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A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
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Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a ‘systematic trend’. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
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A LIDAR‐DERIVED EVALUATION OF WATERSHED‐SCALE LARGE WOODY DEBRIS SOURCES AND RECRUITMENT MECHANISMS: COASTAL MAINE, USA
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In‐channel large woody debris (LWD) promotes quality aquatic habitat through sediment sorting, pool scouring and in‐stream nutrient retention and transport. LWD recruitment occurs by numerous ecological and geomorphic mechanisms including channel migration, mass wasting and natural tree fall, yet LWD sourcing on the watershed scale remains poorly constrained. We developed a rapid and spatially extensive method for using light detection and ranging data to do the following: (i) estimate tree height and recruitable tree abundance throughout a watershed; (ii) determine the likelihood for the stream to recruit channel‐spanning trees at reach scales and assess whether mass wasting or channel migration is a dominant recruitment mechanism; and (iii) understand the contemporary and future distribution of LWD at a watershed scale. We utilized this method on the 78‐km‐long Narraguagus River in coastal Maine and found that potential channel‐spanning LWD composes approximately 6% of the valley area over the course of the river and is concentrated in spatially discrete reaches along the stream, with 5 km of the river valley accounting for 50% of the total potential LWD found in the system. We also determined that 83% of all potential LWD is located on valley sides, as opposed to 17% on floodplain and terrace surfaces. Approximately 3% of channel‐spanning vegetation along the river is located within one channel width of the stream. By examining topographic and morphologic variables (valley width, channel sinuosity, valley‐ side slope) over the length of the stream, we evaluated the dominant recruitment processes along the river and often found a spatial disconnect between the location of potential channel‐spanning LWD and recruitment mechanisms, which likely explains the low levels of LWD currently found in the system. This rapid method for identification of LWD sources is extendable to other basins and may prove valuable in locating future restoration projects aimed at increasing habitat quality through wood additions.
key words: large woody debris; lidar; river restoration; habitat
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Increasing Northern Hemisphere water deficit
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A monthly water-balance model is used with CRUTS3.1 gridded monthly precip- itation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) data to examine changes in global water deficit (PET minus actual evapotranspiration) for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) for the years 1905 through 2009. Results show that NH deficit increased dramatically near the year 2000 during both the cool (October through March) and warm (April through September) seasons. The increase in water deficit near 2000 coincides with a substantial increase in NH temperature and PET. The most pronounced increases in deficit occurred for the latitudinal band from 0 to 40°N. These results indicate that global warming has increased the water deficit in the NH and that the increase since 2000 is unprecedented for the 1905 through 2009 period. Additionally, coincident with the increase in deficit near 2000, mean NH runoff also increased due to increases in P. We explain the apparent contradiction of concurrent increases in deficit and increases in runoff.
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Seeing the landscape for the trees: Metrics to guide riparian shade management in river catchments
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Rising water temperature (Tw) due to anthropogenic climate change may have serious conse- quences for river ecosystems. Conservation and/or expansion of riparian shade could counter warming and buy time for ecosystems to adapt. However, sensitivity of river reaches to direct solar radiation is highly het- erogeneous in space and time, so benefits of shading are also expected to be site specific. We use a network of high-resolution temperature measurements from two upland rivers in the UK, in conjunction with topo- graphic shade modeling, to assess the relative significance of landscape and riparian shade to the thermal behavior of river reaches. Trees occupy 7% of the study catchments (comparable with the UK national aver- age) yet shade covers 52% of the area and is concentrated along river corridors. Riparian shade is most ben- eficial for managing Tw at distances 5–20 km downstream from the source of the rivers where discharge is modest, flow is dominated by near-surface hydrological pathways, there is a wide floodplain with little land- scape shade, and where cumulative solar exposure times are sufficient to affect Tw. For the rivers studied, we find that approximately 0.5 km of complete shade is necessary to off-set Tw by 18C during July (the month with peak Tw) at a headwater site; whereas 1.1 km of shade is required 25 km downstream. Further research is needed to assess the integrated effect of future changes in air temperature, sunshine duration, direct solar radiation, and downward diffuse radiation on Tw to help tree planting schemes achieve
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Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change
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Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat have generally assumed uniform air–water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air–water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA, 78 sites in nine watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air–water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air–water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach
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Effect of fine wood on juvenile brown trout behaviour in experimental stream channels
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In-stream wood can increase shelter availability and prey abundance for stream-living fish such as brown trout, Salmo trutta, but the input of wood to streams has decreased in recent years due to harvesting of riparian vegetation. During the last decades, fine wood (FW) has been increasingly used for biofuel, and the input of FW to streams may therefore decrease. Although effects of in-stream FW have not been studied as extensively as those of large wood (LW), it is probably important as shelter for small-sized trout. In a laboratory stream experiment, we tested the behavioural response of young-of-the-year wild brown trout to three densities of FW, with trout tested alone and in groups of four. Video recordings were used to measure the proportion of time allocated to sheltering, cruising and foraging, as well as the number of aggressive interactions and prey attacks. Cruising activity increased with decreasing FW density and was higher in the four-fish groups than when fish were alone. Foraging decreased and time spent sheltering in FW increased with increasing FW density. Our study shows that juvenile trout activity is higher in higher fish densities and that trout response to FW is related to FW density and differs from the response to LW as reported by others.
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Riparian Restoration Decision Support Tool
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An innovative riparian planting and restoration decision support tool is now available to the conservation community. This user-friendly tool allows managers and decision-makers to rapidly identify and prioritize areas along the banks of rivers, streams, and lakes for restoration, making these ecosystems more resilient to disturbance and future changes in climate. It will also help the conservation community invest limited conservation dollars wisely, helping to deliver sustainable resources.
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Tools & Resources
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Report: Riparian Prioritization and Status Assessment for Climate Change Resilience of Coldwater Stream Habitats within the Appalachian and Northeastern Regions
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Among a host of other critical ecosystem functions, intact riparian forests can help to reduce vulnerability of coldwater stream habitats to warming regional temperatures. Restoring and conserving these forests can therefore be an important part of regional and landscape-scale conservation plans, but managers need science and decision-support tools to help determine when these actions will be most effective. To help fill this need, we developed the Riparian Prioritization for Climate Change Resilience (RPCCR) web-based decision support tool to quickly and easily identify, based on current riparian cover and predicted vulnerability to air temperature warming, sites that are priority candidates for riparian restoration and conservation.
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Riparian Restoration Decision Support Tool
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Fact Sheet: Riparian Restoration Decision Support Tool
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An innovative web-based tool - funded by the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) and developed by researchers from the U.S. Forest Service and
the University of Massachusetts - is allowing managers to rapidly identify high-priority riparian targets for restoration to make more resilient in preparation for changes in future climate. The Riparian Restoration Prioritization to Promote Climate Change Resilience (RPCCR) tool identifies vulnerable stream and riverbanks that lack tree cover and shade in coldwater stream habitats. By locating the best spots to plant trees in riparian zones, resource managers can provide shade that limits the amount of solar radiation heating the water and reduces the impacts from climate change. This well-established management strategy will benefit high-elevation, cold-water aquatic communities.
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Riparian Restoration Decision Support Tool
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Map of Federally Listed Aquatic Species in Virginia Portion of UTRB
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Map depicting listed and candidate aquatic species in the Upper Tennessee hydrologic sub-unit of Virginia.
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Maps
