-
Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios
-
The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario — consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C — is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
All Downhill From Here?
-
Biologists say climate change may already be affecting high-mountain ecosystems around the world, where plants and animals adapted to cold, barren conditions now face higher temperatures and a surge of predators and competitors
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming
-
Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species’ responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space- limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the impor- tance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identify- ing processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understand- ing of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot
-
Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems1–3. In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia -- a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism 4,5 -- experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2–4 ◦ C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000 km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
Dettmers, Randy
-
I work on conservation planning (biological foundation and landscape design) for birds of conservation concern, with a focus on landbirds, as well as designing and implementing monitoring programs to track population status of such species and evaluate the success of conservation actions for these species.
Located in
Expertise Search
-
(pdf) Reptiles
-
Includes brief species/habitat information
Located in
Cooperative
/
…
/
SC Indicator and Surrogate Species Work Group
/
Species List & Habitat Association List
-
(pdf) Mammals
-
Includes brief species/habitat information
Located in
Cooperative
/
…
/
SC Indicator and Surrogate Species Work Group
/
Species List & Habitat Association List
-
(pdf) Birds
-
Includes brief species/habitat information
Located in
Cooperative
/
…
/
SC Indicator and Surrogate Species Work Group
/
Species List & Habitat Association List
-
(pdf) Bivalves
-
Includes brief species/habitat information
Located in
Cooperative
/
…
/
SC Indicator and Surrogate Species Work Group
/
Species List & Habitat Association List
-
(pdf) Amphibians
-
Includes brief species/habitat information
Located in
Cooperative
/
…
/
SC Indicator and Surrogate Species Work Group
/
Species List & Habitat Association List