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Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change?
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Forested watersheds, an important provider of ecosystems services related to water supply, can have their structure, function, and resulting streamflow substantially altered by land use and land cover. Using a retrospective analysis and synthesis of long-term climate and streamflow data (75 years) from six watersheds differing in management histories we explored whether streamflow responded differently to variation in annual temperature and extreme precipitation than unmanaged watersheds. We show significant increases in temperature and the frequency of extreme wet and dry years since the 1980s. Response models explained almost all streamflow variability (adjusted R2 . 0.99). In all cases, changing land use altered streamflow. Observed watershed responses differed significantly in wet and dry extreme years in all but a stand managed as a coppice forest. Converting deciduous stands to pine altered the streamflow response to extreme annual precipitation the most; the apparent frequency of observed extreme wet years decreased on average by sevenfold. This increased soil water storage may reduce flood risk in wet years, but create conditions that could exacerbate drought. Forest management can potentially mitigate extreme annual precipitation associated with climate change; however, offsetting effects suggest the need for spatially explicit analyses of risk and vulnerability.
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Ecological extinction and evolution in the brave new ocean
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The great mass extinctions of the fossil record were a major creative force that provided entirely new kinds of opportunities for the subsequent explosive evolution and diversification of surviving clades. Today, the synergistic effects of human impacts are laying the groundwork for a comparably great Anthropocene mass extinction in the oceans with unknown ecological and evolutionary consequences. Synergistic effects of habitat destruction, overfishing, introduced species, warming, acidification, toxins, and massive runoff of nutrients are transforming once complex ecosystems like coral reefs and kelp forests into monotonous level bottoms, transforming clear and productive coastal seas into anoxic dead zones, and transforming complex food webs topped by big animals into simplified, microbially dominated ecosystems with boom and bust cycles of toxic dinoflagel- late blooms, jellyfish, and disease. Rates of change are increasingly fast and nonlinear with sudden phase shifts to novel alternative community states. We can only guess at the kinds of organisms that will benefit from this mayhem that is radically altering the selective seascape far beyond the consequences of fishing or warming alone. The prospects are especially bleak for animals and plants compared with metabolically flexible microbes and algae. Halting and ultimately reversing these trends will require rapid and fundamental changes in fisheries, agricultural practice, and the emissions of green- house gases on a global scale.
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Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities for Global Health
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Editorial: Journal of the American Medical Association. Health is inextricably linked to climate change. It is important for clinicians to understand this relationship in order to discuss associated health risks with their patients and to inform public policy. To provide new US-based temperature projections from downscaledclimate modeling and to review recent studies on health risks related to climate change and the cobenefits of efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. We searched PubMed from 2009 to 2014 for articles related to climate change and health, focused on governmental reports, predictive models, and empirical epidemiological studies. Of the more than 250 abstracts reviewed, 56 articles were selected. In addition, we analyzed climate data averaged over 13 climate models and based future projections on downscaled probability distributions of the daily maximum temperature for 2046-2065. We also compared maximum daily 8-hour average with air temperature data taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climate Data Center. By 2050, many US cities may experience more frequent extreme heat days. For example, New York and Milwaukee may have 3 times their current average number of days hotter than 32°C (90°F). The adverse health aspects related to climate change may include heat-related disorders, such as heat stress and economic consequences of reduced work capacity; and respiratory disorders, including those exacerbated by fine particulate pollutants, such as asthma and allergic disorders; infectious diseases, including vectorborne diseases and water-borne diseases, such as childhood gastrointestinal diseases; food insecurity, including reduced crop yields and an increase in plant diseases; and mental health disorders, such as posttraumatic stress disorder and depression, that are associated with natural disasters. Substantial health and economic co-benefits could be associated with reductions in fossil fuel combustion. For example, the cost of greenhouse gas emission policies may yield net economic benefit, with health benefits from air quality improvements potentially offsetting the cost of US carbon policies. Evidence over the past 20 years indicates that climate change can be associated with adverse health outcomes. Health care professionals have an important role in understanding and communicating the related potential health concerns and the cobenefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Climate Change Puts Children in Jeopardy
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From the text: Experts several years ago sounded the alarm on climate change’s potential harm to human health in the years to come. But the impact on a particularly vulnerable group—children—has not received a great deal of attention.
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Carbon Sequestration in Two Created Riverine Wetlands in the Midwestern United States
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Wetlands have the ability to accumulate significant amounts of carbon (C) and thus could provide an effective approach to mitigate greenhouse gas accumulation in the atmosphere. Wetland hydrology, age, and management can affect primary productivity, decomposition, and ultimately C sequestration in riverine wetlands, but these aspects of wetland biogeochemistry have not been adequately investigated, especially in created wetlands. In this study we investigate the ability of created freshwater wetlands to sequester C by determining the sediment accretion and soil C accumulation of two 15-yr-old created wetlands in central Ohio—one planted and one naturally colonized. We measured the amount of sediment and soil C accumulated over the parent material and found that these created wetlands accumulated an average of 242 g C m-2 yr-1, 70% more than a similar natural wetland in the region and 26% more than the rate estimated for these same wetlands 5 yr before this study. The C sequestration of the naturally colonized wetland was 22% higher than that of the planted wetland (267 ± 17 vs. 219 ± 15 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively). Soil C accrual accounted for 66% of the aboveground net primary productivity on average. Open water communities had the highest C accumulation rates in both wetlands. This study shows that created wetlands can be natural, cost-effective tools to sequester C to mitigate the effect of greenhouse gas emissions.
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Ecological Effects of Prescribed Fire Season: A Literature Review and Synthesis for Managers
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Prescribed burning may be conducted at times of the year when fires were infrequent historically, leading to concerns about potential adverse effects on vegetation and wildlife. Historical and prescribed fire regimes for different regions in the continental United States were compared and literature on season of prescribed burning synthesized. In regions and vegetation types where considerable differences in fuel consumption exist among burning seasons, the effects of prescribed fire season appears, for many ecological variables, to be driven more by fire-intensity differences among seasons than by phenology or growth stage of organisms at the time of fire. Where fuel consumption differs little among burning seasons, the effect of phenology or growth stage of organisms is often more apparent, presumably because it is not overwhelmed by fire-intensity differences. Most species in ecosystems that evolved with fire appear to be resilient to one or few out-of-season prescribed burn(s). However, a variable fire regime including prescribed burns at different times of the year may alleviate the potential for undesired changes and maximize biodiversity.
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Density stratification in an estuary with complex geometry: Driving processes and relationship to hypoxia on monthly to inter-annual timescales
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The density field in Narragansett Bay (NB), a northeast U.S. estuary with complex geometry that suffers hypoxia, is described and related to driving factors using monthly means from time series observations at 9 sites during late spring to early fall 2001–2009. Stratification (deep-shallow density difference) is dominated by salinity and strongest (4–7 kg m␣3 in late spring) near rivers in the north and east. Shallow horizontal density gradients are about 0.2 kg m␣3 km␣1; deep densities have minor spatial and seasonal variations. Geographic structure in density, and its inter-annual anomalies, is weaker than expected based on the complex geometry and large size relative to the internal deformation radius. Inter-annual variability is primarily driven by river flow and weakly influenced by winds, contrasting nearby systems (Chesapeake Bay, Long Island Sound), likely due to reduced fetch and/or unfavorable alignment with prevailing winds. Stratification response to river flow follows 2/3 power scaling despite that the theory omits important NB attributes (complex geometry, depth-varying horizontal gradients). Contrasting other systems (Delaware Bay, San Francisco Bay), horizontal gradients are at least as responsive to river forcing as theoretical 1/3 power scaling; depth-dependent horizontal gradients or finite basin constraint of intrusion length may be responsible. Bay-wide inter-annual variations in seasonal hypoxia correlate with late spring stratification, though stratification peaks in the north and east with hypoxia most severe in the north and west. Long-term response of stratification, and thus its role in hypoxia, to climate-driven increases in river flow and temperatures will be dominated by the former.
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Effects of irrigation on global climate during the 20th century
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Various studies have documented the effects of modern‐day irrigation on regional and global climate, but none, to date, have considered the time‐varying impact of steadily increasing irrigation rates on climate during the 20th century. We investigate the impacts of observed irrigation changes over this century with two ensemble simulations using an atmosphere general circulation model. Both ensembles are forced with transient climate forcings and observed sea surface temperatures from 1902 to 2000; one ensemble includes irrigation specified by a time‐varying data set of irrigation water withdrawals. Early in the century, irrigation is primarily localized over southern and eastern Asia, leading to significant cooling in boreal summer (June–August) over these regions. This cooling spreads and intensifies by century’s end, following the rapid expansion of irrigation over North America, Europe, and Asia. Irrigation also leads to boreal winter (December–February) warming over parts of North America and Asia in the latter part of the century, due to enhanced downward longwave fluxes from increased near‐surface humidity. Precipitation increases occur primarily downwind of the major irrigation areas, although precipitation in parts of India decreases due to a weaker summer monsoon. Irrigation begins to significantly reduce temperatures and temperature trends during boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes and tropics beginning around 1950; significant increases in precipitation occur in these same latitude bands. These trends reveal the varying importance of irrigation‐climate interactions and suggest that future climate studies should account for irrigation, especially in regions with unsustainable irrigation resources.
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BOTANY AND A CHANGING WORLD: INTRODUCTION TO THE SPECIAL ISSUE ON GLOBAL BIOLOGICAL CHANGE
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The impacts of global change have heightened the need to understand how organisms respond to and influence these changes. Can we forecast how change at the global scale may lead to biological change? Can we identify systems, processes, and organisms that are most vulnerable to global changes? Can we use this understanding to enhance resilience to global changes? This special issue on global biological change emphasizes the integration of botanical information at different biological levels to gain perspective on the direct and indirect effects of global change. Contributions span a range of spatial scales and include both ecological and evolutionary timescales and highlight work across levels of organization, including cellular and physiological processes, individuals, populations, and ecosystems. Integrative botanical approaches to global change are critical for the eco- logical and evolutionary insights they provide and for the implications these studies have for species conservation and ecosys- tem management.
Key words: community dynamics; flowering phenology; functional traits; global biological change; invasive species; land-use patterns; plant–microbial interactions; species interactions.
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Drought, disease, defoliation and death: forest pathogens as agents of past vegetation change
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The temperate and boreal forests of Europe and North America have been subject to repeated pathogen (fungal disease and phytophagus insect) outbreaks over the last 100 years. Palaeoecology can, potentially, offer a long-term perspective on such disturbance episodes, providing information on their triggers, frequency and impact. Mid-Holocene declines in Tsuga and Ulmus pollen dominate the Quaternary literature on forest pathogens, yet the role of pathogens, and even the presence of pathogenic fungal diseases, during these events has yet to be established. Pathogen-focused research strategies, informed by the sequence of events documented in modern outbreaks, and undertaken at high temporal resolution using a multi-proxy approach, are required. It is argued that forest pathogens are likely to have been significant agents of past vegetation change, even in cases where climate change was the primary stress factor.
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