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Baselga 2009 climate change community modeling.pdf
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Literature
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Basic mechanism for abrupt monsoon transitions
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Monsoon systems influence the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people. During the Holocene and last glacial period, rainfall in India and China has undergone strong and abrupt changes. Though details of monsoon circulations are complicated, observations reveal a defining moisture-advection feedback that dominates the seasonal heat balance and might act as an internal amplifier, leading to abrupt changes in response to relatively weak external perturbations. Here we present a minimal conceptual model capturing this positive feedback. The basic equations, motivated by observed relations, yield a threshold behavior, robust with respect to addition of other physical processes. Below this threshold in net radiative influx, Rc , no conventional monsoon can develop; above Rc , two stable regimes exist. We identify a nondimensional para- meter l that defines the threshold and makes monsoon systems comparable with respect to the character of their abrupt transition. This dynamic similitude may be helpful in understanding past and future variations in monsoon circulation. Within the restrictions of the model, we compute Rc for current monsoon systems in India, China, the Bay of Bengal, West Africa, North America, and Australia, where moisture advection is the main driver of the circulation.
Earth system | tipping element | abrupt climate change | atmospheric circulation | nonlinear dynamics
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Beaver (Castor canadensis) mitigate the effects of climate on the area of open water in boreal wetlands in western Canada
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Shallow open water wetlands provide critical habitat for numerous species, yet they have become increasingly vulnerable to drought and warming temperatures and are often reduced in size and depth or disappear during drought. We examined how temperature, precipitation and beaver (Castor canadensis) activity influenced the area of open water in wetlands over a 54- year period in the mixed-wood boreal region of east-central Alberta, Canada. This entire glacial landscape with intermittently connected drainage patterns and shallow wetland lakes with few streams lost all beaver in the 19th century, with beaver returning to the study area in 1954. We assessed the area of open water in wetlands using 12 aerial photo mosaics from 1948 to 2002, which covered wet and dry periods, when beaver were absent on the landscape to a time when they had become well established. The number of active beaver lodges explained over 80% of the variability in the area of open water during that period. Temperature, precipitation and climatic variables were much less important than beaver in maintaining open water areas. In addition, during wet and dry years, the presence of beaver was associated with a 9-fold increase in open water area when compared to a period when beaver were absent from those same sites. Thus, beaver have a dramatic influence on the creation and maintenance of wetlands even during extreme drought. Given the important role of bea- ver in wetland preservation and in light of a drying climate in this region, their removal should be considered a wetland disturbance that should be avoided.
Beaver
Castor canadensis
Drought East-central Alberta Elk Island National Park Mixed-wood boreal Wetland conservation
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Beneficial Biofuels—The Food, Energy, and Environment Trilemma
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Exploiting multiple feedstocks, under new policies and accounting rules, to balance biofuel production, food security, and greenhouse-gas reduction.
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Bergmann’s rule and climate change revisited: Disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population
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Ecological responses to on-going climate change are numerous, diverse, and taxonomically widespread. However, with one exception, the relative roles of phenotypic plasticity and microevolution as mechanisms in explaining these responses are largely unknown. Several recent studies have uncovered evidence for temporal declines in mean body sizes of birds and mammals, and these responses have been interpreted as evidence for microevolution in the context of Bergmann’s rule—an ecogeographic rule predicting an inverse correlation between temperature and mean body size in endothermic animals. We used a dataset of individually marked red-billed gulls (Larus novaehollandiae scopulinus) from New Zealand to document phenotypic and genetic changes in mean body mass over a 47-year (1958–2004) period. We found that, whereas the mean body mass had decreased over time as ambient temperatures increased, analyses of breeding values estimated with an ‘‘animal model’’ approach showed no evidence for any genetic change. These results indicate that the frequently observed climate-change-related responses in mean body size of animal populations might be due to phenotypic plasticity, rather than to genetic microevolutionary responses.
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Beyond Predictions: Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate
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Climate change is predicted to become a major threat to biodiversity in the 21st century,
but accurate predictions and effective solutions have proved difficult to formulate. Alarming
predictions have come from a rather narrow methodological base, but a new, integrated science
of climate-change biodiversity assessment is emerging, based on multiple sources and
approaches. Drawing on evidence from paleoecological observations, recent phenological and
microevolutionary responses, experiments, and computational models, we review the insights that
different approaches bring to anticipating and managing the biodiversity consequences of
climate change, including the extent of species’ natural resilience. We introduce a framework
that uses information from different sources to identify vulnerability and to support the design of
conservation responses. Although much of the information reviewed is on species, our framework
and conclusions are also applicable to ecosystems, habitats, ecological communities, and
genetic diversity, whether terrestrial, marine, or fresh water.
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Beyond Reserves and Corridors: Policy Solutions to Facilitate the Movement of Plants and Animals in a Changing Climate
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As the Earth’s climate changes, many species will have to move across human-dominated landscapes to track suitable climates and changing ecosystems. Given the magnitude of projected future climate change, expanding and connecting reserve networks—two of the most commonly recommended adaptation strategies for protecting biodiversity in a changing climate—will be necessary but insufficient for preventing climate-induced extinctions. In the present article, we explore additional policy options that could be implemented to facilitate species movements in a changing climate. We discuss both existing and new policies that have the potential to increase landscape permeability, protect species on the move, and physically move species to address climate change.
Keywords: climate change, adaptation, species movement, policy
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Beyond Season's End
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A website created for wildlife and fisheries professionals confronting the threat of global climate change.
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Bias in the attribution of forest carbon sinks
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A substantial fraction of the terrestrial carbon sink, past and present, may be incorrectly attributed to environmental change rather than changes in forest management.
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BIG DATA as an engine for aquatic information creation
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The smartest thing, the only thing really, we can do to conserve & preserve fisheries and aquatic biodiversity as the climate warms this century is to invest our limited resources wisely.
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