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Carbon Market Lessons and Global Policy Outlook
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Summary: Ongoing work on linking markets and mixing policies builds on successes and failures in pricing and trading carbon. Closing sentence, 1st paragraph: Are carbon markets seriously challenged or succeeding and on the rise?
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Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years
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During the Middle Miocene, when temperatures were ~3° to 6°C warmer and sea level 25 to 40 meters higher than present, pCO2 was similar to modern levels.
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Changes in Wind Pattern Alter Albatross Distribution and Life-History Traits
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Westerly winds in the Southern Ocean have increased in intensity and moved poleward. Using
long-term demographic and foraging records, we show that foraging range in wandering albatrosses
has shifted poleward in conjunction with these changes in wind pattern, while their rates of travel and
flight speeds have increased. Consequently, the duration of foraging trips has decreased, breeding
success has improved, and birds have increased in mass by more than 1 kilogram. These positive
consequences of climate change may be temporary if patterns of wind in the southern westerlies
follow predicted climate change scenarios. This study stresses the importance of foraging performance
as the key link between environmental changes and population processes.
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Defaunation in the Anthropocene
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We live amid a global wave of anthropogenically driven biodiversity loss: species
and population extirpations and, critically, declines in local species abundance.
Particularly, human impacts on animal biodiversity are an under-recognized form of
global environmental change. Among terrestrial vertebrates, 322 species have
become extinct since 1500, and populations of the remaining species show 25%
average decline in abundance. Invertebrate patterns are equally dire: 67% of
monitored populations show 45% mean abundance decline. Such animal declines
will cascade onto ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Much remains unknown
about this “Anthropocene defaunation”; these knowledge gaps hinder our capacity
to predict and limit defaunation impacts. Clearly, however, defaunation is both a
pervasive component of the planet’s sixth mass extinction and also a major driver of
global ecological change
25 JULY 2014 • VOL 345 ISSUE 6195
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Changes in Climatic Water Balance Drive Downhill Shifts in Plant Species’ Optimum Elevations
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Uphill shifts of species’ distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads
to widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts
are often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. By comparing the altitudinal
distributions of 64 plant species between the 1930s and the present day within California, we show that
climate changes have resulted in a significant downward shift in species’ optimum elevations. This
downhill shift is counter to what would be expected given 20th-century warming but is readily
explained by species’ niche tracking of regional changes in climatic water balance rather than
temperature. Similar downhill shifts can be expected to occur where future climate change scenarios
project increases in water availability that outpace evaporative demand.
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All Downhill From Here?
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Biologists say climate change may already be affecting high-mountain ecosystems around the world, where plants and animals adapted to cold, barren conditions now face higher temperatures and a surge of predators and competitors
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Ecosystem Service Markets 101: Supply and Demand for Nature
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Establishing markets for ecosystem services—the benefits that nature provides, such as clean air, water, and wildlife habitat—has gained traction in some circles as a way to finance the conservation of these public goods. Market influences on supply and demand work in tandem to encourageecosystem protection. Jeff Kline and Trista Patterson, scientists with the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Research Station, have identified several criteria needed for ecosystem service markets to achieve their potential. These include regulatory limits on environmental damage, ecosystem services that are amenable to trading, and manageable transaction costs related to administering market programs and the necessary measuring and monitoring of marketed resources. If these criteria are not met, other conservation methods such as conservation easements, landowner incentive programs for environmental enhancement or protection, or taxes on environmental damage may be more effective. Discussions about ecosystem services often focus on increasing supply— storing more carbon or delivering more water, for example. However, net pressures on ecosystems can also be reduced by addressing consumption. Many energy efficiencies can be achieved
by promoting awareness, informed choices, and behavior change. The PNW Research Station is examining
both supply and demand approaches to ecosystem protection by encouraging the development of ecosystem services markets and identifying ways to reduce its own environmental footprint.
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Adaptation: Planning for Climate Change and Its Effects on Federal Lands
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National forest managers are charged with tackling the effects of climate change on the natural resources
under their care. The Forest Service National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change and the Climate
Change Performance Scorecard require managers to make significant progress in addressing climate
change by 2015. To help land managers meet this challenge, Forest Service scientists conducted three case studies on national forests and adjacent national parks and documented a wide range of scientific issues and solutions. They summarized the scientific foundation for climate change adaptation and made the information accessible to land managers by creating a climate change adaptation guidebookand web portal. Case study teams discovered that collaboration among scientists and land managers is crucial to adaptation planning, as are management plans targeted to the particular ecosystem conditions and management priorities of each region. Many current management practices are consistent with climate change
adaptation goals. Because timely implementation is critical, strategies are in development at the national
level to speed the implementation of science-based climate change adaptation processes in national
forests throughout the country.
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DO CARBON OFFSETS WORK? THE ROLE OF FOREST MANAGEMENT IN GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION
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As forest carbon offset projects become more popular, professional foresters are providing their expertise to support them. But when several members of the Society of American Foresters questioned the science
and assumptions used to design the projects, the organization decided to convene a task force to examine whether these projects can provide the intended climate benefits.The authors emphasize the carbon-storage benefits of using wood products in place of nonrenewable, energy-intensive materials and using woodbased
energy instead of fossil fuels.
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Aeolian process effects on vegetation communities in an arid grassland ecosystem
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Many arid grassland communities are changing from grass dominance to shrub
dominance, but the mechanisms involved in this conversion process are not completely
understood. Aeolian processes likely contribute to this conversion from
grassland to shrubland. The purpose of this research is to provide information
regarding how vegetation changes occur in an arid grassland as a result of aeolian
sediment transport. The experimental design included three treatment blocks, each
with a 25 × 50 m area where all grasses, semi-shrubs, and perennial forbs were
hand removed, a 25 × 50 m control area with no manipulation of vegetation cover,
and two 10 × 25 m plots immediately downwind of the grass-removal and control
areas in the prevailing wind direction, 19◦ north of east, for measuring vegetation
cover. Aeolian sediment flux, soil nutrients, and soil seed bank were monitored on
each treatment area and downwind plot. Grass and shrub cover were measured on
each grass-removal, control, and downwind plot along continuous line transects as
well as on 5 × 10 m subplots within each downwind area over four years following
grass removal. On grass-removal areas, sediment flux increased significantly, soil
nutrients and seed bank were depleted, and Prosopis glandulosa shrub cover increased
compared to controls. Additionally, differential changes for grass and shrub
cover were observed for plots downwind of vegetation-removal and control areas.
Grass cover on plots downwind of vegetation-removal areas decreased over time
(2004–2007) despite above average rainfall throughout the period of observation,
while grass cover increased downwind of control areas; P. glandulosa cover increased
on plots downwind of vegetation-removal areas, while decreasing on plots downwind
of control areas. The relationships between vegetation changes and aeolian
sediment flux were significant and were best described by a logarithmic function,
with decreases in grass cover and increases in shrub cover occurring with small
increases in aeolian sediment flux
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