Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Education for a Sustainable Future
Sustainability is being integrated into higher-education institutions’ mission and planning, curricula, research, student life, and operations.
Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment
Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The theoretical background for these indicators is rich, but real-world tests are rare, especially for whole ecosystems. We tested the hypothesis that these statistics would be early warning signals for an experimentally induced regime shift in an aquatic food web. We gradually added top predators to a lake over 3 years to destabilize its food web. An adjacent lake was monitored simultaneously as a reference ecosystem. Warning signals of a regime shift were evident in the manipulated lake during reorganization of the food web more than a year before the food web transition was complete, corroborating theory for leading indicators of ecological regime shifts. Critical slowing down
Contemporary ocean warming and freshwater conditions are related to later sea age at maturity in Atlantic salmon spawning in Norwegian rivers
Atlantic salmon populations are reported to be declining throughout its range, raising major management concerns. Variation in adult fish abundance may be due to variation in survival, growth, and timing of life history decisions. Given the complex life history, utilizing highly divergent habitats, the reasons for declines may be multiple and difficult to disentangle. Using recreational angling data of two sea age groups, one-sea-winter (1SW) and two-sea-winter (2SW) fish originated from the same smolt year class, we show that sea age at maturity of the returns has increased in 59 Norwegian rivers over the cohorts 1991– 2005. By means of linear mixed-effects models we found that the proportion of 1SW fish spawning in Norway has decreased concomitant with the increasing sea surface temperature experienced by the fish in autumn during their first year at sea. Furthermore, the decrease in the proportion of 1SW fish was influenced by freshwater conditions as measured by water discharge during summer months 1 year ahead of seaward migration. These results suggest that part of the variability in age at maturity can be explained by the large-scale changes occurring in the north-eastern Atlantic pelagic food web affecting postsmolt growth, and by differences in river conditions influencing presmolt growth rate and later upstream migration.
A Measurable Planetary Boundary for the Biosphere
Terrestrial net primary (plant) production provides a measurable boundary for human consumption of Earth’s biological resources.
Approaching the Limits: A book review in Science
Excerpts: "In Harvesting the Biosphere, Vaclav Smil traces the historical development of human consumption of biological resources and evaluates whether we could be approaching important global limits. Smil (an economist at the University of Manitoba) has written several books on global energy and other resource issues; here, he focuses on human consumption of the plant and animal life and whether current trends are sustainable." And "Full of recent references and statistics, Harvesting the Biosphere adds to the growing chorus of warnings about the current trajectory of human activity on a finite planet, of which climate change is only one dimension. One can quibble with some assumptions or tweak Smil’s calculations, but the bottom line will not change, only the time it may take humanity to reach a crisis point. Systems ecology teaches that the human population and consumption trajectories need a stronger feedback control than currently exists. Either we are smart enough to craft that feedback mechanism ourselves, or the Earth system will ultimately provide it."
Ecosystem Disturbance, Carbon, and Climate
Models of climate change effects should incorporate land-use changes and episodic disturbances such as fires and insect epidemics.
Extreme climatic event drives range contraction of a habitat-forming species
Species distributions have shifted in response to global warming in all major ecosystems on the Earth. Despite cogent evidence for these changes, the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and currently imply gradual shifts. Yet there is an increasing appreciation of the role of discrete events in driving ecological change. We show how a marine heat wave (HW) eliminated a prominent habitat-forming seaweed, Scytothalia dorycarpa, at its warm distribution limit, causing a range contraction of approximately 100km (approx. 5% of its global distribution). Seawater temperatures during the HW exceeded the seaweed’s physiological threshold and caused extirpation of marginal populations, which are unlikely to recover owing to life-history traits and oceanographic processes. Scytothalia dorycarpa is an important canopy-forming seaweed in temperate Australia, and loss of the species at its range edge has caused structural changes at the community level and is likely to have ecosystem-level implications. We show that extreme warming events, which are increasing in magnitude and frequency, can force step-wise changes in species distributions in marine ecosystems. As such, return times of these events have major implications for projections of species distributions and ecosystem structure, which have typically been based on gradual warming trends.
Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations
Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.
A holistic approach to climate targets
An assessment of allowable carbon emissions that factors in multiple climate targets finds smaller permissible emission budgets than those inferred from studies that focus on temperature change alone.
Carbon Mitigation by Biofuels or by Saving and Restoring Forests?
The carbon sequestered by restoring forests is greater than the emissions avoided by the use of the liquid biofuels.
Accounting for Environmental Assets
A country can cut down its forests, erode its soils, pollute its aquifers and hunt its wildlife and fisheries to extinction, but its measured income is not affected as these assets disappear. Impoverishment is taken for progress
Climate Change Hot Spots Mapped Across the United States
Taking some of the fuzziness out of climate models is revealing the uneven U.S. impact of future global warming; the most severely affected region may be emerging already
Are There Rebound Effects from Energy Efficiency? – An Analysis of Empirical Data, Internal Consistency, and Solutions
Of the rigorously-framed hypotheses claiming that large negative rebounds exist, we measure them against the data, which refute the hypotheses. Rebounds at the end-use level are small and decrease over time. Rebounds at the economy-wide level are trivially small, and might well be a net positive. Jevons himself indicated that the ultimate solution requires a lower standard of living
Climate Change and Existing Law: A Survey of Legal Issues Past, Present, and Future
Summary: This report surveys existing law for legal issues that have arisen, or may arise in the future, on account of climate change and government responses thereto. At the threshold of many climate-change-related lawsuits are two barriers—whether the plaintiff has standing to sue and whether the claim being made presents a political question. Both barriers have forced courts to apply amorphous standards in a new and complex context. Efforts to mitigate climate change—that is, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions—have spawned a host of legal issues. The Supreme Court resolved a big one in 2007: the Clean Air Act (CAA), it said, authorizes EPA to regulate GHG emissions. EPA’s subsequent efforts to carry out that authority have been sustained by the D.C. Circuit. Another issue is whether EPA’s “endangerment finding” for GHG emissions from new motor vehicles will compel EPA to move against GHG emissions from other sources, and, if EPA does, whether the CAA authorizes cap- and-trade programs. Still other mitigation issues are (1) the role of the Endangered Species Act in addressing climate change; (2) how climate change must be considered under the National Environmental Policy Act; (3) liability and other questions raised by carbon capture and sequestration; (4) constitutional constraints on land use regulation and state actions to control GHG emissions; and (5) whether the public trust doctrine applies to the atmosphere. Liability for harms allegedly caused by climate change has raised another crop of legal issues. The Supreme Court decision that the CAA bars federal judges from imposing their own limits on GHG emissions from power plants has led observers to ask: Can plaintiffs alleging climate change harms still seek monetary damages, and are state law claims still allowed? The two rulings so far say no to the former, but split on the latter. Questions of insurance policy coverage are also likely to be litigated. Finally, the applicability of international law principles to climate change has yet to be resolved.Water shortages thought to be induced by climate change likely will lead to litigation over the nature of water rights. Shortages have already prompted several lawsuits over whether cutbacks in water delivered from federal projects effect Fifth Amendment takings or breaches of contract. Sea level rise and extreme precipitation linked to climate change raise questions as to (1) the effect of sea level rise on the beachfront owner’s property line; (2) whether public beach access easements migrate with the landward movement of beaches; (3) design and operation of federal levees; and (4) government failure to take preventive measures against climate change harms. Other adaptation responses to climate change raising legal issues, often property rights related, are beach armoring (seawalls, bulkheads, etc.), beach renourishment, and “retreat” measures. Retreat measures seek to move existing development away from areas likely to be affected by floods and sea level rise, and to discourage new development there. Natural disasters to which climate change contributes may prompt questions as to whether response actions taken in an emergency are subject to relaxed requirements and, similarly, as to the rebuilding of structures destroyed by such disasters just as they were before. Finally, immigration and refugee law appear not to cover persons forced to relocate because of climate change impacts such as drought or sea level rise.
Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?
Environmental problems have contributed to numerous collapses of civilizations in the past. ... But today, for the first time, humanity’s global civilization—the worldwide,increasingly interconnected, highly technological society in which we all are to one degree or another, embedded—is threatened with collapse by an array of environmental problems. Humankind finds itself engaged in what Prince Charles described as ‘an act of suicide on a grand scale’ [4], facing what the UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor John Beddington called a ‘perfect storm’ of environmental problems [5]. The most serious of these problems show signsof rapidly escalating severity, especially climate disruption.
Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on Stream Health
Estimation of stream health involves the analysis of changes in aquatic species, riparian vegetation, microinvertebrates, and channel degradation due to hydrologic changes occurring from anthropogenic activities. In this study, we quantified stream health changes arising from urbanization and climate change using a combination of the widely accepted Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) and Dundee Hydrologic Regime Assessment Method (DHRAM) on a rapidly urbanized watershed in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area in Texas. Historical flow data were split into pre-alteration and post-alteration periods. The influence of climate change on stream health was analyzed by dividing the precipitation data into three groups of dry, average, and wet conditions based on recorded annual precipitation. Hydrologic indicators were evaluated for all three of the climate scenarios to estimate the stream health changes brought about by climate change. The effect of urbanization on stream health was analyzed for a specific subwatershed where urbanization occurred dramatically but no stream flow data were available using the widely used watershed-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results of this study identify negative impacts to stream health with increasing urbanization and indicate that dry weather has more impact on stream health than wet weather. The IHA-DHRAM approach and SWAT model prove to be useful tools to estimate stream health at the watershed scale.
Effect of habitat area and isolation on fragmented animal populations
Habitat destruction has driven many once-contiguous animal populations into remnant patches of varying size and isolation. The underlying framework for the conservation of fragmented popu- lations is founded on the principles of island biogeography, wherein the probability of species occurrence in habitat patches varies as a function of patch size and isolation. Despite decades of research, the general importance of patch area and isolation as predictors of species occupancy in fragmented terrestrial systems remains unknown because of a lack of quantitative synthesis. Here, we compile occupancy data from 1,015 bird, mammal, reptile, amphibian, and invertebrate population networks on 6 continents and show that patch area and isolation are surprisingly poor predictors of occupancy for most species. We examine factors such as improper scaling and biases in species representation as expla- nations and find that the type of land cover separating patches most strongly affects the sensitivity of species to patch area and isolation. Our results indicate that patch area and isolation are indeed important factors affecting the occupancy of many species, but properties of the intervening matrix should not be ignored. Improving matrix quality may lead to higher conservation returns than manipulating the size and configuration of remnant patches for many of the species that persist in the aftermath of habitat destruction. incidence function island biogeography logistic regression metaanalysis occupancy
Adapting to flood risk under climate change
Flooding is the most common natural hazard and third most damaging globally after storms and earthquakes. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase flood risk through more frequent heavy precipitation, increased catchment wetness and sea level rise. This paper reviews steps being taken by actors at international, national, regional and community levels to adapt to flood risk from tidal, fluvial, surface and groundwater sources. We refer to existing inventories, national and sectoral adaptation plans, flood inqui- ries, building and planning codes, city plans, research literature and international policy reviews. We dis- tinguish between the enabling environment for adaptation and specific implementing measures to manage flood risk. Enabling includes routine monitoring, flood forecasting, data exchange, institutional reform, bridging organizations, contingency planning for disasters, insurance and legal incentives to reduce vulner- ability. All such activities are ‘low regret’ in that they yield benefits regardless of the climate scenario but are not cost-free. Implementing includes climate safety factors for new build, upgrading resistance and resilience of existing infrastructure, modifying operating rules, development control, flood forecasting, temporary and permanent retreat from hazardous areas, periodic review and adaptive management. We identify evidence of both types of adaptation following the catastrophic 2010/11 flooding in Victoria, Australia. However, signif- icant challenges remain for managing transboundary flood risk (at all scales), protecting existing property at risk from flooding, and ensuring equitable outcomes in terms of risk reduction for all. Adaptive management also raises questions about the wider preparedness of society to systematically monitor and respond to evol- ving flood risks and vulnerabilities. Keywords adaptation, climate change, flood, natural hazards, risk, Victoria, vulnerability
Extreme contagion in global habitat clearance
Habitat clearance remains the major cause of biodiversity loss, with consequences for ecosystem services and for people. In response to this, many global conservation schemes direct funds to regions with high rates of recent habitat destruction, though some also emphasize the conservation of remaining large tracts of intact habitat. If the pattern of habitat clearance is highly contagious, the latter approach will help prevent destructive processes gaining a foothold in areas of contiguous intact habitat. Here, we test the strength of spatial contagion in the pattern of habitat clearance. Using a global dataset of land-cover change at 50 50 km resolution, we discover that intact habitat areas in grid cells are refractory to clearance only when all neighbouring cells are also intact. The likelihood of loss increases dramatically as soon as habitat is cleared in just one neighbouring cell, and remains high thereafter. This effect is consistent for forests and grassland, across biogeographic realms and over centuries, constituting a coherent global pattern. Our results show that landscapes become vulnerable to wholesale clearance as soon as threatening processes begin to penetrate, so actions to prevent any incursions into large, intact blocks of natural habitat are key to their long-term persistence. Keywords: habitat loss; global change biology; conservation; wilderness
Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming
Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species’ responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space- limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the impor- tance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identify- ing processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understand- ing of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns.
