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Characterizing Fire-on-Fire interactions in three Large Wilderness areas
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The interaction of fires, where one fire burns into another recently burned area, is receiving increased attention from scientists and land managers wishing to describe the role of fire scars in affecting landscape pattern and future fire spread. Here, we quantify fire-on- fire interactions in terms of frequency, size, and time-since-previous fire (TSPF) in three large wilderness areas in Montana and Idaho, USA, from 1984 to present, using spatially consistent large fire perimeter data from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) dataset. The analysis is supplemented with less consistent fire perimeter data from a re- gional fire atlas in order to examine the potential role played by smaller fires in fire-on-fire interactions. We compare current rates of burning to existing estimates using the natural fire rotation (NFR) to determine whether recent fire activity falls within established historical ranges. We also compare actual fires to randomly located fires to establish whether the frequency and size of re-burns differ by chance. Finally, we systematically classify shared fire edges as fire-stopping or breached to quantify the effect of previous fires on subsequent fire spread. In total, more than half of the Frank Church, one-quarter of the Bob Marshall, and fifteen percent of the Selway-Bitterroot wilderness areas have burned since 1984. Area burned within each of the study areas yielded NFRs that are consistent with results derived from fire atlas and tree-ring research studies. The data show that re- burning occurs less frequently than chance in the Frank Church Wilderness Area, perhaps less frequently in the Bob Marshall Wilderness Area, and the same as chance in the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Area. In each of the study areas, the total amount of edge at which a fire met another fire was less than three percent of the total available perimeter. However, ~80% of the total edge encountered was breached, resulting in fire spreading onto previously burned landscapes and re-burning at least 40 ha. Year-to-year variability in re-burn occurrence was high, and the size of re-burns was typically small, implying a general resistance to re-burning, but the preponderance of small patches resulting from fire interactions has perhaps significant ecological implications. There was a systematic decrease in the frequency of small to medium sized re-burns (40 ha to 405 ha) as time be- tween fires increased in all three wilderness areas. The frequency of large re-burns in- creased with time in the Frank Church wilderness area, but this trend was not apparent in the other two wilderness areas. Overall, fire-on-fire interactions show a high degree of complexity, making direct comparisons between the three wilderness areas difficult, but the evidence suggests that large wildfires generally inhibit the spread of subsequent fires, while small fires appear to have little impact on the spread of other fires.
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Citizen Involvement in the U.S. Endangered Species Act
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Data on listed species refute critiques of citizen involvement in the U.S. Endangered Species Act.
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Climate Science Documents
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Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate
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It has been proposed that changes in global climate have been responsible for episodes of widespread violence and even the collapse of civilizations 1,2. Yet previous studies have not shown that violence can be attributed to the global climate, only that random weather events might be correlated with conflict in some cases 3–7. Here we directly associate planetary-scale climate changes with global patterns of civil conflict by examining the dominant inter- annual mode of the modern climate 8–10, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Historians have argued that ENSO may have driven global patterns of civil conflict in the distant past11–13, a hypothesis that we extend to the modern era and test quantitatively. Using data from 1950 to 2004, we show that the probability of new civil conflicts arising throughout the tropics doubles during El Nino years relative to La Nina years. This result, which indicates that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, is the first demonstration that the stability of modern societies relates strongly to the global climate.
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Clark, J.S. et al. Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: climate and competition tracking of demographic rates
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Author's Abstract Forest responses to climate change will depend on demographic impacts in the context of competition. Current models used to predict species responses, termed climate envelope models (CEMs), are controversial, because (i) calibration and prediction are based on correlations in space (CIS) between species abundance and climate, rather than responses to climate change over time (COT), and (ii) they omit competition. To determine the relative importance of COT, CIS, and competition for light, we applied a longitudinal analysis of 27 000 individual trees over 6–18 years subjected to experimental and natural variation in risk factors. Sensitivities and climate and resource tracking identify which species are vulnerable to these risk factors and in what ways. Results show that responses to COT differ from those predicted based on CIS. The most important impact is the effect of spring temperature on fecundity, rather than any input variable on growth or survival. Of secondary importance is growing season moisture. Species in the genera Pinus, Ulmus, Magnolia, and Fagus are particularly vulnerable to climate variation. However, the effect of competition on growth and mortality risk exceeds the effects of climate variation in space or time for most species. Because sensitivities to COT and competition are larger than CIS, current models miss the most important effects. By directly comparing sensitivity to climate in time and space, together with competition, the approach identifies which species are sensitive to climate change and why, including the heretofore overlooked impact on fecundity.
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Classification of Climate Change-Induced Stresses on Biological Diversity
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Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate-change-induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate-change-related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate-change-induced stresses.
Keywords: adaptation, conservation, strategies,adaptive management,climatechange,conservation planning, conservation targets, hierarchical framework, threats to biological diversity
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Climate Adaptation Fund Announce Latest round of Grantmaking
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Read the 2016 Request for Proposals, review the Applicant Guidance Document and submit a completed WCS Pre-proposal Application using our online application form no later than 5:00 PM EDT on Friday, April 8, 2016.
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Section 1: Biodiversity and Conservation Challenges Across the Appalachian Region
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Climate Change
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2013 SN Portfolio: Mission to create an effective adaptation strategy for climate change based on the best available science.
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2013 Science Needs Portfolio
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Climate Change 101: The Foundational Science
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Dr. Keith Dixon (NOAA) is an award winning science communicator with more than 30 years of experience as a research meteorologist and climate modeler. In the inaugural video of the climate seminar series, Dr. Dixon discusses what is known about our planet's changing climate, how that knowledge is developed, and how certain we are that humans are responsible for the change we are observing.
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Climate Change Adaptation - TNC Florida
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We are using the Adaptation Workbook to consider climate change adaptation actions for four different preserves in Florida.
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