study provides evidence of range expansion under current climatic conditions of an indigenous species with strong ecosystem effects. Surveys of stands along the northern distribution limit of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) in central Yukon Territory, Canada showed consistent increases in pine dominance following fire. These patterns differed strongly from those observed at sites where pine has been present for several thousand years. Differences in species thinning rates are unlikely to account for the observed increases in pine dominance. Rates of pine regeneration at its range limits were equivalent to those of spruce, indicating a capacity for rapid local population expansion. The study also found no evidence of strong climatic limitation of pine population growth at the northern distribution limit. We interpret these data as evidence of current pine expansion at its range limits and conclude that the northern distribution of lodgepole pine is not in equilibrium with current climate. This study has implications for our ability to predict vegetation response to climate change when populations may lag in their response to climate.
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Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change
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The United States produces 41% of the world’s corn and 38% of the world’s soybeans. These crops comprise two of the four largest sources of caloric energy produced and are thus critical for world food supply. We pair a panel of county-level yields for these two crops, plus cotton (a warmer-weather crop), with a new fine-scale weather dataset that incorporates the whole distribution of tem- peratures within each day and across all days in the growing season. We find that yields increase with temperature up to 29° C for corn, 30° C for soybeans, and 32° C for cotton but that tem- peratures above these thresholds are very harmful. The slope of the decline above the optimum is significantly steeper than the incline below it. The same nonlinear and asymmetric relationship is found when we isolate either time-series or cross-sectional variations in temperatures and yields. This suggests limited his- torical adaptation of seed varieties or management practices to warmer temperatures because the cross-section includes farmers’ adaptations to warmer climates and the time-series does not. Holding current growing regions fixed, area-weighted average yields are predicted to decrease by 30 – 46% before the end of the century under the slowest (B1) warming scenario and decrease by 63–82% under the most rapid warming scenario (A1FI) under the Hadley III model.
agriculture panel analysis time series cross section farmer adaptation
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