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Understanding strategies for seed dispersal by wind under contrasting atmospheric conditions
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Traits associated with seed dispersal vary tremendously among sympatric wind-dispersed plants. We used two contrasting tropical tree species, seed traps, micrometeorology, and a mechanistic model to evaluate how variation in four key traits affects seed dispersal by wind. The conceptual framework of movement ecology, wherein external factors (wind) interact with internal factors (plant traits) that enable movement and determine when and where movement occurs, fully captures the variable inputs and outputs of wind dispersal models and informs their interpretation. We used model calculations to evaluate the spatial pattern of dispersed seeds for the 16 factorial combinations of four traits. The study species differed dramatically in traits related to the timing of seed release, and a strong species by season interaction affected most aspects of the spatial pattern of dispersed seeds. A rich interplay among plant traits and seasonal differences in atmo- spheric conditions caused this interaction. Several of the same plant traits are crucial for both seed dispersal and other aspects of life history variation. Observed traits that limit dispersal are likely to be constrained by their life history consequences.
atmospheric turbulence conditional seed release Coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian closure (CELC) model long distance dispersal tropical forest
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Movement ecology of migration in turkey vultures
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We develop individual-based movement ecology models (MEM) to explore turkey vulture (Cathartes aura) migration decisions at both hourly and daily scales. Vulture movements in 10 migration events were recorded with satellite-reporting GPS sensors, and flight behavior was observed visually, aided by on-the-ground VHF radio-track- ing. We used the North American Regional Reanalysis dataset to obtain values for wind speed, turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), and cloud height and used a digital elevation model for a measure of terrain ruggedness. A turkey vulture fitted with a heart-rate logger during 124 h of flight during 38 contiguous days showed only a small increase in mean heart rate as distance traveled per day increased, which suggests that, unlike flapping, soaring flight does not lead to greatly increased metabolic costs. Data from 10 migrations for 724 hourly segments and 152 daily segments showed that vultures depended heavily upon high levels of TKE in the atmospheric bound- ary layer to increase flight distances and maintain preferred bearings at both hourly and daily scales. We suggest how the MEM can be extended to other spatial and temporal scales of avian migration. Our success in relating model-derived atmospheric variables to migration indicates the potential of using regional reanalysis data, as here, and potentially other regional, higher-resolution, atmospheric models in predicting changing movement patterns of soaring birds under var- ious scenarios of climate and land use change.
energetics flight meteorology
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Southern Ocean acidification: A tipping point at 450-ppm atmospheric CO2
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Southern Ocean acidification via anthropogenic CO2 uptake is expected to be detrimental to multiple calcifying plankton species by lowering the concentration of carbonate ion (CO32) to levels where calcium carbonate (both aragonite and calcite) shells begin to dissolve. Natural seasonal variations in carbonate ion concentrations could either hasten or dampen the future onset of this undersaturation of calcium carbonate. We present a large-scale Southern Ocean observational analysis that examines the seasonal magnitude and variability of CO32 and pH. Our analysis shows an intense wintertime minimum in CO32 south of the Antarctic Polar Front and when combined with anthropogenic CO2 uptake is likely to induce aragonite undersaturation when atmospheric CO2 levels reach 450 ppm. Under the IPCC IS92a scenario, Southern Ocean wintertime aragonite undersaturation is projected to occur by the year 2030 and no later than 2038. Some prominent calcifying plankton, in particular the Pteropod species Limacina helicina, have important veliger larval development during winter and will have to experience detrimental carbonate conditions much earlier than previously thought, with possible deleterious flow-on impacts for the wider Southern Ocean marine ecosystem. Our results highlight the critical importance of understanding seasonal carbon dynamics within all calcifying marine ecosystems such as continental shelves and coral reefs, because natural variability may potentially hasten the onset of future ocean acidification.
carbon cycle climate change
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Multiple movement modes by large herbivores at multiple spatiotemporal scales
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Recent theory suggests that animals should switch facultatively among canonical movement modes as a complex function of internal state, landscape characteristics, motion capacity, and navigational capacity. We tested the generality of this paradigm for free-ranging elk (Cervus elaphus) over 5 orders of magnitude in time (minutes to years) and space (meters to 100 km). At the coarsest spatiotemporal scale, elk shifted from a dispersive to a home-ranging phase over the course of 1–3 years after introduc- tion into a novel environment. At intermediate spatiotemporal scales, elk continued to alternate between movement modes. During the dispersive phase, elk alternated between encamped and exploratory modes, possibly linked to changes in motivational goals from foraging to social bonding. During the home-ranging phase, elk movements were characterized by a complex interplay between attraction to preferred habitat types and memory of previous movements across the home-range. At the finest tempo- ral and spatial scale, elk used area-restricted search while brows- ing, interspersed with less sinuous paths when not browsing. Encountering a patch of high-quality food plants triggered the switch from one mode to the next, creating biphasic movement dynamics that were reinforced by local resource heterogeneity. These patterns suggest that multiphasic structure is fundamental to the movement patterns of elk at all temporal and spatial scales tested.
elk foraging group formation motivation
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The movement ecology and dynamics of plant communities in fragmented landscapes
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A conceptual model of movement ecology has recently been advanced to explain all movement by considering the interaction of four elements: internal state, motion capacity, navigation capacities, and external factors. We modified this framework to generate predictions for species richness dynamics of fragmented plant communities and tested them in experimental landscapes across a 7-year time series. We found that two external factors, dispersal vectors and habitat features, affected species coloniza- tion and recolonization in habitat fragments and their effects varied and depended on motion capacity. Bird-dispersed species richness showed connectivity effects that reached an asymptote over time, but no edge effects, whereas wind-dispersed species richness showed steadily accumulating edge and connectivity effects, with no indication of an asymptote. Unassisted species also showed increasing differences caused by connectivity over time, whereas edges had no effect. Our limited use of proxies for movement ecology (e.g., dispersal mode as a proxy for motion capacity) resulted in moderate predictive power for communities and, in some cases, highlighted the importance of a more complete understanding of movement ecology for predicting how landscape conservation actions affect plant community dynamics.
corridors dispersal diversity life-history traits species richness
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Measuring the effectiveness of protected area networks in reducing deforestation
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Global efforts to reduce tropical deforestation rely heavily on the establishment of protected areas. Measuring the effectiveness of these areas is difficult because the amount of deforestation that would have occurred in the absence of legal protection cannot be directly observed. Conventional methods of evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas can be biased because protection is not randomly assigned and because protection can induce deforesta- tion spillovers (displacement) to neighboring forests. We demon- strate that estimates of effectiveness can be substantially im- proved by controlling for biases along dimensions that are observable, measuring spatial spillovers, and testing the sensitivity of estimates to potential hidden biases. We apply matching meth- ods to evaluate the impact on deforestation of Costa Rica’s re- nowned protected-area system between 1960 and 1997. We find that protection reduced deforestation: approximately 10% of the protected forests would have been deforested had they not been protected. Conventional approaches to evaluating conservation impact, which fail to control for observable covariates correlated with both protection and deforestation, substantially overesti- mate avoided deforestation (by over 65%, based on our estimates). We also find that deforestation spillovers from protected to un- protected forests are negligible. Our conclusions are robust to potential hidden bias, as well as to changes in modeling assump- tions. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical methods, conservation scientists and policy makers can better understand the relationships between human and natural systems and can use this to guide their attempts to protect critical ecosystem services.
avoided deforestation conservation policy empirical evaluation spatial spillovers
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Trends and missing parts in the study of movement ecology
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Movement is important to all organisms, and accordingly it is addressed in a huge number of papers in the literature. Of nearly 26,000 papers referring to movement, an estimated 34% focused on movement by measuring it or testing hypotheses about it. This enormous amount of information is difficult to review and high- lights the need to assess the collective completeness of movement studies and identify gaps. We surveyed 1,000 randomly selected papers from 496 journals and compared the facets of movement studied with a suggested framework for movement ecology, consisting of internal state (motivation, physiology), motion and navigation capacities, and external factors (both the physical environment and living organisms), and links among these com- ponents. Most studies simply measured and described the move- ment of organisms without reference to ecological or internal factors, and the most frequently studied part of the framework was the link between external factors and motion capacity. Few studies looked at the effects on movement of navigation capacity, or internal state, and those were mainly from vertebrates. For invertebrates and plants most studies were at the population level, whereas more vertebrate studies were conducted at the individual level. Consideration of only population-level averages promul- gates neglect of between-individual variation in movement, po- tentially hindering the study of factors controlling movement. Terminology was found to be inconsistent among taxa and sub- disciplines. The gaps identified in coverage of movement studies highlight research areas that should be addressed to fully under- stand the ecology of movement.
dispersal foraging migration navigation physiology
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Translocation experiments with butterflies reveal limits to enhancement of poleward populations under climate change
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There is a pressing need to predict how species will change their geographic ranges under climate change. Projections typically assume that temperature is a primary fitness determinant and that populations near the poleward (and upward) range boundary are preadapted to warming. Thus, poleward, peripheral populations will increase with warming, and these increases facilitate poleward range expansions. We tested the assumption that poleward, pe- ripheral populations are enhanced by warming using 2 butterflies (Erynnis propertius and Papilio zelicaon) that co-occur and have contrasting degrees of host specialization and interpopulation genetic differentiation. We performed a reciprocal translocation experiment between central and poleward, peripheral populations in the field and simulated a translocation experiment that included alternate host plants. We found that the performance of both central and peripheral populations of E. propertius were enhanced during the summer months by temperatures characteristic of the range center but that local adaptation of peripheral populations to winter conditions near the range edge could counteract that enhancement. Further, poleward range expansion in this species is prevented by a lack of host plants. In P. zelicaon, the fitness of central and peripheral populations decreased under extreme sum- mer temperatures that occurred in the field at the range center. Performance in this species also was affected by an interaction of temperature and host plant such that host species strongly medi- ated the fitness of peripheral individuals under differing simulated temperatures. Altogether we have evidence that facilitation of poleward range shifts through enhancement of peripheral populations is unlikely in either study species.
Lepidoptera range center range expansion range periphery
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The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss
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We discuss the existence of cryospheric “tipping points” in the Earth’s climate system. Such critical thresholds have been sug- gested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice–albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such thresh- old behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arc- tic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea- ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.
Greenland | West Antarctic | climate change | tipping point | Arctic
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Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions
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Monsoon systems influence the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. During the Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. Though details of monsoon circulations are complicated, observations reveal a defining moisture-advection feedback that dominates the seasonal heat balance and might act as an internal amplifier, leading to abrupt changes in response to relatively weak external perturbations. Here we present a minimal conceptual model capturing this positive feedback. The basic equations, motivated by observed relations, yield a threshold behavior, robust with respect to addition of other physical processes. Below this threshold in net radiative influx, Rc , no conventional monsoon can develop; above Rc , two stable regimes exist. We identify a nondimensional para- meter l that defines the threshold and makes monsoon systems comparable with respect to the character of their abrupt transition. This dynamic similitude may be helpful in understanding past and future variations in monsoon circulation. Within the restrictions of the model, we compute Rc for current monsoon systems in India, China, the Bay of Bengal, West Africa, North America, and Australia, where moisture advection is the main driver of the circulation.
Earth system | tipping element | abrupt climate change | atmospheric circulation | nonlinear dynamics
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