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Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas
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The dynamic nature and diversity of species’ responses to climate change poses significant difficulties for developing robust, long-term conservation strategies. One key question is whether existing protected area networks will remain effective in a changing climate. To test this, we developed statistical models that link climate to the abundance of internationally important bird populations in northwestern Europe. Spatial climate–abundance models were able to predict 56% of the variation in recent 30-year population trends. Using these models, future climate change resulting in 4.0 ◦C global warming was projected to cause declines of at least 25% for more than half of the internationally important populations considered. Nonetheless, most EU Special Protection Areas in the UK were projected to retain species in sufficient abundances to maintain their legal status, and generally sites that are important now were projected to be important in the future. The biological and legal resilience of this network of protected areas is derived from the capacity for turnover in the important species at each site as species’ distributions and abundances alter in response to climate. Current protected areas are therefore predicted to remain important for future conservation in a changing climate.
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Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes
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Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth’s surface by altering biophysical processes1–3. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo–sea ice feedback 4,5. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it other biophysical processes may overwhelm the albedo effect to generate warming instead5. Ongoing land-use activities, such as land management for climate mitigation, are occurring at local scales (hectares) presumably too small to generate the feedback, and it is not known whether the intrinsic biophysical mechanism on its own can change the surface temperature in a consistent manner6,7. Nor has the effect of deforestation on climate been demonstrated over large areas from direct observations. Here we show that surface air temper- ature is lower in open land than in nearby forested land. The effect is 0.85 6 0.44 K (mean 6 one standard deviation) northwards of 456N and 0.2160.53K southwards. Below 356N there is weak evidence that deforestation leads to warming. Results are based on comparisons of temperature at forested eddy covariance towers in the USA and Canada and, as a proxy for small areas of cleared land, nearby surface weather stations. Night-time temperature changes unrelated to changes in surface albedo are an important contributor to the overall cooling effect. The observed latitudinal dependence is consistent with theoretical expectation of changes in energy loss from convection and radiation across latitudes in both the daytime and night-time phase of the diurnal cycle, the latter of which remains uncertain in climate models8.
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Observed relation between evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the North American monsoon region
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Soil moisture control on evapotranspiration is poorly understood in ecosystems experiencing seasonal greening. In this study, we utilize a set of multi-year observations at four eddy covariance sites along a latitudinal gradient in vegetation greening to infer the ET-q relation during the North American monsoon. Results reveal significant seasonal, interannual and ecosystem variations in the observed ET-q relation directly linked to vegetation greening. In particular, monsoon-dominated ecosystems adjust their ET-q relation, through changes in unstressed ET and plant stress threshold, to cope with differences in water availability. Comparisons of the observed relations to the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset reveal large biases that increase where vegetation greening is more significant. The analysis presented here can be used to guide improvements in land surface model parameterization in water-limited ecosystems.
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Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000
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Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier
and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term
response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show
that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle.
Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate
models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 T 5% per degree
of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate
models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will
occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.
SCIENCE VOL 336
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OCEAN–ATMOSPHERE COUPLING Mesoscale eddy effects
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1st paragraph: Because of its enormous heat capacity, the ocean plays a critical role in regulating the Earth’s climate. Up to about a decade ago, it was generally believed that, outside the tropics, the ocean responds only passively to atmospheric forcing1. However, with the advent of satellite measurements of sea surface temperature and surface winds with resolutions down to about 50 km, it became apparent that the strong gradients in sea surface temperature that are associated with meanders in the Gulf Stream, the California Current and most other ocean currents can directly affect surface winds1–3.
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Ohio Department of Natural Resources: Division of Forestry
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The Division of Forestry is responsible for the management, sustainable use, and protection of Ohio’s forests.
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Oklahoma 1997.pdf
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NIC-PEK
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OLD National Capital Region's Biennial Spotlight on National Park Resources
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Old Trees: Extraction, Conservation Can Coexist
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BECAUSE LARGE OLD TREES ARE ESSENTIAL FOR FOREST ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY AND BIODIVERsity,
timber extraction in managed forests should preferentially be concentrated where large old
trees are least likely to develop (“Global decline in large old trees,” D. B. Lindenmayer et al.,
Perspectives, 7 December 2012, p. 1305). However, timber extraction and the conservation of
large old trees are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
Current forest policy and management practices in Flanders, Belgium, aim to convert
even-aged stands (areas in which trees are all the same age) to stands with trees of varying
ages in an effort to increase forest ecosystem stability and resilience and to allow trees to
grow old. As part of their ecologically sustainable forest management, public forest managers
have adopted a large-tree retention approach [see also (1, 2)]. Tree islands within
stands managed for production of high-quality timber are reserved for conservation, and
trees within these islands will never be extracted. Large old trees of commercially valuable
species that have grown beyond the commercially optimal dimensions will
not be logged either. And no tree beyond a threshold diameter [currently set at
dbh (diameter at breast height) of more than 102 cm] will ever be logged. The
strip-shelterwood system (in which trees are cut in linear strips and surrounding
trees are given time to grow old) and the coppice-with-standards system
(in which some trees are left to grow while others around them are cut) are
two examples of forest management that allows the combination of sustainable
forest exploitation and conservation of large old trees
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Old Tutorial
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