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THE COST OF INACTION: RECOGNISING THE VALUE AT RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE
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The asset management industry—and thus the wider community of investors of all sizes— is facing the prospect of significant losses from the effects of climate change. Assets can be directly damaged by floods, droughts and severe storms, but portfolios can also be harmed indirectly, through weaker growth and lower asset returns. Climate change is a long-term, probably irreversible problem beset by substantial uncertainty. Crucially, however, climate change is a problem of extreme risk: this means that the average losses to be expected are not the only source of concern; on the contrary, the outliers, the particularly extreme scenarios, may matter most of all.
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Human mining activity across the ages determines the genetic structure of modern brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) populations
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Humans have exploited the earth’s metal resources for thousands of years leaving behind a legacy of toxic metal contamination and poor water quality. The southwest of England provides a well-defined example, with a rich history of metal mining dating to the Bronze Age. Mine water washout continues to negatively impact water quality across the region where brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) populations exist in both metal-impacted and relatively clean rivers. We used micro- satellites to assess the genetic impact of mining practices on trout populations in this region. Our analyses demonstrated that metal-impacted trout populations have low genetic diversity and have experienced severe population declines. Metal-river trout populations are genetically distinct from clean-river populations, and also from one another, despite being geographically proximate. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we dated the origins of these genetic patterns to periods of intensive mining activity. The historical split of contemporary metal-impacted populations from clean-river fish dated to the Medieval period. Moreover, we observed two distinct genetic populations of trout within a single catchment and dated their divergence to the Industrial Revolution. Our investigation thus provides an evaluation of contemporary population genetics in showing how human-altered landscapes can change the genetic makeup of a species.
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Medieval warming initiated exceptionally large wildfire outbreaks in the Rocky Mountains
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Many of the largest wildfires in US history burned in recent decades, and climate change explains much of the increase in area burned. The frequency of extreme wildfire weather will increase with continued warming, but many uncertainties still exist about future fire regimes, including how the risk of large fires will persist as vegetation changes. Past fire-climate relationships provide an opportunity to constrain the related uncertainties, and reveal widespread burn- ing across large regions of western North America during past warm intervals. Whether such episodes also burned large portions of individual landscapes has been difficult to determine, however, because uncertainties with the ages of past fires and limited spatial resolution often prohibit specific estimates of past area burned. Accounting for these challenges in a subalpine landscape in Colorado, we estimated century-scale fire synchroneity across 12 lake- sediment charcoal records spanning the past 2,000 y. The percent- age of sites burned only deviated from the historic range of vari- ability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) between 1,200 and 850 y B.P., when temperatures were similar to recent decades. Between 1,130 and 1,030 y B.P., 83% (median estimate) of our sites burned when temperatures increased ∼0.5 °C relative to the preceding centuries. Lake-based fire rotation during the MCA decreased to an estimated 120 y, representing a 260% higher rate of burning than during the period of dendroecological sampling (360 to −60 y B.P.). Increased burning, however, did not persist throughout the MCA. Burning declined abruptly before temperatures cooled, indicating possible fuel limitations to continued burning.
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Duality in climate science
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Delivery of palatable 2 °C mitigation scenarios depends on speculative negative emissions or changing the past. Scientists must make their assumptions transparent and defensible, however politically uncomfortable the conclusions.
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How life shaped Earth
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Earth is much more complex than all the other solar system objects that we know. Thanks to its rich and diverse geology, our planet can offer habitats to a wide range of living species. Emerging insights suggest that this is not just a happy coincidence, but that life itself has in many ways helped to shape the planet. Michael Gross reports.
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Integration and scaling of UV-B radiation effects on plants: from DNA to leaf
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A process-based model integrating the effects of UV-B radiation through epidermis, cellular DNA, and its consequences to the leaf expansion was developed from key parameters in the published literature. Enhanced UV-B radiation- induced DNA damage significantly delayed cell division, resulting in significant reductions in leaf growth and development. Ambient UV-B radiation-induced DNA damage significantly reduced the leaf growth of species with high relative epidermal absorbance at longer wavelengths and average/low pyrimidine cyclob- utane dimers (CPD) photorepair rates. Leaf expansion was highly dependent on the number of CPD present in the DNA, as a result of UV-B radiation dose, quantitative and qualitative absorptive properties of epidermal pigments, and repair mechanisms. Formation of pyrimidine-pyrimidone (6-4) photoproducts (6-4PP) has no effect on the leaf expansion. Repair mechanisms could not solely prevent the UV-B radiation interference with the cell division. Avoidance or effective shielding by increased or modified qualitative epidermal absorptance was required. Sustained increased UV-B radiation levels are more detri-mental than short, high doses of UV-B radiation. The combination of low temperature and increased UV-B radiation was more significant in the level of UV-B radiation-induced damage than UV-B radiation alone. Slow-growing leaves were more affected by increased UV-B radiation than fast-growing leaves.
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Uncertainty in the response of transpiration to CO2 and implications for climate change
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While terrestrial precipitation is a societally highly relevant climate variable, there is little consensus among climate models about its projected 21st century changes. An important source of precipitable water over land is plant transpiration. Plants control transpiration by opening and closing their stomata. The sensitivity of this process to increasing CO2 concentrations is uncertain. To assess the impact of this uncertainty on future climate, we perform experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) for a range of model-imposed transpiration- sensitivities to CO2. Changing the sensitivity of transpiration to CO2 causes simulated terrestrial precipitation to change by −10% to +27% by 2100 under a high emission scenario. This study emphasises the importance of an improved assessment of the dynamics of environmental impact on vegetation to better predict future changes of the terrestrial hydrological and carbon cycles.
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Multi-year drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in Southeastern US forests
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Recent forest diebacks combined with threats of future drought focus attention on the extent to which tree death is caused by catastrophic events as opposed to chronic declines in health that accumulate over years. While recent attention has focused on large-scale diebacks, there is concern that increasing drought stress and chronic morbidity may have pervasive impacts on forest composition in many regions. Here we use long-term, whole-stand inventory data from Southeastern US forests to show that trees exposed to drought experience multi-year declines in growth prior to mortality. Following a severe, multi-year drought, 72% of trees that did not recover their pre-drought growth rates died within 10 years. This pattern was mediated by local moisture availability. As an index of morbidity prior to death, we calculated the difference in cumulative growth after drought relative to surviving conspecifics. The strength of drought-induced morbidity varied among species and was correlated with drought tolerance. These findings support the ability of trees to avoid death during drought events but indicate shifts that could occur over decades. Tree mortality following drought is predictable in these ecosystems based on growth declines, highlighting an opportunity to address multi-year drought-induced morbidity in models, experiments, and management decisions.
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Reform forest fire management: Agency incentives undermine policy effectiveness
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Globally, wildfire size, severity, and frequency have been increasing, as have related fatalities and taxpayer- funded firefighting costs (1). In most accessible forests, wildfire response prioritizes suppression because fires are easier and cheaper to contain when small (2). In the United States, for example, 98% of wildfires are suppressed before reaching 120 ha in size (3). But the 2% of wildfires that escape containment often burn under extreme weather conditions in fuel-loaded forests and account for 97% of fire-fighting costs and total area burned (3). Changing climate and decades of fuel accumulation make efforts to suppress every fire dangerous, expensive, and ill advised (4).
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Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States
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Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands’ contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency’s land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.
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