-
How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring?
-
Climate models and satellite observations both indicate that the total amount of water in the
atmosphere will increase at a rate of 7% per kelvin of surface warming. However, the climate
models predict that global precipitation will increase at a much slower rate of 1 to 3% per kelvin. A
recent analysis of satellite observations does not support this prediction of a muted response of
precipitation to global warming. Rather, the observations suggest that precipitation and total
atmospheric water have increased at about the same rate over the past two decades.
SCIENCE VOL 317 13 JULY 2007
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006
-
To distinguish between simultaneous natural and anthropogenic impacts on surface temperature, regionally as well as globally, we perform a robust multivariate analysis using the best available estimates of each together with the observed surface temperature record from 1889 to 2006. The results enable us to compare, for the first time from observations, the geographical distributions of responses to individual influences consistent with their global impacts. We find a response to solar forcing quite different from that reported in several papers published recently in this journal, and zonally averaged responses to both natural and anthropogenic forcings that differ distinctly from those indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose conclusions depended on model simulations. Anthropogenic warming estimated directly from the historical observations is more pronounced between 45°S and 50°N than at higher latitudes whereas the model-simulated trends have minimum values in the tropics and increase steadily from 30 to 70°N.
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
How the South Fights Fire with Fire, and What the West Can Learn
-
Most years Georgia intentionally burns around a million acres of forest. That’s about 30 times the size of California’s prescribed burns. Florida performs prescribed burns over twice that much land. That’s according to data from the national interagency fire center and compiled by the non-profit Climate Central.
Located in
News & Events
-
How the type of anthropogenic change alters the consequences of ecological traps
-
Understanding altered ecological and evolutionary dynamics in novel environments is vital for predicting species responses to rapid environmental change. One fundamental concept relevant to such dynamics is the ecological trap, which arises from rapid anthropogenic change and can facilitate extinction. Ecological traps occur when formerly adaptive habitat preferences become maladaptive because the cues individuals preferentially use in selecting habitats lead to lower fitness than other alternatives. While it has been emphasized that traps can arise from different types of anthropogenic change, the resulting consequences of these different types of traps remain unknown. Using a novel model framework that builds upon the Price equation from evolutionary genetics, we provide the first analysis that contrasts the ecological and evolutionary consequences of ecological traps arising from two general types of perturbations known to trigger traps. Our model suggests that traps arising from degradation of existing habitats are more likely to facilitate extinction than those arising from the addition of novel trap habitat. Importantly, our framework reveals the mechanisms of these outcomes and the substantial scope for persistence via rapid evolution that may buffer many populations from extinction, helping to resolve the paradox of continued persistence of many species in dramatically altered landscapes.
Keywords: attractive sink; evolutionary trap; habitat selection; maladaptation; Price equation; rapid evolution
Located in
Resources
/
Climate Science Documents
-
How to Add an Organization
-
Located in
Help
/
…
/
How to Use the Expertise Database
/
How to Add and Edit an Organization
-
How to Add and Edit an Organization
-
Located in
Help
/
Technical User Support
/
How to Use the Expertise Database
-
How to Add Technical Oversight Team Groups
-
How to add a group workspace for a research projects technical oversight team.
Located in
Resources
/
Help
/
Groups
-
How to Add Videos From Vimeo
-
Instructions on how to add videos from Vimeo to the portal.
Located in
Help
/
…
/
Getting Started: How To Add Content to the Portal
/
Adding Videos
-
How to Add Videos From YouTube
-
Instructions on how to add videos from YouTube to the portal.
Located in
Help
/
…
/
Getting Started: How To Add Content to the Portal
/
Adding Videos
-
How to Check Out and Check In a File
-
Tutorial describing the Check Out/Check In process for file version control.
Located in
Resources
/
Help
/
Versioning and History
