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Climate change and tropical biodiversity: a new focus
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Considerable efforts are focused on the consequences of climate change for tropical rainforests. However, potentially the greatest threats to tropical biodiversity (synergistic interactions between climatic changes and human land use) remain understudied. Key concerns are that aridification could increase the accessibility of previously non-arable or remote lands, elevate fire impacts and exacerbate ecological effects of habitat disturbance. The growing climatic change literature often fails to appreciate that, in coming decades, climate–land use interac- tions might be at least as important as abiotic changes per se for the fate of tropical biodiversity. In this review, we argue that protected area expansion along key ecological gradients, regulation of human-lit fires, strategic forest–carbon financing and re-evaluations of agricultural and biofuel subsidies could ameliorate some of these synergistic threats.
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Allometry of thermal variables in mammals: consequences of body size and phylogeny
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A large number of analyses have examined how basal metabolic rate (BMR) is affected by body mass in mammals. By contrast, the critical ambient temperatures that define the thermo-neutral zone (TNZ), in which BMR is measured, have received much less attention. We provide the first phylogenetic analyses on scaling of lower and upper critical temperatures and the breadth of the TNZ in 204 mammal species from diverse orders. The phylogenetic signal of thermal variables was strong for all variables analysed. Most allometric relationships between thermal variables and body mass were significant and regressions using phylogenetic analyses fitted the data better than conventional regressions. Allometric exponents for all mammals were 0.19 for the lower critical temperature (expressed as body temperature - lower critical temperature), −0.027 for the upper critical temperature, and 0.17 for the breadth of TNZ. The small exponents for the breadth of the TNZ compared to the large exponents for BMR suggest that BMR per se affects the influence of body mass on TNZ only marginally. However, the breadth of the TNZ is also related to the apparent thermal conductance and it is therefore possible that BMR at different body masses is a function of both the heat exchange in the TNZ and that encountered below and above the TNZ to permit effective homeothermic thermoregulation.
Keywords: allometry,lower critical temperature,mammals,marsupials,thermal neutral zone,upper critical temperature.
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Correlations among species distributions, human density and human infrastructure across the high biodiversity tropical mountains of Africa
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This paper explores whether spatial variation in the biodiversity values of vertebrates and plants (species richness, range-size rarity and number or proportion of IUCN Red Listed threatened species) of three African tropical mountain ranges (Eastern Arc, Albertine Rift and Cameroon-Nigeria mountains within the Biafran Forests and Highlands) co-vary with proxy measures of threat (human population density and human infrastructure). We find that species richness, range-size rarity, and threatened species scores are all significantly higher in these three tropical African mountain ranges than across the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. When compared with the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, human population density is only significantly higher in the Albertine Rift mountains, whereas human infrastructure is only significantly higher in the Albertine Rift and the Cameroon-Nigeria mountains. Statistically there are strong positive correlations between human density and species richness, endemism and density or proportion of threatened species across the three tropical African mountain ranges, and all of sub-Saharan Africa. Kendall partial rank-order correlation shows that across the African tropical mountains human popula- tion density, but not human infrastructure, best correlates with biodiversity values. This is not the case across all of sub-Saharan Africa where human density and human infra- structure both correlate almost equally well with biodiversity values. The primary conser- vation challenge in the African tropical mountains is a fairly dense and poor rural population that is reliant on farming for their livelihood. Conservation strategies have o address agricultural production and expansion, in some cases across the boundaries and into existing reserves. Strategies also have to maintain, or finalise, an adequate protected area network. Such strategies cannot be implemented in conflict with the local population, but have to find ways to provide benefits to the people living adjacent to the remaining for- ested areas, in return for their assistance in conserving the forest habitats, their biodiver- sity, and their ecosystem functions. Africa Biodiversity Human infrastructure Human population Tropical mountains
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Buried by bad decisions
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From the text: Alas, research shows that when human beings make decisions, they tend to focus on what they are getting and forget about what we are forgoing.
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Biodiversity Risks from Fossil Fuel Extraction
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The overlapping of biodiverse areas and fossil fuel reserves indicates high-risk regions.
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C4 Photosynthesis: Differentiating Causation and Coincidence
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Determination of the historical causes of organismal adaptations is difficult, but a recent study has suggested that at least one of the transitions to C4 photosynthesis was directly facilitated by changes in atmospheric CO2 levels. But what about the other 50+ origins of C4?
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A megacity in a changing climate: the case of Kolkata
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Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that there will be an increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes in the 21st century. Kolkata, a megacity in India, has been singled out as one of the urban centers vulnerable to climate risks. Modest flooding during monsoons at high tide in the Hooghly River is a recurring hazard in Kolkata. More intense rainfall, riverine flooding, sea level rise, and coastal storm surges in a changing climate can lead to widespread and severe flooding and bring the city to a standstill for several days. Using rainfall data, high and low emissions scenarios, and sea level rise of 27 cm by 2050, this paper assesses the vulnerability of Kolkata to increasingly intense precipitation events for return periods of 30, 50, and 100 years. It makes location-specific inundation depth and duration projections using hydrological, hydraulic, and urban storm models with geographic overlays. High resolution spatial analysis provides a roadmap for designing adaptation schemes to minimize the impacts of climate change. The modeling results show that de-silting of the main sewers would reduce vulnerable population estimates by at least 5 %.
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WWF: China Ecological Footprint Report 2012 Consumption, Production and Sustainable Development
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From the Executive Summary p. 3 : "We have only one planet and the time has come to transform our present lifestyle and consumption patterns in order to halt the degradation of the Earth’s natural capital, and to secure
ecosystem services as the foundation for economic and social development."
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A statistical procedure to determine recent climate change of extreme daily meteorological data as applied at two locations in Northwestern North America
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An iterative chi-square method is applied to determine recent climate change of extremes of daily minimum temperature at two locations between an 18- year recent period and a 36-year prior period. The method determines for each of two locations in northwestern North America, Bozeman, Montana, USA and Coldstream, British Columbia, Canada, which values of the extreme daily weather elements are most significantly different between the prior years and the recent years and gives a measure of the weekly significance of that difference. Determination was made of the average percent of each recent year date (plotted weekly) that was im- pacted by extreme weather due to climate change as well as the percentage change in the frequency of the number of extreme days for each period of contiguous significant weeks. During the recent period at both locations, most weeks experienced a greater number of days of extreme high minimum temperature and a fewer number of days of extreme low minimum temperature. The weekly percentage changes indicate that extreme high minimum temperatures at both Bozeman and Coldstream are increasing at the rate of about 10% per decade, with a close corresponding decrease of extreme low minimum temperatures. The major changes in climate were very similar at both locations, with greatest warming occurring during the late winter and early spring and during the late July to August period.
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A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: what do temperature trends portend?
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Abstract The physical science linking human-induced increases ingreenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., −17.8◦C (0◦F), 0◦C (32◦F), and 32.2◦C (90◦F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (≤ −17.8◦C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (≥32◦C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0◦C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana’s ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes.
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