Landscape Partnership Resources Library
Safe Havens, Safe Passages for Vulnerable Fish and Wildlife
Some of the best-known and most-cherished mountains on Earth are set in the Canadian Rockies of British Columbia and Alberta. Indeed, the mention of Banff, Jasper, Kootenay or Yoho National Parks evokes images of snow-capped peaks, thundering falls and turquoise waters, numerous natural wonders and majestic wildlife. The adjoining Provincial Parks in British Columbia – Mount Robson, Mount Assiniboine, and Hamber – are just as spectacular, if not quite as renowned. Waterton Lakes National Park in Alberta and Glacier National Park in Montana – brought together in 1931 as an International Peace Park by the respective Rotary Clubs – exemplify international cooperation and wilderness and wildlife without borders. All 9 of these parks have been designated as World Heritage Sites in recognition of their outstanding natural importance to the common heritage of humanity.
Spatial patterns and policy implications for residential water use
The front yard makes a powerful visual statement about the occupants of the residence. As visible statements, yards are likely to induce a behavioral response on the part of neighboring residents. As an example, residents may strive to keep their yard as green and lush as their neighbors. For Kelowna, British Columbia, a highly significant positive spatial lag for summer water use implies some degree of spatial emulation in water using behavior. Other variables such as lot size, building size, assessed value, presence of a pool, etc. impact on water use as expected. The presence of a spatial lag implies a spatial multiplier for water saving innovations. If local water managers and policy makers can influence the spatial pattern of water saving innovations, they may be able to increase the size of the multiplier effect. Similar spatial policies may also be applicable to other socially influenced behaviors that leave a spatial signature, such as protecting ecologically significant habitats in urban areas
How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring?
Climate models and satellite observations both indicate that the total amount of water in the atmosphere will increase at a rate of 7% per kelvin of surface warming. However, the climate models predict that global precipitation will increase at a much slower rate of 1 to 3% per kelvin. A recent analysis of satellite observations does not support this prediction of a muted response of precipitation to global warming. Rather, the observations suggest that precipitation and total atmospheric water have increased at about the same rate over the past two decades. SCIENCE VOL 317 13 JULY 2007
Predicting satellite-derived patterns of large-scale disturbances in forests of the Pacific Northwest Region in response to recent climatic variation
Across the Pacific Northwest, the climate between 1950 and 1975 was exceptionally cool and wet compared with more recent conditions (1995–2005). We reasoned that the changes in climate could result in expanded outbreaks of insects, diseases, and fire. To test this premise, we first modeled monthly variation in photosynthesis and growth of the most widely distributed species, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), using a process-based model (3-PG) for the two periods. To compare with remotely sensed variables, we converted modeled growth potential into maximum leaf area index (LAImax), which was predicted to range from 1 to 9 across the region. On most sites, varying soil moisture storage capacity (θcap) from 200 to 300 mm while holding soil fertility constant, made slight but insignificant difference in simulated LAImax patterns. Both values of θcap correlated well with LAI estimates acquired from NASA's MODIS satellites in June, 2005 (r2= 0.7). To evaluate where 15 coniferous tree species might be prone to wide-scale disturbance, we used climatically-driven decision-tree models, calibrated in the 1950–1975 period, to identify vulnerable areas in 1995–2005. We stratified predictions within 34 recognized ecoregions and compared these results with large-scale disturbances recorded on MODIS imagery acquired between 2005 and 2009. The correlation between the percent of species judged as vulnerable within each ecoregion and the percent of forested areas recorded as disturbed with a MODIS-derived Global Disturbance Index was linear and accounted for 65 to 73% of the observed variation, depending on whether or not disturbance by fire was excluded from the analysis. Based on climate projections through the rest of the rest of the 21st century, we expect continued high levels of disturbance in ecoregions located beyond the climatically buffering influence of the Pacific Ocean.
Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau’s woods are driven by climate change
Climate change has led to major changes in the phenology (the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) of some species but not others. The extent to which flowering-time response to temperature is shared among closely related species might have important consequences for community-wide patterns of species loss under rapid climate change. Henry David Thoreau initiated a dataset of the Concord, Massachusetts, flora that spans !150 years and provides information on changes in species abundance and flowering time. When these data are analyzed in a phylogenetic context, they indicate that change in abundance is strongly correlated with flowering-time response. Species that do not respond to temperature have decreased greatly in abundance, and include among others anemones and buttercups [Ranunculaceae pro parte (p.p.)], asters and campanulas (Asterales), bluets (Rubiaceae p.p.), bladderworts (Lentibulariaceae), dogwoods (Cornaceae), lilies (Liliales), mints (Lamiaceae p.p.), orchids (Orchidaceae), roses (Rosaceae p.p.), saxifrages (Saxifragales), and violets (Malpighiales). Because flowering-time response traits are shared among closely related species, our findings suggest that climate change has affected and will likely continue to shape the phylogenetically biased pattern of species loss in Thoreau’s woods PNAS ! November 4, 2008 ! vol. 105 ! no. 44 ! 17029–17033
Are we in the midst of the sixth mass extinction? A view from the world of amphibians
Many scientists argue that we are either entering or in the midst of the sixth great mass extinction. Intense human pressure, both direct and indirect, is having profound effects on natural environments. The amphibians—frogs, salamanders, and caecilians—may be the only major group currently at risk globally. A detailed worldwide assessment and subsequent updates show that onethird or more of the 6,300 species are threatened with extinction. This trend is likely to accelerate because most amphibians occur in the tropics and have small geographic ranges that make them susceptible to extinction. The increasing pressure from habitat destruction and climate change is likely to have major impacts on narrowly adapted and distributed species. We show that salamanders on tropical mountains are particularly at risk. A new and significant threat to amphibians is a virulent, emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, which appears to be globally distributed, and its effects may be exacerbated by global warming. This disease, which is caused by a fungal pathogen and implicated in serious declines and extinctions of >200 species of amphibians, poses the greatest threat to biodiversity of any known disease. Our data for frogs in the Sierra Nevada of California show that the fungus is having a devastating impact on native species, already weakened by the effects of pollution and introduced predators. A general message from amphibians is that we may have little time to stave off a potential mass extinction. 11466–11473 PNAS August 12, 2008 vol. 105 suppl. 1
Volcanic cause of catastrophe
From the timing, it looks as if an episode of marked oceanic oxygen deficiency during the Cretaceous was the result of undersea volcanism. Studies of such events are relevant to the warming world of today. NATURE|Vol 454|17 July 2008
Why Is Climate Sensitivity So Unpredictable?
Uncertainties in projections of future climate change have not lessened substantially in past decades. Both models and observations yield broad probability distributions for long-term increases in global mean temperature expected from the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, with small but finite probabilities of very large increases. We show that the shape of these probability distributions is an inevitable and general consequence of the nature of the climate system, and we derive a simple analytic form for the shape that fits recent published distributions very well. We show that the breadth of the distribution and, in particular, the probability of large temperature increases are relatively insensitive to decreases in uncertainties associated with the underlying climate processes. VOL 318 26 OCTOBER 2007
Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World
: Conservation decisions about how, when, and where to act are typically based on our expectations for the future. When the world is highly unpredictable and we are working from a limited range of expectations, however, our expectations will frequently be proved wrong. Scenario planning offers a framework for developing more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. A scenario in this context is an account of a plausible future. Scenario planning consists of using a few contrasting scenarios to explore the uncertainty surrounding the future consequences of a decision. Ideally, scenarios should be constructed by a diverse group of people for a single, stated purpose. Scenario planning can incorporate a variety of quantitative and qualitative information in the decision-making process. Often, consideration of this diverse information in a systemic way leads to better decisions. Furthermore, the participation of a diverse group of people in a systemic process of collecting, discussing, and analyzing scenarios builds shared understanding. The robustness provided by the consideration of multiple possible futures has served several groups well; we present examples from business, government, and conservation planning that illustrate the value of scenario planning. For conservation, major benefits of using scenario planning are (1) increased understanding of key uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into conservation planning, and (3) greater resilience of decisions to surprise.
Unburnable Carbon – Are the world’s financial markets carrying a carbon bubble?
The Carbon Tracker initiative is a new way of looking at the carbon emissions problem. It is focused on the fossil fuel reserves held by publically listed companies and the way they are valued and assessed by markets. Currently financial markets have an unlimited capacity to treat fossil fuel reserves as assets. As governments move to control carbon emissions, this market failure is creating systemic risks for institutional investors, notably the threat of fossil fuel assets becoming stranded as the shift to a low-carbon economy accelerates.
U.S. Forest Carbon and Climate Change Controversies and Win-Win Policy Approaches
As consensus grows about the serious impacts of global climate change, the role of forests in carbon storage is increasingly recognized. Terrestrial vegetation worldwide currently removes about 24 percent of the greenhouse gases released by industrial processes. Unfortunately, this contribution is approximately cancelled out by carbon released as a result of global deforestation and other ecosystem changes. Slowing or halting the rate of deforestation is thus one of the prime strategies to mitigate global climate change. The U.S. situation differs from the global one in several ways. Since both forest acres and average biomass per forest acre are currently increasing, as U.S. forests recover from past clearing or heavy harvest, our forest carbon stores are growing larger over time. However, our high rate of industrial emissions means that only about 10 percent of the carbon released from burning fossil fuels in the United States is captured by our forests. Moreover, net U.S. forest carbon sequestration has begun to slow in recent years as reforestation reaches its limits and development sprawls into more rural forested areas. U.S. forests could possibly capture a much higher portion of our industrial emissions, but only if we prevent forest conversion and development and manage our forests to maximize carbon stores.
TRY – a global database of plant traits
Plant traits – the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants and their organs – determine how primary producers respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, influence ecosystem processes and services and provide a link from species richness to ecosystem functional diversity. Trait data thus represent the raw material for a wide range of research from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology to biogeography. Here we present the global database initiative named TRY, which has united a wide range of the plant trait research community worldwide and gained an unprecedented buy-in of trait data: so far 93 trait databases have been contributed. The data repository currently contains almost three million trait entries for 69 000 out of the world’s 300 000 plant species, with a focus on 52 groups of traits characterizing the vegetative and regeneration stages of the plant life cycle, including growth, dispersal, establishment and persistence. A first data analysis shows that most plant traits are approximately log-normally distributed, with widely differing ranges of variation across traits. Most trait variation is between species (interspecific), but significant intraspecific variation is also documented, up to 40% of the overall variation. Plant functional types (PFTs), as commonly used in vegetation models, capture a substantial fraction of the observed variation – but for several traits most variation occurs within PFTs, up to 75% of the overall variation. In the context of vegetation models these traits would better be represented by state variables rather than fixed parameter values. The improved availability of plant trait data in the unified global database is expected to support a paradigm shift from species to trait-based ecology, offer new opportunities for synthetic plant trait research and enable a more realistic and empirically grounded representation of terrestrial vegetation in Earth system models.
Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming
Historical evidence shows that atmospheric greenhouse gas (GhG) concentrations increase during periods of warming, implying a positive feedback to future climate change. We quantified this feedback for CO2 and CH4 by combining the mathematics of feedback with empirical icecore information and general circulation model (GCM) climate sensitivity, finding that the warming of 1.5 –4.5C associated with anthropogenic doubling of CO2 is amplified to 1.6– 6.0C warming, with the uncertainty range deriving from GCM simulations and paleo temperature records. Thus, anthropogenic emissions result in higher final GhG concentrations, and therefore more warming, than would be predicted in the absence of this feedback. Moreover, a symmetrical uncertainty in any component of feedback, whether positive or negative, produces an asymmetrical distribution of expected temperatures skewed toward higher temperature. For both reasons, the omission of key positive feedbacks and asymmetrical uncertainty from feedbacks, it is likely that the future will be hotter than we think. Citation: Torn, M. S., and J. Harte (2006), Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming.
The Wheel of Life Food, Climate, Human Rights, and the Economy
The links between climate change and industrial agriculture create a nexus of crises—food insecurity, natural resource depletion and degradation, as well as human rights violations and inequities. While it is widely recognized that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to human activity are detrimental to the natural environment, it can be difficult to untangle the cascading effects on other sectors. To unravel some of the effects, this paper focuses on three interrelated issues: 1) What are the critical links between climate change and agriculture? 2) How is the nexus of agriculture and climate change affecting human societies particularly regarding food and water, livelihoods, migration, gender equality, and other basic survival and human rights? 3) What is the interplay between economic and finance systems, on the one hand, and food security, climate change, and fundamental human rights, on the other? In the process of drawing connections among these issues, the report will identify the commonality of drivers, or “push” factors, that lead to adverse impacts. A central theme throughout this report is that policies and practices must begin with the ecological imperative in order to ensure authentic security and stability on all fronts including food, water, livelihoods and jobs, climate, energy, and economic. In turn this engenders equity, social justice, and diverse cultures. This imperative, or ethos of nature, is a foundation that serves as a steady guide when reviewing mitigation and adaptation solutions to climate change. Infused within this theme is the sobering recognition that current consumption and production patterns are at odds with goals of reducing GHGs and attaining global food security. For instance, consumption and production levels, based on the global average, are 25 percent higher than the earth’s ecological capacity.1 As societies address the myriad ecological and social issues at the axis of global warming, a central task will be to re-align consumption and production trends in a manner that can fulfill economic and development requirements. This will require a major shift away from present economic growth paradigms based on massive resource extraction and toward creating prosperous and vital societies and economies that preserve the planet’s environmental capacity
The Holocene`
Combining nine tree growth proxies from four sites, from the west coast of Norway to the Kola Peninsula of NW Russia, provides a well replicated (> 100 annual measurements per year) mean index of tree growth over the last 1200 years that represents the growth of much of the northern pine timberline forests of northern Fennoscandia. The simple mean of the nine series, z-scored over their common period, correlates strongly with mean June to August temperature averaged over this region (r = 0.81), allowing reconstructions of summer temperature based on regression and variance scaling. The reconstructions correlate significantly with gridded summer temperatures across the whole of Fennoscandia, extending north across Svalbard and south into Denmark. Uncertainty in the reconstructions is estimated by combining the uncertainty in mean tree growth with the uncertainty in the regression models. Over the last seven centuries the uncertainty is < 4.5% higher than in the 20th century, and reaches a maximum of 12% above recent levels during the 10th century. The results suggest that the 20th century was the warmest of the last 1200 years, but that it was not significantly different from the 11th century. The coldest century was the 17th. The impact of volcanic eruptions is clear, and a delayed recovery from pairs or multiple eruptions suggests the presence of some positive feedback mechanism. There is no clear and consistent link between northern Fennoscandian summer temperatures and solar forcing.
The energetic implications of curtailing versus storing solar- and wind-generated electricity
We present a theoretical framework to calculate how storage affects the energy return on energy investment (EROI) ratios of wind and solar resources. Our methods identify conditions under which it is more energetically favorable to store energy than it is to simply curtail electricity production. Electrochemically based storage technologies result in much smaller EROI ratios than large-scale geologically based storage technologies like compressed air energy storage (CAES) and pumped hydroelectric storage (PHS). All storage technologies paired with solar photovoltaic (PV) generation yield EROI ratios that are greater than curtailment. Due to their low energy stored on electrical energy invested (ESOIe) ratios, conventional battery technologies reduce the EROI ratios of wind generation below curtailment EROI ratios. To yield a greater net energy return than curtailment, battery storage technologies paired with wind generation need an ESOIe > 80. We identify improvements in cycle life as the most feasible way to increase battery ESOIe. Depending upon the battery's embodied energy requirement, an increase of cycle life to 10 000–18 000 (2–20 times present values) is required for pairing with wind (assuming liberal round-trip efficiency [90%] and liberal depth-of-discharge [80%] values). Reducing embodied energy costs, increasing efficiency and increasing depth of discharge will also further improve the energetic performance of batteries. While this paper focuses on only one benefit of energy storage, the value of not curtailing electricity generation during periods of excess production, similar analyses could be used to draw conclusions about other benefits as well
When the river runs dry: human and ecological values of dry riverbeds
Temporary rivers and streams that naturally cease to flow and dry up can be found on every continent. Many other water courses that were once perennial now also have temporary flow regimes due to the effects of water extraction for human use or as a result of changes in land use and climate. The dry beds of these temporary rivers are an integral part of river landscapes. We discuss their importance in human culture and their unique diversity of aquatic, amphibious, and terrestrial biota. We also describe their role as seed and egg banks for aquatic biota, as dispersal corridors and temporal ecotones linking wet and dry phases, and as sites for the storage and processing of organic matter and nutrients. In light of these valuable functions, dry riverbeds need to be fully integrated into river management policies and monitoring programs. We also identify key knowledge gaps and suggest research questions concerning the values of dry riverbeds.
Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance
Public confusion about the urgency of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions results from a basic misconception.
Rate of tree carbon accumulation increases continuously with tree size
Forests are major components of the global carbon cycle, providing substantial feedback to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations1 . Our ability to understand and predict changes in the forest carbon cycle—particularly net primary productivity and carbon storage— increasingly relies on models that represent biological processes across several scales of biological organization, from tree leaves to forest stands2,3. Yet, despite advances in our understanding of productivity at the scales of leaves and stands, no consensus exists about the nature of productivity at the scale of the individual tree4–7, in part because we lack a broad empirical assessment of whether rates of absolute treemass growth (and thus carbon accumulation) decrease, remain constant, or increase as trees increase in size and age. Here we present a global analysis of 403 tropical and temperate tree species, showing that for most species mass growth rate increases continuously with tree size. Thus, large, old trees do not act simply as senescent carbon reservoirs but actively fix large amounts of carbon compared to smaller trees; at the extreme, a single big tree can add the same amount of carbon to the forest within a year as is contained in an entire mid-sized tree. The apparent paradoxes of individual tree growth increasing with tree size despite declining leaf-level8–10 and stand-level10 productivity can be explained, respectively, by increases in a tree’s total leaf area that outpace declines in productivity per unit of leaf area and, among other factors, age-related reductions in population density. Our results resolve conflicting assumptions about the nature of tree growth,inform efforts to undertand and model forest carbon dynamics, and have additional implications for theories of resource allocation11 and plant senescence1
Managing Forests and Fire in Changing Climates
With projected climate change, we expect to face much more forest fi re in the coming decades. Policymakers are challenged not to categorize all fires as destructive to ecosystems simply because they have long fl ame lengths and kill most of the trees within the fi re boundary. Ecological context matters: In some ecosystems, high-severity regimes are appropriate, but climate change may modify these fi re regimes and ecosystems as well. Some undesirable impacts may be avoided or reduced through global strategies, as well as distinct strategies based on a forest’s historical fi re regime. SCIENCE VOL 342 4 OCTOBER 2013
