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Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
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Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies (1,2), but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries (3,4). In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature (5), while poor countries respond only linearly (5,6). Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human–natural systems (7,8) and to anticipating the global impact of climate change (9,10). Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non- linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 6C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change (11,12), with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
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Climate Science Documents
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A Chinese cave links climate change, social impacts, and human adaptation over the last 500 years
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The collapse of some pre-historical and historical cultures, including Chinese dynasties were presumably linked to widespread droughts, on the basis of synchronicities of societal crises and proxy-based climate events. Here, we present a comparison of ancient inscriptions in Dayu Cave from Qinling Mountains, central China, which described accurate times and detailed impacts of seven drought events during the period of 1520–1920 CE, with high-resolution speleothem records from the same cave. The comparable results provide unique and robust tests on relationships among speleothem δ18O changes, drought events, and societal unrest. With direct historical evidences, our results suggest that droughts and even modest events interrupting otherwise wet intervals can cause serious social crises. Modeling results of speleothem δ18O series suggest that future precipitation in central China may be below the average of the past 500 years. As Qinling Mountain is the main recharge area of two large water transfer projects and habitats of many endangered species, it is imperative to explore an adaptive strategy for the decline in precipitation and/or drought events.
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Climate Science Documents
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Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests
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Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle(1,2), and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century (3). However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions (4). We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan bo- real forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord5 led to simulated C losses of 1.4 kg C m?2(12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3 kg C m?2 occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends6 and future projections (7) point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions (8) that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 may be over-optimistic.
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Climate Science Documents
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Riparian Restoration Decision Support Tool
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An innovative riparian planting and restoration decision support tool is now available to the conservation community. This user-friendly tool allows managers and decision-makers to rapidly identify and prioritize areas along the banks of rivers, streams, and lakes for restoration, making these ecosystems more resilient to disturbance and future changes in climate. It will also help the conservation community invest limited conservation dollars wisely, helping to deliver sustainable resources.
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Tools & Resources
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Riparian Restoration Decision Support Tool
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An innovative riparian planting and restoration decision support tool is now available to the conservation community. This user-friendly tool allows managers and decision-makers to rapidly identify and prioritize areas along the banks of rivers, streams, and lakes for restoration, making these ecosystems more resilient to disturbance and future changes in climate. It will also help the conservation community invest limited conservation dollars wisely, helping to deliver sustainable resources.
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Tools & Resources
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Online Screening of "One Stick at a Time
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This film follows land managers in the Methow Valley, Washington for over a year, from forests to rivers, from fires to snowfall, from beaver capture to release as they try to come to grips with the impacts of climate change and the possible adaptation options right in front of them.
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Events
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Researchers Seek a Sneak Peek Into the Future of Forests
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In May 2015, scores of scientists from dozens of research institutions descended on a patch of forest in central North Carolina, taking samples of everything from ants and mites to other microbes – samples they hope will offer a glimpse into the future of forest ecosystems.
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News & Events
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Managing for Species Adaptive Capacity
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A new paper authored by researchers at federal agencies, regional partnerships, and universities, including Appalachian LCC Coordinator and Senior Scientist Dr. Jean Brennan, proposes a new conceptual paradigm for adaptive capacity.
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The eDNA revolution & developing comprehensive aquatic biodiversity archives
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Measuring & understanding the effects of climate change on aquatic life requires an accurate baseline status assessment that can serve as a benchmark for comparisons through time.
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News & Events
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A Race Against the Clock for Brook Trout Conservation
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Are brook trout destined for extinction? That is a future that Shannon White, a Ph.D. student working with Dr. Tyler Wagner at the USGS Pennsylvania Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at Penn State University, is working to avoid.
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