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The Role of Local Governance and Institutions in Livelihoods Adaptation to Climate Change
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The most important implications of climate change from the perspective of the
World Bank concern its potentially disastrous impacts on the prospects for development,
especially for poorer populations in the global South. Earlier writings on climate change
had tended to focus more on its links with biodiversity loss, spread of pathogens and
diseases, land use planning, ecosystem change, and insurance markets, rather than its
connections with development (Easterling and Apps 2005, Harvell et al. 2002, Tompkins
and Adger 2004). But as the Social Development Department of the World Bank recently
noted, “Climate change is the defining development challenge of our generation” (SDV,
2007: 2). These words echo the World Bank President Robert Zoellick’s statement at the
United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2007 in Bali where he called climate
change a “development, economic, and investment challenge.” Indeed, understanding the
relationship between climate change, the human responses it necessitates, and how
institutions shape such responses is an increasingly urgent need. This report directs
attention towards a subset of such relationships, focusing on rural institutions and poor
populations in the context of climate variability and change-induced adaptations.
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Tangled Trends for Temperate Rain Forests as Temperatures Tick Up
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Climate change is altering growing
conditions in the temperate rain forest
region that extends from northern California
to the Gulf of Alaska. Longer,
warmer growing seasons are generally
increasing the overall potential for
forest growth in the region. However,
species differ in their ability to adapt
to changing conditions. For example,
researchers with Pacific Northwest
Research Station examined forest
trends for southeastern and southcentral
Alaska and found that, in 13
years, western redcedar showed a
4.2-percent increase in live-tree biomass,
while shore pine showed a
4.6-percent decrease. In general, the
researchers found that the amount of
live-tree biomass in extensive areas
of unmanaged, higher elevation forest
in southern Alaska increased by
as much as 8 percent over the 13-year
period, contributing to significant
carbon storage.
Hemlock dwarf mistletoe is another species
expected to fare well under warmer
conditions in Alaska. Model projections
indicate that habitat for this parasitic
species could increase 374 to 757 percent
over the next 100 years. This could
temper the prospects for western hemlock—a
tree species otherwise expected
to do well under future climate conditions
projected for southern Alaska.
In coastal forests of Washington and
Oregon, water availability may be a
limiting factor in future productivity,
with gains at higher elevations
but declines at lower elevations.
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Looking at the Big Picture: The Importance of Landbase Interactions Among Forests, Agriculture, and Climate Mitigation Policies
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Land use change is a key part of global
change. Deforestation, urban sprawl,
agriculture, and other human influences
have substantially altered natural ecosystems
and fragmented the global landscape.
Slowing down deforestation and
afforesting environmentally sensitive
agricultural land are important steps for
mitigating climate change. Because no
policy operates in a vacuum, however,
it’s important to consider how separate
climate mitigation policies might interact
with each other.
Ralph Alig, a scientist with the Pacific
Northwest Research Station, and his colleagues
evaluated the potential impacts
of policy instruments available for climate
change mitigation. By using the
Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization
Greenhouse Gases model, the
researchers analyzed how land might
shift between forestry and agriculture
and to more developed uses depending
on different land use policies and several
carbon pricing scenarios. They also
examined the likely effects on timber,
crop prices, and bioenergy production
if landowners were paid to sequester
carbon on their land. The researchers
found that projected competition for raw
materials is greatest in the short term,
over the first 25 years of the 50-year
projections.
Climate change is occurring within a
matrix of other changes. By 2050, an additional
3 billion people are expected to
be living on Earth, needing food, clean
water, and places to live. Incentives
for landowners to maintain undeveloped
land will be vital to sequestering
carbon and providing other services of
intact ecosystems
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Managing Wildfire Risk in Fire-Prone Landscapes: How Are Private Landowners Contributing?
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The fire-prone landscapes of the West
include both public and private lands.
Wildfire burns indiscriminately across
property boundaries, which means that the
way potential fuels are managed on one
piece of property can affect wildfire risk
on neighboring lands.
Paige Fischer and Susan Charnley,
social scientists with the Pacific Northwest
Research Station, surveyed private
landowners in eastern Oregon to learn
how they perceive fire risk on their land
and what they do, if anything, to reduce
that risk. The scientists found that owners
who live on a forested parcel are much
more likely to reduce fuels than are those
who live elsewhere. Private forest owners
are aware of fire risk and knowledgeable
about methods for reducing fuels, but
are constrained by the costs and technical
challenges of protecting large acreages of
forested land. Despite the collective benefits
of working cooperatively, most of these
owners reduce hazardous fuels on their
land independently, primarily because of
their distrust about working with others,
and because of social norms associated
with private property ownership.
These results provide guidance for developing
more effective fuel reduction programs
that accommodate the needs and
preferences of private forest landowners.
The findings also indicate the potential
benefits of bringing landowners into collective
units to work cooperatively, raising
awareness about landscape-scale fire
risk, and promoting strategies for an “alllands”
approach to reducing wildfire risk
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Forests in Decline: Yellow-Cedar Research Yields Prototype for Climate Change Adaptation Planning
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Yellow-cedar has been dying across
600 miles of North Pacific coastal rain
forest—from Alaska to British Columbia—since
about 1880. Thirty years
ago, a small group of pathologists began
investigating possible biotic causes
of the decline. When no biotic cause
could be found, the scope broadened
into a research program that eventually
encompassed the fields of ecology,
soils, hydrology, ecophysiology, dendrochronology,
climatology, and landscape
analysis. Combined studies ultimately
revealed that the loss of this culturally,
economically, and ecologically valuable
tree is caused by a warming climate,
reduced snowpack, poor soil drainage,
and the species’ shallow roots. These
factors lead to fine-root freezing, which
eventually kills the trees.
The considerable knowledge gained
while researchers sought the cause
of widespread yellow-cedar mortality
forms the basis for a conservation
and adaptive management strategy. A
new approach to mapping that overlays
topography, cedar populations, soil
drainage, and snow enables land managers
to pinpoint locations where yellowcedar
habitat is expected to be suitable
or threatened in the future, thereby
bringing climate change predictions into
management scenarios.
The research program serves as a
prototype for evaluating the effects of
climate change in other landscapes. It
shows the value of long-term, multidisciplinary
research that encourages scientists
and land managers to work together
toward developing adaptive management
strategies
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Tangled Trends for Temperate Rain Forests as Temperatures Tick Up
-
Climate change is altering growing
conditions in the temperate rain forest
region that extends from northern California
to the Gulf of Alaska. Longer,
warmer growing seasons are generally
increasing the overall potential for
forest growth in the region. However,
species differ in their ability to adapt
to changing conditions. For example,
researchers with Pacific Northwest
Research Station examined forest
trends for southeastern and southcentral
Alaska and found that, in 13
years, western redcedar showed a
4.2-percent increase in live-tree biomass,
while shore pine showed a
4.6-percent decrease. In general, the
researchers found that the amount of
live-tree biomass in extensive areas
of unmanaged, higher elevation forest
in southern Alaska increased by
as much as 8 percent over the 13-year
period, contributing to significant
carbon storage.
Hemlock dwarf mistletoe is another species
expected to fare well under warmer
conditions in Alaska. Model projections
indicate that habitat for this parasitic
species could increase 374 to 757 percent
over the next 100 years. This could
temper the prospects for western hemlock—a
tree species otherwise expected
to do well under future climate conditions
projected for southern Alaska.
In coastal forests of Washington and
Oregon, water availability may be a
limiting factor in future productivity,
with gains at higher elevations
but declines at lower elevations
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
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Logging Debris Matters: Better Soil, Fewer Invasive Plants
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The logging debris that remains after
timber harvest traditionally has been seen
as a nuisance. It can make subsequent tree
planting more difficult and become fuel
for wildfire. It is commonly piled, burned,
or taken off site. Logging debris, however,
contains significant amounts of carbon
and nitrogen—elements critical to soil
productivity. Its physical presence in the
regenerating forest creates microclimates
that influence a broad range of soil and
plant processes.
Researchers Tim Harrington of the
Pacific Northwest Research Station;
Robert Slesak, a soil scientist with the
Minnesota Forest Resources Council;
and Stephen Schoenholtz, a professor of
forest hydrology and soils at Virginia
Tech, conducted a five-year study at two
sites in Washington and Oregon to see
how retaining logging debris affected
the soil and other growing conditions at
each locale.
They found that keeping logging debris in
place improved soil fertility, especially in
areas with coarse-textured, nutrient-poor
soils. Soil nitrogen and other nutrients
important to tree growth increased, and
soil water availability increased due to the
debris’ mulching effect. The debris cooled
the soil, which slowed the breakdown and
release of soil carbon into the atmosphere.
It also helped prevent invasive species such
as Scotch broom and trailing blackberry
from dominating the sites.
Forest managers are using this information
to help maximize the land’s productivity
while reducing their costs associated with
debris disposal.
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Seasonal Neighbors: Residential Development Encroaches on Mule Deer Winter Range in Central Oregon
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Mule deer populations in central Oregon
are in decline, largely because of habitat
loss. Several factors are likely contributors.
Encroaching juniper and invasive
cheatgrass are replacing deer forage
with high nutritional value, such as bitterbrush
and sagebrush. Fire suppression
and reduced timber harvests mean fewer
acres of early successional forest, which
also offer forage opportunities. Human
development, including homes and roads,
is another factor. It is this one that scientists
with the Pacific Northwest Research
Station and their collaborators investigated
in a recent study.
As part of an interagency assessment of
the ecological effects of resort development
near Bend, Oregon, researchers
examined recent and potential development
rates and patterns and evaluated
their impact on mule deer winter range.
They found that residential development
in central Oregon is upsetting traditional
migratory patterns, reducing available
habitat, and possibly increasing stress
for mule deer. Many herds of mule deer
spend the summer in the Cascade Range
and move to lower elevations during the
winter. An increasing number of buildings,
vehicle traffic, fencing, and other
obstacles that accompany human land
use are making it difficult for mule deer
to access and use their winter habitat.
The study provides valuable information
for civic leaders, land use planners,
and land managers to use in weighing
the ecological impact of various land use
decisions in central Oregon.
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Thinking Big: Linking Rivers to Landscapes
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Exploring relationships between
landscape characteristics and rivers is
an emerging field of study, bolstered
by the proliferation of satellite data,
advances in statistical analysis,
and increased emphasis on largescale
monitoring. Climate patterns
and landscape features such as road
networks, underlying geology, and
human developments determine the
characteristics of the rivers flowing
through them. A multiagency team of
scientists developed novel modeling
methods to link these landscape features
to instream habitat and to abundance of
coho salmon in Oregon coastal streams.
This is the first comprehensive analysis
of landscape-scale data collected as
part of the state’s Oregon Plan for
Salmon and Watersheds.
The research team found that watershed
characteristics and human activities
far from the river’s edge influence
the distribution and habitats of coho
salmon. Although large-scale landscape
characteristics can predict stream
reaches that might support greater
numbers of coho salmon, smaller
scale features and random chance
also play a role in whether coho
spawn in a particular stream and in a
particular year. The team developed
new models that successfully predicted
the distribution of instream habitat
features. Volume of instream wood
and pool frequency were the features
most influenced by human activities.
Studying these relationships can help
guide large-scale monitoring and
management of aquatic resources.
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Mount St. Helens: Still Erupting Lessons 31 Years Later
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The massive volcanic eruption of
Mount St. Helens 31 years ago provided
the perfect backdrop for studying the
earliest stages of forest development.
Immediately after the eruption, some
areas of the blast area were devoid
of life. On other parts of the volcanic
landscape, many species survived,
although their numbers were greatly
reduced. Reassembly began at many
different starting points along the
spectrum of disturbance. Within the
national volcanic monument, natural
regeneration generally has been
allowed to proceed at its own pace.
Charlie Crisafulli and Fred Swanson,
scientists with the Pacific Northwest
Research Station, along with numerous
collaborators, have found that the sunlit
environment, dominated by shrubs,
herbs, and grasses that characterize
early-seral ecosystems, supports complex
food webs involving numerous
herbivores. These biologically rich
areas provide habitat for plant and
animal species that are either found
only in these early-seral ecosystems or
reach their highest densities there.
Although much of the focus of forest
ecosystem management over the past
20 years in the Pacific Northwest has
been on protecting old forests and
hastening development of conditions
associated with older forests, the
research on Mount St. Helens points
to the ecological value of allowing a
portion of a managed landscape to
develop characteristics of a complex
early-seral ecosystem
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