Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Megafaunal Decline and Fall
Declines in North American megafauna populations began before the Clovis period and were the cause, not the result, of vegetation changes and increased fires.
Pleistocene Megafaunal Collapse, Novel Plant Communities, and Enhanced Fire Regimes in North America
Although the North American megafaunal extinctions and the formation of novel plant communities are well-known features of the last deglaciation, the causal relationships between these phenomena are unclear. Using the dung fungus Sporormiella and other paleoecological proxies from Appleman Lake, Indiana, and several New York sites, we established that the megafaunal decline closely preceded enhanced fire regimes and the development of plant communities that have no modern analogs. The loss of keystone megaherbivores may thus have altered ecosystem structure and function by the release of palatable hardwoods from herbivory pressure and by fuel accumulation. Megafaunal populations collapsed from 14,800 to 13,700 years ago, well before the final extinctions and during the BøllingAllerød warm period. Human impacts remain plausible, but the decline predates Younger Dryas cooling and the extraterrestrial impact event proposed to have occurred 12,900 years ago.
The Last Glacial Maximum
We used 5704 14C, 10Be, and 3 He ages that span the interval from 10,000 to 50,000 years ago (10 to 50 ka) to constrain the timing of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in terms of global ice-sheet and mountain-glacier extent. Growth of the ice sheets to their maximum positions occurred between 33.0 and 26.5 ka in response to climate forcing from decreases in northern summer insolation, tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric CO2. Nearly all ice sheets were at their LGM positions from 26.5 ka to 19 to 20 ka, corresponding to minima in these forcings. The onset of Northern Hemisphere deglaciation 19 to 20 ka was induced by an increase in northern summer insolation, providing the source for an abrupt rise in sea level. The onset of deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet occurred between 14 and 15 ka, consistent with evidence that this was the primary source for an abrupt rise in sea level ~14.5 ka.
Seasons and Life Cycles
A conceptual framework. This table is a guide to determining how individual species are responding to an extended growing season by observing the duration of peak season. The life history of a species—from the onset of greening through the end of senescence—is illustrated by the length of the solid lines. Each case represents a shift in the timing (columns) and duration (rows) of one or more species in a hypothetical three-species community that includes an early-, mid-, and late-season species. The growing season begins when the first species greens and ends when the last species senesces. The peak season (gray shaded area) occurs when all species have started and none have completed their life history. Reproductive life history events likely begin before the peak season and are completed before its end. The final row and column list changes that can be observed through frequent observations of surface greenness.
Risks of Climate Engineering
Observations indicate that attempts to limit climate warming by reducing incoming shortwave radiation risk major precipitation changes.
Phenology Feedbacks on Climate Change
A longer growing season as a result of climate change will in turn affect climate through biogeochemical and biophysical effects. SCIENCE VOL 324
The Genetic Architecture of Maize Flowering Time
Flowering time is a complex trait that controls adaptation of plants to their local environment in the outcrossing species Zea mays (maize). We dissected variation for flowering time with a set of 5000 recombinant inbred lines (maize Nested Association Mapping population, NAM). Nearly a million plants were assayed in eight environments but showed no evidence for any single largeeffect quantitative trait loci (QTLs). Instead, we identified evidence for numerous small-effect QTLs shared among families; however, allelic effects differ across founder lines. We identified no individual QTLs at which allelic effects are determined by geographic origin or large effects for epistasis or environmental interactions. Thus, a simple additive model accurately predicts flowering time for maize, in contrast to the genetic architecture observed in the selfing plant species rice and Arabidopsis.
Peatland Response to Global Change
Peatlands can buffer the impact of external perturbations, but can also rapidly shift to a new ecosystem type, with large gains or losses of stored carbon. VOL 326 SCIENCE
Impact of a Century of Climate Change on Small-Mammal Communities in Yosemite National Park, USA
We provide a century-scale view of small-mammal responses to global warming, without confounding effects of land-use change, by repeating Grinnell’s early–20th century survey across a 3000-meter-elevation gradient that spans Yosemite National Park, California, USA. Using occupancy modeling to control for variation in detectability, we show substantial (~500 meters on average) upward changes in elevational limits for half of 28 species monitored, consistent with the observed ~3°C increase in minimum temperatures. Formerly low-elevation species expanded their ranges and high-elevation species contracted theirs, leading to changed community composition at mid- and high elevations. Elevational replacement among congeners changed because species’ responses were idiosyncratic. Though some high-elevation species are threatened, protection of elevation gradients allows other species to respond via migration
Global Warming, Elevational Range Shifts, and Lowland Biotic Attrition in the Wet Tropics
Many studies suggest that global warming is driving species ranges poleward and toward higher elevations at temperate latitudes, but evidence for range shifts is scarce for the tropics, where the shallow latitudinal temperature gradient makes upslope shifts more likely than poleward shifts. Based on new data for plants and insects on an elevational transect in Costa Rica, we assess the potential for lowland biotic attrition, range-shift gaps, and mountaintop extinctions under projected warming. We conclude that tropical lowland biotas may face a level of net lowland biotic attrition without parallel at higher latitudes (where range shifts may be compensated for by species from lower latitudes) and that a high proportion of tropical species soon faces gaps between current and projected elevational ranges.
Impacts Research Seen As Next Climate Frontier
Scientists hope the next U.S. president will devote more of the billion-dollar climate change research program to impacts SCIENCE VOL 322
From Death Comes Life: Recovery and Revolution in the Wake of Epidemic Outbreaks of Mountain Pine Beetle
Excerpt : “Part of the initial increase in nutrients and moisture under dead and dying trees is due to reduced uptake,” Rhoades says. “But the sick and dead trees are also losing needles that fall to the ground and help retain soil moisture. And, as trees decay, they release nutrients back into the system.”
More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century
A global coupled climate model shows that there is a distinct geographic pattern to future changes in heat waves. Model results for areas of Europe and North America, associated with the severe heat waves in Chicago in 1995 and Paris in 2003, show that future heat waves in these areas will become more intense, more frequent, and longer lasting in the second half of the 21st century. Observations and the model show that present-day heat waves over Europe and North America coincide with a specific atmospheric circulation pattern that is intensified by ongoing increases in greenhouse gases, indicating that it will produce more severe heat waves in those regions in the future.
Homo economicus Evolves
Economic models can benefit from incorporating insights from psychology, but behavior in the lab might be a poor guide to real-world behavior.
The Technology Path to Deep Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cuts by 2050: The Pivotal Role of Electricity
Several states and countries have adopted targets for deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, but there has been little physically realistic modeling of the energy and economic transformations required. We analyzed the infrastructure and technology path required to meet California’s goal of an 80% reduction below 1990 levels, using detailed modeling of infrastructure stocks, resource constraints, and electricity system operability. We found that technically feasible levels of energy efficiency and decarbonized energy supply alone are not sufficient; widespread electrification of transportation and other sectors is required. Decarbonized electricity would become the dominant form of energy supply, posing challenges and opportunities for economic growth and climate policy. This transformation demands technologies that are not yet commercialized, as well as coordination of investment, technology development, and infrastructure deployment.
Global Change and the Ecology of Cities
Urban areas are hot spots that drive environmental change at multiple scales. Material demands of production and human consumption alter land use and cover, biodiversity, and hydrosystems locally to regionally, and urban waste discharge affects local to global biogeochemical cycles and climate. For urbanites, however, global environmental changes are swamped by dramatic changes in the local environment. Urban ecology integrates natural and social sciences to study these radically altered local environments and their regional and global effects. Cities themselves present both the problems and solutions to sustainability challenges of an increasingly urbanized world.
Impacts of Climatic Change and Fishing on Pacific Salmon Abundance Over the Past 300 Years
The effects of climate variability on Pacific salmon abundance are uncertain because historical records are short and are complicated by commercial har- vesting and habitat alteration. We use lake sediment records of 15N and biological indicators to reconstruct sockeye salmon abundance in the Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island regions of Alaska over the past 300 years. Marked shifts in populations occurred over decades during this period, and some pronounced changes appear to be related to climatic change. Variations in salmon returns due to climate or harvesting can have strong impacts on sockeye nursery lake productivity in systems where adult salmon carcasses are important nutrient sources.
Species invasions and extinction: The future of native biodiversity on islands
Predation by exotic species has caused the extinction of many native animal species on islands, whereas competition from exotic plants has caused few native plant extinctions. Exotic plant addition to islands is highly nonrandom, with an almost perfect 1 to 1 match between the number of naturalized and native plant species on oceanic islands. Here, we evaluate several alternative implica- tions of these findings. Does the consistency of increase in plant richness across islands imply that a saturation point in species richness has been reached? If not, should we expect total plant richness to continue to increase as new species are added? Finally, is the rarity of native plant extinctions to date a misleading measure of the impact of past invasions, one that hides an extinction debt that will be paid in the future? By analyzing historical records, we show that the number of naturalized plant species has increased linearly over time on many individual islands. Further, the mean ratio of naturalized to native plant species across islands has changed steadily for nearly two centuries. These patterns suggest that many more species will become naturalized on islands in the future. We also discuss how dynamics of invasion bear upon alternative saturation scenarios and the implications these scenarios have for the future retention or extinction of native plant species. Finally, we identify invasion-motivated research gaps (propagule pressure, time-lags to extinction, abundance shifts, and loss of area) that can aid in forecasting extinction and in developing a more comprehensive theory of species extinctions. birds plants species saturation
Population Dynamical Consequences of Climate Change for a Small Temperate Songbird
Predicting the effects of an expected climatic change requires estimates and modeling of stochastic factors as well as density-dependent effects in the population dynamics. In a population of a small songbird, the dipper (Cinclus cinclus), environmental stochasticity and density dependence both influenced the population growth rate. About half of the environmental variance was explained by variation in mean winter temperature. Including these results in a stochastic model shows that an expected change in climate will strongly affect the dynamics of the population, leading to a nonlinear increase in the carrying capacity and in the expected mean population size.
Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400–1850
Closing sentence of the abstract : We conclude that small changes in Earth’s radiation budget may profoundly affect tropical rainfall.
