Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Stream Temperature Data and Modeling Meeting Notes
NALCC Aquatic Technical Team Meeting, 2012
Forecasting changes in stream flow, temperature, and salmonid populations in Eastern U.S. as a result of climate change
Presentation by Ben Letcher. One of the slides near the end is entitled: Papers where he lists many relevant publications
Predicting Brook Trout Occurrence in Stream Reaches throughout their Native Range in the Eastern United States
Abstract The Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis is an important species of conservation concern in the eastern USA. We developed a model to predict Brook Trout population status within individual stream reaches throughout the species’ native range in the eastern USA. We utilized hierarchical logistic regression with Bayesian estimation to predict Brook Trout occurrence probability, and we allowed slopes and intercepts to vary among ecological drainage units (EDUs). Model performance was similar for 7,327 training samples and 1,832 validation samples based on the area under the receiver operating curve (»0.78) and Cohen’s kappa statistic (0.44). Predicted water temperature had a strong negative effect on Brook Trout occurrence probability at the stream reach scale and was also negatively associated with the EDU average probability of Brook Trout occurrence (i.e., EDU-specific intercepts). The effect of soil permeability was positive but decreased as EDU mean soil permeability increased. Brook Trout were less likely to occur in stream reaches surrounded by agricultural or developed land cover, and an interaction suggested that agricultural land cover also resulted in an increased sensitivity to water temperature. Our model provides a further understanding of how Brook Trout are shaped by habitat characteristics in the region and yields maps of stream-reach-scale predictions, which together can be used to support ongoing conservation and management efforts. These decision support tools can be used to identify the extent of potentially suitable habitat, estimate historic habitat losses, and prioritize conservation efforts by selecting suitable stream reaches for a given action. Future work could extend the model to account for additional landscape or habitat characteristics, include biotic interactions, or estimate potential Brook Trout responses to climate and land use changes.
A regional neural network ensemble for predicting mean daily river water temperature
Abstract: Water temperature is a fundamental property of river habitat and often a key aspect of river resource management, but measurements to characterize thermal regimes are not available for most streams and rivers. As such, we developed an artificial neural network (ANN) ensemble model to predict mean daily water temperature in 197,402 individual stream reaches during the warm season (May–October) throughout the native range of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern U.S. We compared four models with different groups of predictors to determine how well water temperature could be predicted by climatic, landform, and land cover attributes, and used the median prediction from an ensemble of 100 ANNs as our final prediction for each model. The final model included air temperature, landform attributes and forested land cover and predicted mean daily water temperatures with moderate accuracy as determined by root mean squared error (RMSE) at 886 training sites with data from 1980 to 2009 (RMSE = 1.91 C). Based on validation at 96 sites (RMSE = 1.82) and separately for data from 2010 (RMSE = 1.93), a year with relatively warmer conditions, the model was able to generalize to new stream reaches and years. The most important predictors were mean daily air temperature, prior 7 day mean air temperature, and network catchment area according to sensitivity analyses. Forest land cover at both riparian and catchment extents had relatively weak but clear negative effects. Predicted daily water temperature averaged for the month of July matched expected spatial trends with cooler temperatures in headwaters and at higher elevations and latitudes. Our ANN ensemble is unique in predicting daily temperatures throughout a large region, while other regional efforts have predicted at relatively coarse time steps. The model may prove a useful tool for predicting water temperatures in sampled and unsampled rivers under current conditions and future projections of climate and land use changes, thereby providing information that is valuable to management of river ecosystems and biota such as brook trout.
Spatial and Temporal Dynamics in Brook Trout Density: Implications for Population Monitoring
T.Wagner et al., Abstract Many potential stressors to aquatic environments operate over large spatial scales, prompting the need to assess and monitor both site-specific and regional dynamics of fish populations. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability in density and capture probability of age-1 and older Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis from three-pass removal data collected at 291 sites over a 37-year time period (1975–2011) in Pennsylvania streams. There was high between-year variability in density, with annual posterior means ranging from 2.1 to 10.2 fish/100 m2 ; however, there was no significant long-term linear trend. Brook Trout density was positively correlated with elevation and negatively correlated with percent developed land use in the network catchment. Probability of capture did not vary substantially across sites or years but was negatively correlated with mean stream width. Because of the low spatiotemporal variation in capture probability and a strong correlation between first-pass CPUE (catch/min) and three-pass removal density estimates, the use of an abundance index based on first-pass CPUE could represent a cost-effective alternative to conducting multiple-pass removal sampling for some Brook Trout monitoring and assessment objectives. Single-pass indices may be particularly relevant for monitoring objectives that do not require precise site-specific estimates, such as regional monitoring programs that are designed to detect long-term linear trends in density.
Conservation Strategy for Imperiled Aquatic Species in the UTRB
The Strategy provides guidance to Field Offices in reevaluating current ("status quo") conservation approaches in order to deliver the most cost effective approach toward the conservation and management of imperiled freshwater fish and mussel species in the Upper Tennessee River Basin.
Presentation: Review of Restoration and How to Combine Terrestrial and Aquatic Designs
Review restoration and management products; Review recommendations for portraying final combined aquatic and terrestrial core-connection design
Document: January Core Team Meeting Notes/Summary
Notes and summary of presentations and discussions at the January Core Team meeting.
10 Key Decisions
10 major decisions made by the Core Team to date.
Hotel List: Hadley MA area
List of Hotels near FWS Regional Office
Hotel List: Hadley MA area
List of Hotels near FWS Regional Office
State Stream Temperature Compilation
PPT slides provided by Jana Stewart. "Water Temperature Monitoring Efforts by Individual Agencies"
NorEaST - intro presentation
Intro PPT presentation (includes introduction to meeting (purpose, objectives, flow) and intro to NorEaST
NorEaST - draft agenda
Meeting Objectives: • Provide overview of stream temperature monitoring protocols and data management • Introduce and demonstrate the NorEaST Stream Temperature Web Portal • Conduct User testing of the NorEaST Web Portal and gain feedback • Demonstrate ways to automate data analysis and quality assurance of data • Demonstrate and discuss applications of continuous stream temperature data • Discuss leveraging NorEaST web portal with other efforts • Discuss moving NorEaST into the future (development needs, funding mechanisms/models, other site types, expanded geography, etc.)
NorEaST - invitation
NorEaST – Stream Temperature Web Portal Demonstration and User Testing. USGS Wisconsin Water Science Center, Middleton, WI, December 9th-10th, 2014.
Stream Temperature Modeler Questionnaire (draft)
Prepared by Jana Stewart for review and discussion: planning call Feb 12th
NorEaST - agenda
Meeting Objectives: • Provide overview of stream temperature monitoring protocols and data management • Introduce and demonstrate the NorEaST Stream Temperature Web Portal • Conduct User testing of the NorEaST Web Portal and gain feedback • Demonstrate ways to automate data analysis and quality assurance of data • Demonstrate and discuss applications of continuous stream temperature data • Discuss leveraging NorEaST web portal with other efforts • Discuss moving NorEaST into the future (development needs, funding mechanisms/models, other site types, expanded geography, etc.)
