Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Environment, vegetation and greenness (NDVI) along the North America and Eurasia Arctic transects
Satellite-based measurements of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI; an index of vegetation greenness and photosynthetic capacity) indicate that tundra environments are generally greening and becoming more productive as climates warm in the Arctic. The greening, however, varies and is even negative in some parts of the Arctic. To help interpret the space-based observations, the International Polar Year (IPY) Greening of the Arctic project conducted ground-based surveys along two >1500 km transects that span all five Arctic bioclimate subzones. Here we summarize the climate, soil, vegetation, biomass, and spectral information collected from the North America Arctic transect (NAAT), which has a more continental climate, and the Eurasia Arctic transect (EAT), which has a more oceanic climate. The transects have broadly similar summer temperature regimes and overall vegetation physiognomy, but strong differences in precipitation, especially winter precipitation, soil texture and pH, disturbance regimes, and plant species composition and structure. The results indicate that summer warmth and NDVI increased more strongly along the more continental transect.
20th-Century doubling in dust archived in an Antarctic Peninsula ice core parallels climate change and desertification in South America
Crustal dust in the atmosphere impacts Earth’s radiative forcing directly by modifying the radiation budget and affecting cloud nucleation and optical properties, and indirectly through ocean fertilization, which alters carbon sequestration. Increased dust in the atmosphere has been linked to decreased global air tempera- ture in past ice core studies of glacial to interglacial transitions. We present a continuous ice core record of aluminum deposition during recent centuries in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, the most rapidly warming region of the Southern Hemisphere; such a record has not been reported previously. This record shows that aluminosilicate dust deposition more than doubled during the 20th century, coincident with the 1°C Southern Hemisphere warming: a pattern in parallel with increasing air temperatures, decreasing relative humidity, and widespread desertification in Patagonia and northern Argentina. These results have far-reaching implications for understanding the forces driving dust generation and impacts of changing dust levels on climate both in the recent past and future. aluminosilicate dust global warming human impacts Patagonia radiative transfer
Climate Change, Aboveground-Belowground Interactions, and Species’ Range Shifts
Changes in climate, land use, fire incidence, and ecological connections all may contribute to current species’ range shifts. Species shift range individually, and not all species shift range at the same time and rate. This variation causes community reorganization in both the old and new ranges. In terrestrial ecosystems, range shifts alter aboveground-belowground interactions, influencing species abundance, community composition, ecosystem processes and services, and feedbacks within communities and ecosystems. Thus, range shifts may result in no-analog communities where foundation species and community genetics play unprecedented roles, possibly leading to novel ecosystems. Long-distance dispersal can enhance the disruption of aboveground-belowground interactions of plants, herbivores, pathogens, symbiotic mutualists, and decomposer organisms. These effects are most likely stronger for latitudinal than for altitudinal range shifts. Disrupted aboveground-belowground interactions may have influenced historical postglacial range shifts as well. Assisted migration without considering aboveground-belowground interactions could enhance risks of such range shift–induced invasions.
Evolution of Grasses and Grassland Ecosystems
The evolution and subsequent ecological expansion of grasses (Poaceae) since the Late Cretaceous have resulted in the establishment of one of Earth’s dominant biomes, the temperate and tropical grasslands, at the expense of forests. In the past decades, several new approaches have been applied to the fossil record of grasses to elucidate the patterns and processes of this ecosystem transformation. The data indicate that the development of grassland ecosystems on most continents was a multistage process involving the Pale- ogene appearance of (C3 and C4) open-habitat grasses, the mid-late Cenozoic spread of C3 grass-dominated habitats, and, finally, the Late Neogene expansion of C4 grasses at tropical-subtropical latitudes. The evolution of herbivores adapted to grasslands did not necessarily coincide with the spread of open-habitat grasses. In addition, the timing of these evolutionary and ecological events varied between regions. Consequently, region-by-region investigations using both direct (plant fossils) and indirect (e.g., stable carbon isotopes, faunas) evidence are required for a full understanding of the tempo and mode of grass and grassland evolution.
Drought’s legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die-off and portends increased future risk
Forest mortality constitutes a major uncertainty in projections of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and car- bon-cycle feedbacks. Recent drought-induced, widespread forest die-offs highlight that climate change could acceler- ate forest mortality with its diverse and potentially severe consequences for the global carbon cycle, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. How trees die during drought over multiple years remains largely unknown and pre- cludes mechanistic modeling and prediction of forest die-off with climate change. Here, we examine the physiological basis of a recent multiyear widespread die-off of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) across much of western North America. Using observations from both native trees while they are dying and a rainfall exclusion experiment on mature trees, we measure hydraulic performance over multiple seasons and years and assess pathways of accumu- lated hydraulic damage. We test whether accumulated hydraulic damage can predict the probability of tree survival over 2 years. We find that hydraulic damage persisted and increased in dying trees over multiple years and exhibited few signs of repair. This accumulated hydraulic deterioration is largely mediated by increased vulnerability to cavita- tion, a process known as cavitation fatigue. Furthermore, this hydraulic damage predicts the probability of interyear stem mortality. Contrary to the expectation that surviving trees have weathered severe drought, the hydraulic deteri- oration demonstrated here reveals that surviving regions of these forests are actually more vulnerable to future droughts due to accumulated xylem damage. As the most widespread tree species in North America, increasing vul- nerability to drought in these forests has important ramifications for ecosystem stability, biodiversity, and ecosystem carbon balance. Our results provide a foundation for incorporating accumulated drought impacts into climate–vege- tation models. Finally, our findings highlight the critical role of drought stress accumulation and repair of stress- induced damage for avoiding plant mortality, presenting a dynamic and contingent framework for drought impacts on forest ecosystems. Keywords: biosphere–atmosphere interactions, climate change, ecosystem shift, forest mortality, vegetation model, xylem cavitation, dieoff
Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians
Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environ- ments. The amphibians—frogs, salamanders, and caecilians—may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that one- third or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amphibians occur in the tropics and have small geographic ranges that make them susceptible to extinction. The increasing pressure from habitat destruction and climate change is likely to have major impacts on narrowly adapted and distributed species. We show that salamanders on tropical mountains are particularly at risk. A new and significant threat to amphibians is a virulent, emerging infec- tious disease, chytridiomycosis, which appears to be globally distributed, and its effects may be exacerbated by global warming. This disease, which is caused by a fungal pathogen and implicated in serious declines and extinctions of >200 species of amphibians, poses the greatest threat to biodiversity of any known disease. Our data for frogs in the Sierra Nevada of California show that the fungus is having a devastating impact on native species, already weakened by the effects of pollution and introduced predators. A general message from amphibians is that we may have little time to stave off a potential mass extinction. chytridiomycosis climate change population declines Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis emerging disease
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate- induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world’s forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide. heat, temperature, drought, tree mortality, forest dieoff
Afforestation Effects on Soil Carbon Storage in the United States: A Synthesis
Afforestation (tree establishment on nonforested land) is a management option for increasing terrestrial C sequestration and mitigating rising atmo- spheric carbon dioxide because, compared to nonforested land uses, afforestation increases C storage in aboveground pools. However, because terrestrial ecosystems typically store most of their C in soils, afforestation impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage are critical components of eco- system C budgets. We applied synthesis methods to identify the magnitude and drivers of afforestation impacts on SOC, and the temporal and verti- cal distributions of SOC change during afforestation in the United States. Meta-analysis of 39 papers from 1957 to 2010 indicated that previous land use drives afforestation impacts on SOC in mineral soils (overall average = +21%), but mined and other industrial lands (+173%) and wildlands (+31%) were the only groups that specifically showed categorically significant increases. Temporal patterns of SOC increase were statistically significant on former industrial and agricultural lands (assessed by continuous meta- analysis), and suggested that meaningful SOC increases require ≥15 and 30 yr of afforestation, respectively. Meta-analysis of 13C data demonstrated the greatest SOC changes occur at the surface soil of the profile, although par- tial replacement of C stocks derived from previous land uses was frequently detectable below 1 m. A geospatial analysis of 409 profiles from the National Soil Carbon Network database supported 13C meta-analysis results, indicating that transition from cultivation to forest increased A horizon SOC by 32%. In sum, our findings demonstrate that afforestation has significant, positive effects on SOC sequestration in the United States, although these effects require decades to manifest and primarily occur in the uppermost (and per- haps most vulnerable) portion of the mineral soil profile. Abbreviations: BD, bulk density; CI, confidence interval; MAP, mean annual precipitation; MAT, mean annual temperature; SOC, soil organic carbon.
Adaptive management of biological systems: A review
Adaptive Management (AM) is widely considered to be the best available approach for managing biolog- ical systems in the presence of uncertainty. But AM has arguably only rarely succeeded in improving bio- diversity outcomes. There is therefore an urgent need for reflection regarding how practitioners might overcome key problems hindering greater implementation of AM. In this paper, we present the first structured review of the AM literature that relates to biodiversity and ecosystem management, with the aim of quantifying how rare AM projects actually are. We also investigated whether AM practitioners in terrestrial and aquatic systems described the same problems; the degree of consistency in how the term ‘adaptive management’ was applied; the extent to which AM projects were sustained over time; and whether articles describing AM projects were more highly cited than comparable non-AM articles. We found that despite the large number of articles identified through the ISI web of knowledge (n = 1336), only 61 articles (<5%) explicitly claimed to enact AM. These 61 articles cumulatively described 54 separate projects, but only 13 projects were supported by published monitoring data. The extent to which these 13 projects applied key aspects of the AM philosophy – such as referring to an underlying conceptual model, enacting ongoing monitoring, and comparing alternative management actions – varied enormously. Further, most AM projects were of short duration; terrestrial studies discussed biodiversity conservation significantly more frequently than aquatic studies; and empirical studies were no more highly cited than qualitative articles. Our review highlights that excessive use of the term ‘adaptive man- agement’ is rife in the peer-reviewed literature. However, a small but increasing number of projects have been able to effectively apply AM to complex problems. We suggest that attempts to apply AM may be improved by: (1) Better collaboration between scientists and representatives from resource-extracting industries. (2) Better communication of the risks of not doing AM. (3) Ensuring AM projects ‘‘pass the test of management relevance’’.
Evaluating the Effects and Effectiveness of Post-fire Seeding Treatments in Western Forests
Key Findings• In studies that evaluated soil erosion in seeded versus unseeded controls, 78 percent revealed that seeding did not reduce erosion relative to unseeded controls. Even when seeding significantly increased vegetative cover, there was insufficient plant cover to stabilize soils within the first two years after fire. •Sixty percent of the studies reported that seeding deterred native plant recovery in the short-term. •Out of 11 papers that evaluated the ability of seeding to curtail non-native plant species invasions, 54 percent stated that seeding treatments were effective and 45 percent stated they were ineffective.• Forty papers and 67 Burned Area Reports dated between 1970 and 2006 revealed an increased use of native species and annual cereal grains/hybrids during seeding treatments over time, with native species dominating seed mixes. • From 2000 to 2007, total Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) seeding expenditures have increased substantially, reaching an average of $3.3 million per year—a 192 percent increase compared to the average spent over the previous 30 years.
Analysis of monotonic greening and browning trends from global NDVI time-series
Remotely sensed vegetation indices are widely used to detect greening and browning trends; especially the global coverage of time-series normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data which are available from 1981. Seasonality and serial auto-correlation in the data have previously been dealt with by integrating the data to annual values; as an alternative to reducing the temporal resolution, we apply harmonic analyses and non-parametric trend tests to the GIMMS NDVI dataset (1981–2006). Using the complete dataset, greening and browning trends were analyzed using a linear model corrected for seasonality by subtracting the seasonal component, and a seasonal non-parametric model. In a third approach, phenological shift and variation in length of growing season were accounted for by analyzing the time-series using vegetation development stages rather than calendar days. Results differed substantially between the models, even though the input data were the same. Prominent regional greening trends identified by several other studies were confirmed but the models were inconsistent in areas with weak trends. The linear model using data corrected for seasonality showed similar trend slopes to those described in previous work using linear models on yearly mean values. The non-parametric models demonstrated the significant influence of variations in phenology; accounting for these variations should yield more robust trend analyses and better understanding of vegetation trends.
The subnivium: a deteriorating seasonal refugium
For many terrestrial organisms in the Northern Hemisphere, winter is a period of resource scarcity and energy deficits, survivable only because a seasonal refugium – the “subnivium” – exists beneath the snow. The warmer and more stable conditions within the subnivium are principally driven by snow duration, density, and depth. In temperate regions, the subnivium is important for the overwintering success of plants and animals, yet winter conditions are changing rapidly worldwide. Throughout the Northern Hemisphere, the impacts of climate change are predicted to be most prominent during the winter months, resulting in a shorter snow season and decreased snow depth. These climatic changes will likely modify the defining qualities of the subnivium, resulting in broad-scale shifts in distributions of species that are dependent on these refugia. Resultant changes to the subnivium, however, will be spatially and temporally variable. We believe that ecologists and managers are overlooking this widespread, crucial, and vulnerable seasonal refugium, which is rapidly deteriorating due to global climate change.
The Importance of Land-Use Legacies to Ecology and Conservation
Recognition of the importance of land-use history and its legacies in most ecological systems has been a major factor driving the recent focus on human activity as a legitimate and essential subject of environmental science. Ecologists, conservationists, and natural resource policymakers now recognize that the legacies of land-use activities continue to influence ecosystem structure and function for decades or centuries—or even longer— after those activities have ceased. Consequently, recognition of these historical legacies adds explanatory power to our understanding of modern conditions at scales from organisms to the globe and reduces missteps in anticipating or managing for future conditions. As a result, environmental history emerges as an integral part of ecological science and conservation planning. By considering diverse ecological phenomena, ranging from biodiversity and biogeochemical cycles to ecosystem resilience to anthropogenic stress, and by examining terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in temperate to tropical biomes, this article demonstrates the ubiquity and importance of land-use legacies to environmental science and management. Keywords: land use, disturbance, conservation, ecosystem process, natural resource management
The potential transient dynamics of forests in New England under historical and projected future climate change
Projections of vegetation distribution that incorporate the transient responses of vegetation to climate change are likely to be more efficacious than those that assume an equilibrium between climate and vegetation. We examine the non-equilibrium dynamics of a temperate forest region under historic and projected future climate change using the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS. We parameterized LPJ-GUESS for the New England region of the United Sates utilizing eight forest cover types that comprise the regionally dominant species. We developed a set of climate data at a monthly-step and a 30-arc second spatial resolution to run the model. These datasets consist of past climate observations for the period 1901–2006 and three general circulation model projections for the period 2007–2099. Our baseline (1971–2000) simulation reproduces the distribution of forest types in our study region as compared to the National Land Cover Data 2001 (Kappa statistic00.54). Under historic and nine future climate change scenarios, maple-beech-basswood, oaks and aspen- birch were modeled to move upslope at an estimated rate of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5 myr−1 from 1901 to 2006, and continued this trend at an accelerated rate of around 0.5, 0.9 and 1.7 myr−1 from 2007 to 2099. Spruce-fir and white pine-cedar were modeled to contract to mountain ranges and cooler regions of our study region under projected future climate change scenarios. By the end of the 21st century, 60% of New England is projected to be dominated by oaks relative to 21% at the beginning of the 21st century, while northern New England is modeled to be dominated by aspen-birch. In mid and central New England, maple-beech-basswood, yellow birch-elm and hickories co-occur and form novel species associations. In addition to warming-induced northward and upslope shifts, climate change causes more complex changes in our simulations, such as reversed conversions between forest types that currently share similar bioclimatic ranges. These results underline the importance of considering community interactions and transient dynamics in modeling studies of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems.
The Impact of Boreal Forest Fire on Climate Warming
We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ± 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (−2.3 ± 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.
Food-Miles and the Relative Climate Impacts of Food Choices in the United States
Despite significant recent public concern and media attention to the environmental impacts of food, few studies in the United States have systematically compared the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with food production against long-distance distribution, aka “food-miles.” We find that although food is transported long distances in general (1640 km delivery and 6760 km life-cycle supply chain on average) the GHG emissions associated with food are dominated by the production phase, contributing 83% of the average U.S. household’s 8.1 t CO2e/yr footprint for food consumption. Transportation as a whole represents only 11% of life-cycle GHG emissions, and final delivery from producer to retail contributes only 4%. Different food groups exhibit a large range in GHG-intensity; on average, red meat is around 150% more GHG- intensive than chicken or fish. Thus, we suggest that dietary shift can be a more effective means of lowering an average household’s food-related climate footprint than “buying local.” Shifting less than one day per week’s worth of calories from red meat and dairy products to chicken, fish, eggs, or a vegetable-based diet achieves more GHG reduction than buying all locally sourced food.
Five Stages of Climate Grief
University of Montana Professor, climate scientist, and Nobel Peace Prize winner Steve W. Running has written about "The 5 Stages of Climate Grief." Modeled after Elisabeth Kubler- Ross's Five Stages of Grief model, Running's essay focuses on understanding each stage to move to the final stage of acceptance more easily. Running explains how people must accept global warming as a problem before they resolve to do something about it.
Robust spatially aggregated projections of climate extremes
Many climatic extremes are changing1–5, and decision-makers express a strong need for reliable information on further changes over the coming decades as a basis for adaptation strategies. Here, we demonstrate that for extremes stakeholders will have to deal with large irreducible uncertainties on local to regional scales as a result of internal variability, even if climate models improve rapidly. A multimember initial condition ensemble carried out with an Earth system model shows that trends towards more intense hot and less intense cold extremes may be masked or even reversed locally for the coming three to five decades even if greenhouse gas emissions rapidly increase. Likewise, despite a long-term trend towards more intense precipitation and longer dry spells, multidecadal trends of op- posite sign cannot be excluded over many land points. However, extremes may dramatically change at a rate much larger than anticipated from the long-term signal. Despite these large irreducible uncertainties on the local scale, projections are remarkably consistent from an aggregated spatial probability perspective. Models agree that within only three decades about half of the land fraction will see significantly more intense hot extremes. We show that even in the short term the land fraction experiencing more intense precipitation events is larger than expected from internal variability. The proposed perspective yields valuable information for decision-makers and stakeholders at the international level.
Managing Wildfire Risk in Fire-Prone Landscapes: How Are Private Landowners Contributing?
The fire-prone landscapes include both public and private lands. Wildfire burns indiscriminately across property boundaries, which means that the way potential fuels are managed on one piece of property can affect wildfire risk on neighboring lands. KeY FINdINGS • Private forest landowners who perceive great fire risk or are concerned about hazardous fuel conditions on nearby public lands are more likely to reduce fuels on their properties and cooperate with public agencies on fuel reduction. • Most private landowners surveyed reduce fuel independently, rather than in cooperation with others, primarily because of distrust and social norms about private property ownership. • Forest owners who live on a forested parcel of land are much more likely to reduce fuels on that parcel than are owners who maintain residences elsewhere. • Limited opportunity to offset the costs of fuel reduction (e.g., with public incentive programs or income from markets for logs and wood products) poses greater constraints to fuel reduction by private forest owners than does lack of knowledge or skills.
Relationships of Fire and Precipitation Regimes in Temperate Forests of the Eastern United States
Fire affects virtually all terrestrial ecosystems but occurs more commonly in some than in others. This paper investigates how climate, specifically the moisture regime, influences the flammability of different landscapes in the eastern United States. A previous study of spatial differ- ences in fire regimes across the central Appalachian Mountains suggested that intra-annual precipitation variability influences fire occurrence more strongly than does total annual precipitation. The results presented here support that conclusion. The relationship of fire occurrence to moisture regime is also considered for the entire eastern United States. To do so, mean annual wildfire density and mean annual area burned were calculated for 34 national forests and parks representing the major vegetation and climatic conditions throughout the eastern forests. The relationship between fire activity and two climate variables was analyzed: mean annual moisture balance [precipitation P 2 potential evapotranspiration (PET)] and daily precipitation variability (coefficient of variability for daily precipitation). Fire activity is related to both climate variables but displays a stronger relationship with precipitation vari- ability. The southeastern United States is particularly noteworthy for its high wildfire activity, which is associated with a warm, humid climate and a variable precipitation regime, which promote heavy fuel production and rapid drying of fuels. KEYWORDS: Wildfire; Fire climatology; Precipitation variability; Climatic variability
