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A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
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Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the
future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with
climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in
many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climateinduced
physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect
outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that
lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of
climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree
mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of
climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world’s forested ecosystems
already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly
vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and
drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests
risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric
feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently
hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a
globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree
mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.
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Climate Science Documents
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Are conservation organizations configured for effective adaptation to global change?
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Conservation organizations must adapt to respond to the ecological impacts of global change. Numerous
changes to conservation actions (eg facilitated ecological transitions, managed relocations, or increased corridordevelopment) have been recommended, but some institutional restructuring within organizations may also be needed. Here we discuss the capacity of conservation organizations to adapt to changing environmental
conditions, focusing primarily on public agencies and nonprofits active in land protection and management
in the US. After first reviewing how these organizations anticipate and detect impacts affecting target
species and ecosystems, we then discuss whether they are sufficiently flexible to prepare and respond by reallocating funding, staff, or other resources. We raise new hypotheses about how the configuration of different
organizations enables them to protect particular conservation targets and manage for particular biophysical
changes that require coordinated management actions over different spatial and temporal scales. Finally, we
provide a discussion resource to help conservation organizations assess their capacity to adapt.
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Climate Science Documents
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Growing feedback from ocean carbon to climate
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The finding that feedbacks between the ocean’s carbon cycle and climate may
become larger than terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks has implications for the
socio-economic effects of today’s fossil-fuel emissions.
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Climate Science Documents
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South-Central Interior Small Stream and Riparian Habitat
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This habitat was assessed in both the Cumberland - Southern Appalachian subregion and the Interior Low Plateau subregion. Results are in the first two tabs of the spreadsheet. A description of the habitat, and a list of associated species, is included in the description tab. The remaining tabs describe the individual factors and their definitions. These results are in the review stage. Please send comments to lesley_sneddon@natureserve.org.
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Research
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Phase II: Vulnerability Assessments
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Habitat Vulnerability Assessments
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South-Central Interior Small Stream and Riparian Habitat
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This habitat was assessed in both the Cumberland - Southern Appalachian subregion and the Interior Low Plateau subregion. Results are in the first two tabs of the spreadsheet. A description of the habitat, and a list of associated species, is included in the description tab. The remaining tabs describe the individual factors and their definitions. These results are in the review stage. Please send comments to lesley_sneddon@natureserve.org.
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Vulnerability
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Phase II: Vulnerability Assessments
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Habitat Vulnerability Assessments
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The eDNA revolution & developing comprehensive aquatic biodiversity archives
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Measuring & understanding the effects of climate change on aquatic life requires an accurate baseline status assessment that can serve as a benchmark for comparisons through time.
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News & Events
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Managing for Species Adaptive Capacity
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A new paper authored by researchers at federal agencies, regional partnerships, and universities, including Appalachian LCC Coordinator and Senior Scientist Dr. Jean Brennan, proposes a new conceptual paradigm for adaptive capacity.
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News & Events
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Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Habitats to Large-scale Impacts
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New vulnerability assessments for 41 species and 3 habitats in the Appalachians are now available. The conservation community can view and search each of these assessments by vulnerability scores, conservation status ranks, state and subregion of assessment, and higher taxonomy. In addition, principle investigators NatureServe compiled the results of 700 species assessments previously completed by other researchers as well as assessments on several habitats.
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Research
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Funded Projects
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Climate Change Vulnerability
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New climate change vulnerability assessments for 41 species and 3 habitats in the Appalachians are now available. The conservation community can view and search each of these assessments by vulnerability scores, conservation status ranks, state and subregion of assessment, and higher taxonomy. In addition, principle investigators NatureServe compiled the results of 700 species assessments previously completed by other researchers as well as assessments on several habitats.
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Vulnerability
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Riparian Restoration Decision Support Tool
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An innovative riparian planting and restoration decision support tool is now available to the conservation community. This user-friendly tool allows managers and decision-makers to rapidly identify and prioritize areas along the banks of rivers, streams, and lakes for restoration, making these ecosystems more resilient to disturbance and future changes in climate. It will also help the conservation community invest limited conservation dollars wisely, helping to deliver sustainable resources.
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Tools & Resources
