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Carbon Dynamics of the Forest Sector
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Main points: The basic ecosystem science behind carbon dynamics in forests is relatively straightforward (really!).This science doesn’t seem to be applied very routinely in the policy arena. This mismatch is undermining the potential of the forest sector in helping to mitigate greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
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Carbon sequestration in the U.S. forest sector from 1990 to 2010
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From 1990 through 2005, the forest sector (including forests and wood products) sequestered an average 162 Tg C year1 . In 2005, 49% of the total forest sector sequestration was in live and dead trees, 27% was
in wood products in landfills, with the remainder in down dead wood, wood products in use, and forest floor and soil. The pools with the largest carbon stocks were not the same as those with the largest sequestration rates, except for the tree pool. For example, landfilled wood products comprise only 3% of total stocks but account for 27% of carbon sequestration. Conversely, forest soils comprise 48% of total stocks but account for only 2% of carbon sequestration. For the tree pool, the spatial pattern of carbon stocks was dissimilar to that of carbon flux. On an area basis, tree carbon stocks were highest in the Pacific Northwest, while changes were generally greatest in the upper Midwest and the Northeast. Net carbon sequestration in the forest sector in 2005 offset 10% of U.S. CO2 emissions. In the near future, we project that U.S. forests will continue to sequester carbon at a rate similar to that in recent years. Based on a comparison of our estimates to a compilation of land-based estimates of non-forest carbon sinks from the literature, we estimate that the conterminous U.S. annually sequesters 149–330 Tg C year1. Forests, urban trees, and wood products are responsible for 65–91% of this sink.
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Changes in Avian and Plant Communities of Aspen Woodlands over 12 Years after Livestock Removal in the Northwestern Great Basin
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Riparian and quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) woodlands are centers of avian abundance and diversity in the western United States, but they have been affected adversely by land use practices, particularly livestock grazing. In 1990, cattle were removed from a 112,500-ha national wildlife refuge in southeastern Oregon. Thereafter, we monitored changes in vegetation and bird abundance in years 1–3 (phase 1) and 10–12 (phase 2) in 17 riparian and 9 snow-pocket aspen plots. On each 1.5-ha plot, we sampled vegetation in 6 transects. Three times during each breeding season, observers recorded all birds 50 m to each side of the plot’s 150-m centerline for 25 minutes. We analyzed data with multivariate analysis of variance and paired t tests with p values adjusted for multiple comparisons. In both periods, riparian and snow-pocket aspen produced extensive regeneration of new shoots ( x ̄ = 2646 stems/ha and 7079 stems/ha, respectively). By phase 2, a 64% increase in medium-diameter trees in riparian stands indicated successful recruitment into the overstory, but this pattern was not seen in snow-pocket stands, where the density of trees was over 2 times greater. By phase 2 in riparian and snow-pocket stands, native forb cover had increased by 68% and 57%, respectively, mesic shrub cover had increased by 29% and 58%, and sagebrush cover had decreased by 24% and 31%. Total avian abundance increased by 33% and 39% in riparian and snow-pocket aspen, respectively, ground or understory nesters increased by 133% and 67% and overstory nesters increased by 34% and 33%. Similarly, ground or understory foragers increased by 25% and 32%, aerial foragers by 55% and 57%, and overstory foragers by 66% and 43%. We interpreted the substantial regeneration of aspen shoots, increased densities of riparian forbs and shrubs, and increased avian abundances as a multitrophic-level response to the total removal of livestock and as substantial movement toward recovery of biological integrity.
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Changes in climate and land use have a larger direct impact than rising CO2 on global river runoff trends
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The significant worldwide increase in observed river runoff has been tentatively attributed to the stomatal ‘‘antitranspirant’’ response of plants to rising atmospheric CO2 [Gedney N, Cox PM, Betts RA, Boucher O, Huntingford C, Stott PA (2006) Nature 439: 835– 838]. However, CO2 also is a plant fertilizer. When allowing for the increase in foliage area that results from increasing atmospheric CO2 levels in a global vegetation model, we find a decrease in global runoff from 1901 to 1999. This finding highlights the importance of vegetation structure feedback on the water balance of the land surface. Therefore, the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration does not explain the estimated increase in global runoff over the last century. In contrast, we find that changes in mean climate, as well as its variability, do contribute to the global runoff increase. Using historic land-use data, we show that land-use change plays an additional important role in controlling regional runoff values, particularly in the tropics. Land-use change has been strongest in tropical regions, and its contribution is substantially larger than that of climate change. On average, land-use change has increased global runoff by 0.08 mm/year2 and accounts for 50% of the reconstructed global runoff trend over the last century. Therefore, we emphasize the importance of land-cover change in forecasting future freshwater availability and climate.
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Citizen Involvement in the U.S. Endangered Species Act
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Data on listed species refute critiques of citizen involvement in the U.S. Endangered Species Act.
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Climate change and tropical biodiversity: a new focus
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Considerable efforts are focused on the consequences of climate change for tropical rainforests. However, potentially the greatest threats to tropical biodiversity (synergistic interactions between climatic changes and human land use) remain understudied. Key concerns are that aridification could increase the accessibility of previously non-arable or remote lands, elevate fire impacts and exacerbate ecological effects of habitat disturbance. The growing climatic change literature often fails to appreciate that, in coming decades, climate–land use interac- tions might be at least as important as abiotic changes per se for the fate of tropical biodiversity. In this review, we argue that protected area expansion along key ecological gradients, regulation of human-lit fires, strategic forest–carbon financing and re-evaluations of agricultural and biofuel subsidies could ameliorate some of these synergistic threats.
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Climate Change, Aboveground-Belowground Interactions, and Species’ Range Shifts
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Changes in climate, land use, fire incidence, and ecological connections all may contribute to current species’ range shifts. Species shift range individually, and not all species shift range at the same time and rate. This variation causes community reorganization in both the old and new ranges. In terrestrial ecosystems, range shifts alter aboveground-belowground interactions, influencing species abundance, community composition, ecosystem processes and services, and feedbacks within communities and ecosystems. Thus, range shifts may result in no-analog communities where foundation species and community genetics play unprecedented roles, possibly leading to novel ecosystems. Long-distance dispersal can enhance the disruption of aboveground-belowground interactions of plants, herbivores, pathogens, symbiotic mutualists, and decomposer organisms. These effects are most likely stronger for latitudinal than for altitudinal range shifts. Disrupted aboveground-belowground interactions may have influenced historical postglacial range shifts as well. Assisted migration without considering aboveground-belowground interactions could enhance risks of such range shift–induced invasions.
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Climatic Impact of Tropical Lowland Deforestation on Nearby Montane Cloud Forests
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Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCFs) depend on predictable, frequent, and prolonged immersion in cloud. Clearing upwind lowland forest alters surface energy budgets in ways that influence dry season cloud fields and thus the TMCF environment. Landsat and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite imagery show that deforested areas of Costa Rica’s Caribbean lowlands remain relatively cloud-free when forested regions have well-developed dry season cumulus cloud fields. Further, regional atmospheric simulations show that cloud base heights are higher over pasture than over tropical forest areas under reasonable dry season conditions. These results suggest that land use in tropical lowlands has serious impacts on ecosystems in adjacent mountains.
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CO2 emissions from land-use change affected more by nitrogen cycle, than by the choice of land-cover data
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The high uncertainty in land-based CO2 fluxes estimates is thought to be mainly due to uncertainty in not only quantifying historical changes among forests, croplands, and grassland, but also due to different processes included in calculation methods. Inclusion of a nitrogen (N) cycle in models is fairly recent and strongly affects carbon (C) fluxes. In this study, for the first time, we use a model with C and N dynamics with three distinct historical reconstructions of land-use and land-use change (LULUC) to quantify LULUC emissions and uncertainty that includes the integrated effects of not only climate and CO2 but also N. The modeled global average emissions including N dynamics for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2005 were 1.8 ` 0.2, 1.7 ` 0.2, and 1.4 ` 0.2 GtC yr␣1, respectively, (mean and range across LULUC data sets). The emissions from tropics were 0.8 ` 0.2, 0.8 ` 0.2, and 0.7 ` 0.3 GtC yr␣1, and the non tropics were 1.1 ` 0.5, 0.9 ` 0.2, and 0.7 ` 0.1 GtC yr␣1. Compared to previous studies that did not include N dynamics, modeled net LULUC emissions were higher, particularly in the non tropics. In the model, N limitation reduces regrowth rates of vegetation in temperate areas resulting in higher net emissions. Our results indicate that exclusion of N dynamics leads to an underestimation of LULUC emissions by around 70% in the non tropics, 10% in the tropics, and 40% globally in the 1990s. The differences due to inclusion/exclusion of the N cycle of 0.1 GtC yr␣1 in the tro- pics, 0.6 GtC yr␣1 in the non tropics, and 0.7 GtC yr␣1 globally (mean across land-cover data sets) in the 1990s were greater than differences due to the land-cover data in the non tropics and globally (0.2 GtC yr␣1). While land-cover information is improving with satellite and inventory data, this study indicates the importance of accounting for different processes, in particular the N cycle.
Keywords: carbon cycle, carbon emissions, land-use change, model, nitrogen cycle
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Detection and Attribution of Streamflow Timing Changes to Climate Change in the Western United States
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This article applies formal detection and attribution techniques to investigate the nature of observed shifts in the timing of streamflow in the western United States. Previous studies have shown that the snow hy- drology of the western United States has changed in the second half of the twentieth century. Such changes manifest themselves in the form of more rain and less snow, in reductions in the snow water contents, and in earlier snowmelt and associated advances in streamflow ‘‘center’’ timing (the day in the ‘‘water-year’’ on average when half the water-year flow at a point has passed). However, with one exception over a more limited domain, no other study has attempted to formally attribute these changes to anthropogenic increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the observations together with a set of global climate model simulations and a hydrologic model (applied to three major hydrological regions of the western United States—the California region, the upper Colorado River basin, and the Columbia River basin), it is found that the observed trends toward earlier ‘‘center’’ timing of snowmelt-driven streamflows in the western United States since 1950 are detectably different from natural variability (significant at the p , 0.05 level). Furthermore, the nonnatural parts of these changes can be attributed confidently to climate changes induced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone, and land use. The signal from the Columbia dominates the analysis, and it is the only basin that showed a detectable signal when the analysis was performed on individual basins. It should be noted that although climate change is an important signal, other climatic processes have also contributed to the hydrologic variability of large basins in the western United States.
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