Land use change is a key part of global
change. Deforestation, urban sprawl,
agriculture, and other human influences
have substantially altered natural ecosystems
and fragmented the global landscape.
Slowing down deforestation and
afforesting environmentally sensitive
agricultural land are important steps for
mitigating climate change. Because no
policy operates in a vacuum, however,
it’s important to consider how separate
climate mitigation policies might interact
with each other.
Ralph Alig, a scientist with the Pacific
Northwest Research Station, and his colleagues
evaluated the potential impacts
of policy instruments available for climate
change mitigation. By using the
Forest and Agriculture Sector Optimization
Greenhouse Gases model, the
researchers analyzed how land might
shift between forestry and agriculture
and to more developed uses depending
on different land use policies and several
carbon pricing scenarios. They also
examined the likely effects on timber,
crop prices, and bioenergy production
if landowners were paid to sequester
carbon on their land. The researchers
found that projected competition for raw
materials is greatest in the short term,
over the first 25 years of the 50-year
projections.
Climate change is occurring within a
matrix of other changes. By 2050, an additional
3 billion people are expected to
be living on Earth, needing food, clean
water, and places to live. Incentives
for landowners to maintain undeveloped
land will be vital to sequestering
carbon and providing other services of
intact ecosystems
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