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OSU Climate Change Webinar
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Exploring Snowfall in the United States.
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News & Events
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Events
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Our Changing Climate – Third National Assessment Released
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The Third National Assessment Release (NCA) report was released today. The report was written by 240 authors who worked in author teams reflecting their expertise, who also selected additional contributing authors, including several scientists and experts from USDA.
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News & Events
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Overview of FY 11-12 Funded Projects
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Describes the six projects currently funded by the Appalachian LCC through 2012. These include a Stream Classification System, Development of Hydrologic Foundation, Assessing Future Impacts of Energy Extraction, Understanding Land Use and Climate Change, Riparian Restoration Tool to Promote Climate Change Resilience, and Data Needs Assessment to Support Conservation Planning.
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Cooperative
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Past SC Meetings and Materials
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ISC Call for February 11, 2013
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Palaeodata-informed modelling of large carbon losses from recent burning of boreal forests
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Wildfires play a key role in the boreal forest carbon cycle(1,2), and models suggest that accelerated burning will increase boreal C emissions in the coming century (3). However, these predictions may be compromised because brief observational records provide limited constraints to model initial conditions (4). We confronted this limitation by using palaeoenvironmental data to drive simulations of long-term C dynamics in the Alaskan bo- real forest. Results show that fire was the dominant control on C cycling over the past millennium, with changes in fire frequency accounting for 84% of C stock variability. A recent rise in fire frequency inferred from the palaeorecord5 led to simulated C losses of 1.4 kg C m?2(12% of ecosystem C stocks) from 1950 to 2006. In stark contrast, a small net C sink of 0.3 kg C m?2 occurred if the past fire regime was assumed to be similar to the modern regime, as is common in models of C dynamics. Although boreal fire regimes are heterogeneous, recent trends6 and future projections (7) point to increasing fire activity in response to climate warming throughout the biome. Thus, predictions (8) that terrestrial C sinks of northern high latitudes will mitigate rising atmospheric CO2 may be over-optimistic.
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Resources
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Climate Science Documents
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Pedoecological Modeling to Guide Forest Restoration using Ecological Site Descriptions
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the u.s. department of agriculture (usda)-natural resources conservation service (nrcs) uses an ecological site description (esd) framework to help incorporate interactions between local soil, climate, flora, fauna, and humans into schema for land management decision-making. we demonstrate esd and digital soil mapping tools to (i) estimate potential o horizon carbon (c) stock accumulation from restoring alternative ecological states in high-elevation forests of the central appalachian Mountains in west Virginia (wV), usa, and (ii) map areas in alternative ecological states that can be targeted for restoration. this region was extensively disturbed by clear-cut harvests and related fires during the 1880s through 1930s. we combined spodic soil property maps, recently linked to historic red spruce–eastern hemlock (Picea rubens–Tsuga canadensis) forest communities, with current forest inventories to provide guidance for restoration to a historic reference state. this allowed mapping of alternative hardwood states within areas of the spodic shale uplands conifer forest (scF) ecological site, which is mapped along the regional conifer-hardwood transition of the central appalachian Mountains. Plots examined in these areas suggest that many of the spruce-hemlock dominated stands in wV converted to a hardwood state by historic disturbance have lost at least 10 cm of o horizon thickness, and possibly much more. Based on this 10 cm estimate, we calculate that at least 3.74 to 6.62 tg of c were lost from areas above 880 m elevation in wV due to historic disturbance of o horizons, and that much of these stocks and related ecosystem functions could potentially be restored within 100 yr under focused management, but more practical scenarios would likely require closer to 200 yr.
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Climate Science Documents
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Potter and Crane 2010_climate change_Appalachians_genetic-risk-assessment-system-description-120610.pdf
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LP Members
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Project Documents
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Literature
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Predicting a change in the order of spring phenology in temperate forests
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The rise in spring temperatures over the past half-century has led to advances in the phenology of many nontropical plants and animals. As species and populations differ in their phenological responses to temperature, an increase in temperatures has the potential to alter timing-dependent species interactions. One species-interaction that may be affected is the competition for light in deciduous forests, where early vernal species have a narrow window of opportunity for growth before late spring species cast shade. Here we consider the Marsham phenology time series of first leafing dates of thirteen tree species and flowering dates of one ground flora species, which spans two centuries. The exceptional length of this time series permits a rare comparison of the statistical support for parameter-rich regression and mechanistic thermal sensitivity phenology models. While mechanistic models perform best in the majority of cases, both they and the regression models provide remarkably consistent insights into the relative sensitivity of each species to forcing and chilling effects. All species are sensitive to spring forcing, but we also find that vernal and
northern European species are responsive to cold temperatures in the previous autumn. Whether this sensitivity reflects a chilling requirement or a delaying of dormancy remains to be tested. We then apply the models to projected future temperature data under a fossil fuel intensive emissions scenario and predict that while some species will advance substantially others will advance by less and may even be delayed due to a rise in autumn and winter temperatures. Considering the projected responses of all fourteen species, we anticipate a change in the order of spring events, which may lead to changes in competitive advantage for light with potential implications for the composition of temperate forests.
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Resources
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Climate Science Documents
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Presentation of Review of Species and Habitat Selection for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Meeting on 1/14/14
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On January 14, Lesley Sneddon of NatureServe presented this webinar to interested conservation and cooperative partners of the Appalachian LCC to present the process for the selection of the 50-75 species and 3-5 habitats proposed for assessment of climate change vulnerability. The selections were informed by the wealth of assessments already completed in all or part of the LCC region to date. The meeting generated good discussion on the process, species, habitats, and possible avenues for future research.
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Research
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Workspace
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Supporting Materials and Resources
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President Recognizes Role of Private Forests in Climate Action Plan
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We are writing to you, as members of the Forest‐Climate Working Group, to thank you for the central role that you have created for U.S. forests and forest products in your Climate Action Plan and the new natural resources policy proposals that you have announced this week.
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News & Events
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Primary Influences on Water Temperature for Inland Streams
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The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of the new lesson, "Primary Influences on Water Temperature for Inland Streams". The temperature of inland streams, rivers, and reservoirs affects aquatic wildlife, riparian vegetation, and infrastructure.
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