Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Maximizing return on conservation investment in the conterminous USA
Efficient conservation planning requires knowledge about conservation targets, threats to those targets, costs of conservation and the marginal return to additional conservation efforts. Systematic conservation planning typically only takes a small piece of this complex puzzle into account. Here, we use a return-on- investment (ROI) approach to prioritise lands for conservation at the county level in the conterminous USA. Our approach accounts for species richness, county area, the proportion of species’ ranges already protected, the threat of land conversion and land costs. Areas selected by a complementarity-based greedy heuristic using our full ROI approach provided greater averted species losses per dollar spent compared with areas selected by heuristics accounting for richness alone or richness and cost, and avoided acquiring lands not threatened with conversion. In contrast to traditional prioritisation approaches, our results high- light conservation bargains, opportunities to avert the threat of development and places where conservation efforts are currently lacking. Keywords Benefit cost ratio, conservation planning, economic cost, habitat protection, heuristic, land prices, reserve selection, resource allocation.
Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity
Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub- continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst- case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth. Keywords Biodiversity, climate change, species extinctions.
Interactions and Linkages among Ecosystems during Landscape Evolution
We synthesize our findings of studies in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, southeastern Alaska, to elucidate interactions and linkages among terrestrial, lake, stream, and marine intertidal ecosystems as the landscape evolves following ice recession. Development in each ecosystem is initially dominated by physical processes. Over time, biotic control becomes increasingly important, although the extent of biotic control varies among ecosystems. The changes occurring in the four ecosystems are linked by landscape processes, with the nature and strength of these linkages changing through time. Change in one ecosystem has a major influence on the nature and direction of change in other ecosystems. Soil development and woody biomass accumulation on land provide an inertia that is unmatched in stream, lake, or intertidal systems. It is important that researchers and managers understand this science of change, at different spatial and temporal scales, in order to predict future states of ecological systems. The dynamics of change that we document at Glacier Bay during primary succession have important implications for managing the system with respect to anthropogenic change. Keywords: landscape, development, ecosystems, succession, linkages
The cost of policy simplification in conservation incentive programs
Incentive payments to private landowners provide a common strategy to conserve biodiversity and enhance the supply of goods and services from ecosystems. To deliver cost-effective improvements in biodiversity, payment schemes must trade-off inefficiencies that result from over-simplified policies with the administrative burden of implementing more complex incentive designs. We examine the effectiveness of different payment schemes using field parameterized, ecological economic models of extensive grazing farms. We focus on profit maximising farm management plans and use bird species as a policy-relevant indicator of biodiversity. Common policy simplifications result in a 49–100% loss in biodiversity benefits depending on the conservation target chosen. Failure to differentiate prices for conservation improvements in space is particularly problematic. Additional implementation costs that accompany more complicated policies are worth bearing even when these constitute a substantial proportion (70% or more) of the payments that would otherwise have been given to farmers. Keywords Agriculture, agri-environment scheme, biodiversity, cost-effectiveness, ecological economics, grazing, incentive
Functional response of U.S. grasslands to the early 21st-century drought
Grasslands across the United States play a key role in regional livelihood and national food security. Yet, it is still unclear how this important resource will respond to the prolonged warm droughts and more intense rainfall events predicted with climate change. The early 21st-century drought in the southwestern United States resulted in hydroclimatic conditions that are similar to those expected with future climate change. We investigated the impact of the early 21st-century drought on aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of six desert and plains grasslands dominated by C4 (warm season) grasses in terms of significant deviations between observed and expected ANPP. In desert grasslands, drought-induced grass mortality led to shifts in the functional response to annual total precipitation (PT), and in some cases, new species assemblages occurred that included invasive species. In contrast, the ANPP in plains grasslands exhibited a strong linear function of the current-year PT and the previous-year ANPP, despite prolonged warm drought. We used these results to disentangle the impacts of interannual total precipitation, intra-annual precipitation patterns, and grassland abundance on ANPP, and thus generalize the functional response of C4 grasslands to predicted climate change. This will allow managers to plan for predictable shifts in resources associated with climate change related to fire risk, loss of forage, and ecosystem services. Key words: climate change; desert; extreme events; grassland production; invasive species; plains; precipitation variability; resilience; warm drought.
Two Modes of North American Drought from Instrumental and Paleoclimatic Data*
Droughts, which occur as a part of natural climate variability, are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity with global climate change. An improved understanding of droughts and their association with atmospheric circulation will add to the knowledge about the controls on drought, and the ways in which changes in climate may impact droughts. In this study, 1) major drought patterns across the United States have been defined, 2) the robustness of these patterns over time using tree-ring-based drought reconstructions have been evaluated, and 3) the drought patterns with respect to global atmospheric pressure patterns have been assessed. From this simple assessment, it is suggested that there are two major drought patterns across North America, which together account for about 30% of the total variance in drought patterns—one resembles the classic ENSO teleconnection, and the other displays an east–west drought dipole. The same two patterns are evident in the instrumental data and the reconstructed drought data for two different periods, 1404–2003 and 900–1350. The 500-mb circulation patterns associated with the two drought patterns suggest that the controls on drought may come from both Northern Hemisphere and tropical sources. The two drought patterns, and presumably their associated circulation patterns, vary in strength over time, indicating the combined effects of the two patterns on droughts over the past millennium.
Rapid evolution of flowering time by an annual plant in response to a climate fluctuation
Ongoing climate change has affected the ecological dynamics of many species and is expected to impose natural selection on ecologically important traits. Droughts and other anticipated changes in precipitation may be particularly potent selective fac- tors, especially in arid regions. Here we demonstrate the evolutionary response of an annual plant, Brassica rapa, to a recent climate fluctuation resulting in a multiyear drought. Ancestral (predrought) genotypes were recovered from stored seed and raised under a set of common environments with descendant (postdrought) genotypes and with ancestordescendant hybrids. As predicted, the abbreviated growing seasons caused by drought led to the evolution of earlier onset of flowering. Descendants bloomed earlier than ancestors, advancing first flowering by 1.9 days in one study population and 8.6 days in another. The inter- mediate flowering time of ancestordescendant hybrids supports an additive genetic basis for divergence. Experiments confirmed that summer drought selected for early flowering, that flowering time was heritable, and that selection intensities in the field were more than sufficient to account for the observed evolutionary change. Natural selection for drought escape thus appears to have caused adaptive evolution in just a few generations. A systematic effort to collect and store propagules from suitable species would provide biologists with materials to detect and elucidate the genetic basis of further evolutionary shifts driven by climate change. contemporary evolution global climate change life history theory local adaptation plant phenology
Limits to adaptation
An actor-centered, risk-based approach to defining limits to social adaptation provides a useful analytic framing for identifying and anticipating these limits and informing debates over society’s responses to climate change.
What is the future of conservation?
In recent years, some conservation biologists and con- servation organizations have sought to refocus the field of conservation biology by de-emphasizing the goal of protecting nature for its own sake in favor of protecting the environment for its benefits to humans. This ‘new conservation science’ (NCS) has inspired debate among academics and conservationists and motivated funda- mental changes in the world’s largest conservation groups. Despite claims that NCS approaches are sup- ported by biological and social science, NCS has limited support from either. Rather, the shift in motivations and goals associated with NCS appear to arise largely from a belief system holding that the needs and wants of humans should be prioritized over any intrinsic or inherent rights and values of nature.
TOP PREDATORS AS CONSERVATION TOOLS
We review the ecological rationale behind the potential compatibility between top predators and biodiversity conservation, and examine their effectiveness as surrogate species. Evidence suggests that top predators promote species richness or are spatio-temporally associated with it for six causative or noncausative reasons: resource facilitation, trophic cascades, dependence on ecosystem productivity, sensitivity to dysfunctions, selection of heterogeneous sites and links to multiple ecosystem components. Therefore, predator-centered conservation may deliver certain biodiversity goals. To this aim, predators have been employed in conservation as keystone, umbrella, sentinel, flagship, and indicator species. However, quantitative tests of their surrogate-efficacy have been astonishingly few. Evidence suggests they may function as structuring agents and biodiversity indicators in some ecosystems but not others, and that they perform poorly as umbrella species; more consensus exists for their efficacy as sentinel and flagship species. Conservation biologists need to use apex predators more cautiously, as part of wider, context- dependent mixed strategies.
Negative density-dependent dispersal in the American black bear (Ursus americanus) revealed by noninvasive sampling and genotyping
Although the dispersal of animals is influenced by a variety of factors, few studies have used a condition-dependent approach to assess it. The mechanisms underlying dispersal are thus poorly known in many species, especially in large mammals. We used 10 microsatellite loci to examine population density effects on sex-specific dispersal behavior in the American black bear, Ursus americanus. We tested whether dispersal increases with population density in both sexes. Fine-scale genetic struc- ture was investigated in each of four sampling areas using Mantel tests and spatial autocorrelation analyses. Our results revealed male-biased dispersal pattern in low- density areas. As population density increased, females appeared to exhibit philopa- try at smaller scales. Fine-scale genetic structure for males at higher densities may indicate reduced dispersal distances and delayed dispersal by subadults.
Public land, timber harvests, and climate mitigation: Quantifying carbon sequestration potential on U.S. public timberlands
Scientists and policy makers have long recognized the role that forests can play in countering the atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2), a greenhouse gas (GHG). In the United States, terrestrial carbon sequestration in private and public forests offsets approximately 11% of all GHG emissions from all sectors of the economy on an annual basis. Although much of the attention on forest carbon sequestration strategy in the United States has been on the role of private lands, public forests in the United States represent approximately 20% of the U.S. timberland area and also hold a significantly large share (30%) of the U.S. timber volume. With such a large standing timber inventory, these forested lands have considerable impact on the U.S. forest carbon balance. To help decision makers understand the carbon implications of potential changes in public timberland management, we compared a baseline timber harvest scenario with two alternative harvest scenarios and estimated annual carbon stock changes associated with each. Our analysis found that a ‘‘no timber harvest’’ scenario eliminating harvests on public lands would result in an annual increase of 17–29 million metric tonnes of carbon (MMTC) per year between 2010 and 2050—as much as a 43% increase over current sequestration levels on public timberlands and would offset up to 1.5% of total U.S. GHG emissions. In contrast, moving to a more intense harvesting policy similar to that which prevailed in the 1980s may result in annual carbon losses of 27–35 MMTC per year between 2010 and 2050. These losses would represent a significant decline (50–80%) in anticipated carbon sequestration associated with the existing timber harvest policies. If carbon sequestration were valued in the marketplace as part of a GHG offset program, the economic value of sequestered carbon on public lands could be substantial relative to timber harvest revenues. Public timberland; Forestry; Climate change; Carbon sequestration
WHY FORESTS ARE PIVOTAL IN PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
17 slides show carbon-forest relationships including logging and carbon in US forests
Spatial relationship between climatologies and changes in global vegetation activity
Vegetation forms a main component of the terrestrial biosphere and plays a crucial role in land-cover and climate- related studies. Activity of vegetation systems is commonly quantified using remotely sensed vegetation indices (VI). Extensive reports on temporal trends over the past decades in time series of such indices can be found in literature. However, little remains known about the processes underlying these changes at large spatial scales. In this study, we aimed at quantifying the spatial relationship between changes in potential climatic growth constraints (i.e. temperature, precipitation and incident solar radiation) and changes in vegetation activity (1982–2008). We demonstrate an additive spatial model with 0.5° resolution, consisting of a regression component representing climate-associated effects and a spatially correlated field representing the combined influence of other factors, including land-use change. Little over 50% of the spatial variance could be attributed to changes in climatologies; conspicuously, many greening trends and browning hotspots in Argentina and Australia. The nonassociated model component may contain large- scale human interventions, feedback mechanisms or natural effects, which were not captured by the climatologies. Browning hotspots in this component were especially found in subequatorial Africa. On the scale of land-cover types, strongest relationships between climatologies and vegetation activity were found in forests, including indications for browning under warming conditions (analogous to the divergence issue discussed in dendroclimatology). Keywords: climate- and human-induced change, climatologies, Gaussian random field, growth constraints, regression, spatial additive model, vegetation-activity trends
Phylogenetic trees and the future of mammalian biodiversity
Phylogenies describe the origins and history of species. However, they can also help to predict species’ fates and so can be useful tools for managing the future of biodiversity. This article starts by sketching how phylogenetic, geographic, and trait information can be combined to elucidate present mammalian diversity patterns and how they arose. Recent diversification rates and standing diversity show different geographic patterns, indicating that cra- dles of diversity have moved over time. Patterns in extinction risk reflect both biological differences among mammalian lineages and differences in threat intensity among regions. Phylogenetic com- parative analyses indicate that for small-bodied mammals, extinc- tion risk is governed mostly by where the species live and the intensity of the threats, whereas for large-bodied mammals, eco- logical differences also play an important role. This modeling approach identifies species whose intrinsic biology renders them particularly vulnerable to increased human pressure. We outline how the approach might be extended to consider future trends in anthropogenic drivers, to identify likely future battlegrounds of mammalian conservation, and the likely casualties. This framework could help to highlight consequences of choosing among different future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios. We end by discussing priority-setting, showing how alternative currencies for diversity can suggest very different priorities. We argue that aiming to maximize long-term evolutionary responses is inappropriate, that conservation planning needs to consider costs as well as benefits, and that proactive conservation of largely intact systems should be part of a balanced strategy. extinction risk latent risk mammals
Variability, contingency and rapid change in recent subarctic alpine tree line dynamics
Summary 1 Boundaries between forest and tundra ecosystems, tree lines, are expected to advance in altitude and latitude in response to climate warming. However, varied responses to 20th century warming suggest that in addition to temperature, tree line dynamics are mediated by species-specific traits and environmental conditions at landscape and local scales. 2 We examined recent tree line dynamics at six topographically different, but climatic- ally similar, sites in south-west Yukon, Canada. Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct changes in density of the dominant tree species, white spruce (Picea glauca), and to construct static age distributions of willow (Salix spp.), one of two dominant shrub genera. Data were analysed to identify periods and rates of establish- ment and mortality and to relate these to past climate. 3 Tree line elevation and stand density increased significantly during the early to mid 20th century. However, this change was not uniform across sites. Spruce advanced rapidly on south-facing slopes and tree line rose 65 – 85 m in elevation. Tree line did not advance on north-facing slopes, but stand density increased 40–65%. Differences observed between aspects were due primarily to the differential presence of permafrost. Additional variability among sites was related to slope and vegetation type. Results were less conclusive for willow, but evidence for an advance was found at two sites. 4 Increases in stand density were strongly correlated with summer temperatures. The period of rapid change coincided with a 30-year period of above average temperatures, beginning in 1920. The highest correlations were obtained using a forward average of 30 – 50 years, supporting the hypothesis that tree line dynamics are controlled more by conditions influencing recruitment than by establishment alone. 5 The changes observed at several sites are suggestive of a threshold response and challenge the notion that tree lines respond gradually to climate warming. Overall, the results provide further evidence to support the idea that the pattern and timing of change is contingent on local, landscape, and regional-scale factors, as well as species’ biology. Key-words: climate change, dendroecology, ecotones, forest-tundra, non-linearity, Picea glauca, Salix glauca, stand dynamics, timberline, Yukon
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Incentives: A Summary of Federal Programs
Summary Energy is crucial to the operation of a modern industrial and services economy. Recently, there have been growing concerns about the availability and cost of energy and about environmental impacts of fossil energy use. Those concerns have rekindled interest in energy efficiency, energy conservation, and the development and commercialization of renewable energy technologies. Many of the existing energy efficiency and renewable energy programs have authorizations tracing back to the 1970s. Many of the programs have been reauthorized and redesigned repeatedly to meet changing economic factors. The programs apply broadly to sectors ranging from industry to academia, and from state and local governments to rural communities. Since 2005, Congress has enacted several major energy laws: the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005; P.L. 109-58); the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA; P.L. 110- 140); the Energy Improvement and Extension Act (EIEA), enacted as Division B of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (EESA; P.L. 110-343); and the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act (ARRA; P.L. 111-5). Each of those laws established, expanded, or modified energy efficiency and renewable energy research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) programs. The Department of Energy (DOE) operates the greatest number of efficiency and renewable energy incentive programs. The Department of the Treasury and the Department of Agriculture (USDA) operate several programs. A few programs can also be found among the Departments of Interior (DOI), Labor (DOL), Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Veterans Affairs (VA), and the Small Business Administration (SBA). This report describes federal programs that provide grants, loans, loan guarantees, and other direct or indirect incentives for energy efficiency, energy conservation, and renewable energy. For each program, the report provides the administering agency, authorizing statute(s), annual funding, and the program expiration date. The appendixes provide summary information in a tabular format and also list recently expired programs.
Massive Forest Dieback SW US
Summary: • Tree death is an important ecological process, but we don’t know very much about it. • MFD (Massive Forest Dieback) is often driven by stress from extreme climate events, rather than equilibrial mean climate conditions. • MFD occurs naturally in many forest types. However, there are indications that emerging patterns of dieback in some montane areas are being amplified by global climate change, and predictions of more extreme climate events suggest risk of increases in associated forest dieback episodes. • We cannot accurately predict the effects of climate change on montane forest ecosystems without better field data and model incorporation of species-specific thresholds of stress-induced tree mortality, and the dynamics of amplifying disturbances like insect outbreaks and fire. • CIRMOUNT could help address these knowledge gaps by fostering regional networks for long-term monitoring and research on: 1) plot-based demographies of multiple tree species across landscape and regional gradients to get data on pulses of mortality and natality; 2) tree growth using straightforward dendrometer band methods; 3) feedbacks between forest dieback, other disturbances, and overall ecosystem patterns and processes; and 4) effectiveness of mitigation strategies (e.g., thinning, prescribed burning).
THE COST OF LEAFING
Understanding the trade-offs involved for plants making leaves promises fresh insights on every scale from the plant to the planet, finds John Whitfield. Excerpt: One definition of economics is the study choice under the constraint of scarcity, and the narrowrangeofchoicesintheleafeconomics spectrum provides a vivid illus- tration of the various scarcities that dominate plants’ lives. The fact that all leaves lie fairly close to the axis of the spectrum shows that, despite the vast diversity of foliage produced over hundreds of millions of years of evolution, plants have little room for manoeuvre in how they build their leaves. “Most textbooks of ecology project the idea that there’s an almost infinite diversity of organisms,” says plant ecologist Philip Grime of the University of Sheffield, UK. “But if you look at the core biology of what organisms do with resources, you find severe constraints and trade-offs.”
The payoff of conservation investments in tropical countryside
The future of biodiversity and ecosystem services hinges on har- monizing agricultural production and conservation, yet there is no planning algorithm for predicting the efficacy of conservation investments in farmland. We present a conservation planning framework for countryside (working agricultural landscapes) that calculates the production and conservation benefits to the current baseline of incremental investments. Our framework is analogous to the use of reserve design algorithms. Unlike much countryside modeling, our framework is designed for application in data- limited contexts, which are prevalent. We apply our framework to quantify the payoff for Costa Rican birds of changing farm plot and border vegetation. We show that installing windbreaks of native vegetation enhances both bird diversity and farm income, espe- cially when complementing certain crop types. We make predic- tions that differ from those of approaches currently applied to agri-environment planning,: e.g., although habitat with trees has lower local species richness than farm plot habitats (1– 44% lower), replacing any plot habitat with trees should boost regional rich- ness considerably. Our planning framework reveals the small, targeted changes on farms that can make big differences for biodiversity. biodiversity conservation planning countryside biogeography ecological-economic models matrix
