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Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production
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Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies (1,2), but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries (3,4). In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature (5), while poor countries respond only linearly (5,6). Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human–natural systems (7,8) and to anticipating the global impact of climate change (9,10). Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non- linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 6C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change (11,12), with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.
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Global separation of plant transpiration from groundwater and streamflow
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Current land surface models assume that groundwater, streamflow and plant transpiration are all sourced and mediated by the same well mixed water reservoir—the soil. However, recent work in Oregon1 and Mexico2 has shown evidence of ecohydrological sepa- ration, whereby different subsurface compartmentalized pools of water supply either plant transpiration fluxes or the combined fluxes of groundwater and streamflow. These findings have not yet been widely tested. Here we use hydrogen and oxygen isotopic data (2H/1H (d2H) and 18O/16O (d18O)) from 47 globally distrib- uted sites to show that ecohydrological separation is widespread across different biomes. Precipitation, stream water and ground- water from each site plot approximately along the d2H/d18O slope of local precipitation inputs. But soil and plant xylem waters extracted from the 47 sites all plot below the local stream water and groundwater on the meteoric water line, suggesting that plants use soil water that does not itself contribute to groundwater recharge or streamflow. Our results further show that, at 80% of the sites, the precipitation that supplies groundwater recharge and streamflow is different from the water that supplies parts of soil water recharge and plant transpiration. The ubiquity of subsurface water compartmentalization found here, and the segregation of storm types relative to hydrological and ecological fluxes, may be used to improve numerical simulations of runoff generation, stream water transit time and evaporation–transpiration partitioning. Future land surface model parameterizations should be closely examined for how vegetation, groundwater recharge and streamflow are assumed to be coupled.
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Global Vulnerability of Forests to Climate Change-Related Tree Mortality is Widely Underestimated
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Forests worldwide are vulnerable to growing risks of drought- and heat-induced tree mortality and forest die-off because of a rapidly warming Earth, according to just-published research in the scientific journal Ecosphere. The paper is an invited “ESA Centennial Paper” to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the Ecological Society of America.
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Global Warming May Cause Higher Loss of Biodiversity Than Previously Thought
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If global warming continues as expected, it is estimated that almost a third of all flora and fauna species worldwide could become extinct. Scientists from the Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (Biodiversität und Klima Forschungszentrum, BiK-F) and the SENCKENBERG Gesellschaft für Naturkunde discovered that the proportion of actual biodiversity loss should quite clearly be revised upwards: by 2080, more than 80 % of genetic diversity within species may disappear in certain groups of organisms, according to researchers in the title story of the journal Nature Climate Change. The study is the first world-wide to quantify the loss of biological diversity on the basis of genetic diversity.
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General Resources Holdings
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Gonzalez et al 2010_climate_change.pdf
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Project Documents
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Literature
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GOT TREES? Building Climate-Ready Agriculture.
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Agricultural lands are having to meet ever-increasing production and conservation targets. At the same time agriculture’s capacity to deliver these services is being challenged by shifting climate, changing markets, and evolving environmental conditions.
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Greenhouse Gases in Agriculture and Forests
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Dr. Grant Domke and Dr. Charles W. Rice discuss trends in GHG emissions over time, U.S. land sector GHG emissions and removals, the GHG emission intensity of agricultural commodities, and opportunities to reduce emissions and enhance soil carbon sequestration.
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Webinars
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Growing feedback from ocean carbon to climate
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The finding that feedbacks between the ocean’s carbon cycle and climate may
become larger than terrestrial carbon–climate feedbacks has implications for the
socio-economic effects of today’s fossil-fuel emissions.
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Climate Science Documents
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Guide: Making Equity Real in Climate Adaptation and Community Resilience Policies and Programs
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A Guidebook from the Greenlining Insitute, a nonprofit founded in 1993, that works to create a nation where communities of color thrive and race
is never a barrier to economic opportunity.
To prioritize the climate adaptation and community resilience needs of frontline communities and address the historical neglect they have experienced, we must move beyond embracing equity to making it real. This requires centering community needs and building social equity into the very fabric of policies and grant programs that focus on climate adaptation and resilience. To get there, this Guidebook offers policymakers a blueprint on how to operationalize equity in policies and grant programs
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How to work with communities
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Highly anticipated down-scaled climate data to be released this winter
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Global climate models project that Earth’s temperature will warm by about 2°-4°C (about 3°-7°F) in the coming century. But what does that mean for communities, natural resource managers, and other local interests?
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