Organisms are expected to adapt or move in response to climate change, but observed
distribution shifts span a wide range of directions and rates. Explanations often emphasize
biological distinctions among species, but general mechanisms have been elusive. We tested an
alternative hypothesis: that differences in climate velocity—the rate and direction that climate
shifts across the landscape—can explain observed species shifts. We compiled a database of
coastal surveys around North America from 1968 to 2011, sampling 128 million individuals
across 360 marine taxa. Climate velocity explained the magnitude and direction of shifts in
latitude and depth much more effectively than did species characteristics. Our results demonstrate
that marine species shift at different rates and directions because they closely track the complex
mosaic of local climate velocities.
SCIENCE VOL 341 13 SEPTEMBER 2013
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